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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.


lilj4425
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2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

i understand being wary of the hrrr but to think it is going to be THIS off? not likely.  this is one of those warning shots the day before a storm that you ignore at your own peril.

hrrr_ref_frzn_eus_16.png

But its by itself, no support.... I understand your optimism, but enjoy this... Early December Snows just dont happen here often.

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I'm all for these "trends," let's hope! Words from Fishel: 

"Window of opportunity between 7am and 5pm tomorrow in Triangle area where intensity driven changeover to snow is possible. All rain tomorrow night as temps are above freezing and almost isothermal from the ground to 10,000 ft! Precip may end as light snow Saturday."

 
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I haven't had a chance to look at the HRRR in depth but one thing I noticed briefly flipping through the mesoscale models is that through 21z Friday it's fairly substantially drier than all of the other models. This is true pretty much everywhere but especially as you go N and W from the heaviest totals.

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55 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS has a really dynamic look to it for western NC (that's where I was focused - could be in other areas too).  From a thermal standpoint, you can see a squeeze play going on as this system develops - the 850 zero degree line is working its way NW and backing right into the cold air in W NC....long duration event on the GFS...ya'll have winter storm warnings in the NC mtns yet?  You need them

Grit, 

Do you think the CLT/Gaston County areas will reach warning criteria?

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There is a little meso low in ne GA tommorow a.m. and that may be what Hrrr is latching onto. It probably is what will push the changeover line back up against escarpment area. Until it gets by and your back yard gets on backside , the temp profile will be screwed in NC. 

Something to keep an eye on and that has to be what the HRRR is sniffing out and explains all of nc and sc outside of the mtns staying rain. Hopefully it's wrong. I'll be holding my breathe.

 

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6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The HRRR is SUPER warm at the surface.. 37 in AVL during precip tomorrow...

It has the temps steadily climbing region wide throughout the day, even under the heaviest precip. Makes no sense without any large scale warm air advection. I would understand if it was saying some places wouldn’t wetbulb low enough, but for temps to sky rocket under the precip shield seems unlikely.

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I don't know guys, I see temperature issues in upstate and central NC as the bulk of the precip moves through on the Euro.  Just as the lowest levels get cool enough in the Triad, the 850 0 deg moves NW right into the Triad (and it is probably warmer above 850).  I think the snow maps are interpreting transition areas as all snow.  There is a changeover to some light snow in GSP to CLT Fri night and into Sat morning...same for Triad but more of it there.  I would want to be in the mtns and northern foothills...we shall see

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Just now, griteater said:

I don't know guys, I see temperature issues in upstate and central NC as the bulk of the precip moves through on the Euro.  Just as the lowest levels get cool enough in the Triad, the 850 0 deg moves NW right into the Triad (and it is probably warmer above 850).  I think the snow maps are interpreting transition areas as all snow.  There is a changeover to some light snow in GSP to CLT Fri night and into Sat morning...same for Triad but more of it there.  I would want to be in the mtns and northern foothills...we shall see

Yeah, ground truth at GSP 44/43 !! Gonna be 98% rain for me, despite a few awesome me so model runs! :(

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