DopplerWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 past 2 hrrr runs have really warmed for much of nc for tomorrow. 21z run: 23z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: past 2 hrrr runs have really warmed for much of nc for tomorrow. Thats a valid point, but curious as to why it's doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Anyone know where to get latest GSO balloon info from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Thats a valid point, but curious as to why it's doing that. because we are getting closer to the event and we are at the max range of the hrrr. if it keeps trending warmer everyone hoping for the clown maps to verify better temper their expectations quickly. have seen this song and dance many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 HRRR is kind of a disaster for almost all of NC...why did it warm so much??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Anyone know where to get latest GSO balloon info from Not me. What do think the Triad region will end up with? I'm guess 1-3 from SE to NW. I don't think the weather service is going to budge until they get obs of accumulating snow in the area. It's hard not to think that heavy rates will allow it to accumulate somewhere in the area and that dusting to 1/2 they are calling for will bust. (I THINK) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said: HRRR is kind of a disaster for almost all of NC...why did it warm so much??? That's hour 16. I'd wait and see hrb17,18,19 . You'll see once precip starts cooling bottom of the column and more blue showing up. You have to cool from top down in most locations , need rates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: past 2 hrrr runs have really warmed for much of nc for tomorrow. 21z run: 23z run: Precip was very heavy on the 21z run at that hour. It will probably end up warming but I think that's the reason on the 23z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, NCSNOW said: That's hour 16. I'd wait and see hrb17,18,19 . You'll see once precip starts cooling bottom of the column and more blue showing up. You have to cool from top down in most locations , need rates. This is hour 18 on the 23z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Weird to me that the GFS and Euro globals are warmer than the hi-res HRRR and NAM (GSP to CLT). It's usually the other way around. It being flipped would make sense if we had cold air damming....but we don't * Stands up and flips table * 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Not me. What do think the Triad region will end up with? I'm guess 1-3 from SE to NW. I don't think the weather service is going to budge until they get obs of accumulating snow in the area. It's hard not to think that heavy rates will allow it to accumulate somewhere in the area and that dusting to 1/2 they are calling for will bust. (I THINK) Agree 100%. You take all model clown outputs and roll back to 6 to 1 instead of 10 to 1 and you'll still end up with 2 to 3 SE to NW like you stated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 you can't be too surprised if it does trend warmer and most see cold rain, the setup was marginal at best for nc, many just got overexcited by 10:1 ratio snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said: This is hour 18 on the 23z. Well , your guess is as good as mine then. Have to pay attn through the night and see how this trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The 18Z GFS showed rain tomorrow with an expanding precip shield to the NW, then gradually changing to snow from west to east overnight and Saturday. That's probably the best scenario at this point. I wouldn't expect much in the way of snow tomorrow in NC outside of the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Poimen said: The 18Z GFS showed rain tomorrow with an expanding precip shield to the NW, then gradually changing to snow from west to east overnight and Saturday. That's probably the best scenario at this point. I wouldn't expect much in the way of snow tomorrow in NC outside of the mountains. agreed. as the low cranks offshore the precip should end as light snow showers for most. that is a good start to winter in my book. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 21 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: past 2 hrrr runs have really warmed for much of nc for tomorrow. 21z run: 23z run: Well, if that’s not the nail in the coffin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 HRRR is seemingly warmer because it’s not cooling the boundary layer temps as fast and slower with the heavy precipitation. Soundings still look good for Raleigh and west on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, griteater said: Weird to me that the GFS and Euro globals are warmer than the hi-res HRRR and NAM (GSP to CLT). It's usually the other way around. It being flipped would make sense if we had cold air damming....but we don't * Stands up and flips table * Looking at the free maps on weather.us for the Euro I see CLT stays below 0C for duration from 700-925mb? Looks cold to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: Looking at the free maps on weather.us for the Euro I see CLT stays below 0C for duration from 700-925mb? Looks cold to me? It's a bit too warm near the sfc IMO. I didn't realize the HRRR had warmed when I typed that. That warming makes more sense to me in all honesty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Don't think the HRRR is correct on warming the temps like that.... when the precip falls, that will cool it down, which is not what the HRRR is doing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: It's a bit too warm near the sfc IMO. I didn't realize the HRRR had warmed when I typed that. That warming makes more sense to me in all honesty Rainy afternoon for some per the 0z HRRR...maybe some flakes mix in at times, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I think a lot of people will see White Rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The temperatures will only drop if the precipitation is falling at a heavy enough rate for a sustained period of time. As soon as that lets up or stops, then temperatures go right back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: The temperatures will only drop if the precipitation is falling at a heavy enough rate for a sustained period of time. As soon as that lets up or stops, then temperatures go right back up. Yes during the day, but not at night when the heavier precip will be falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Don't think the HRRR is correct on warming the temps like that.... when the precip falls, that will cool it down, which is not what the HRRR is doing... Many a sad snow weenie has fallen into the "I think the models are overdoing the warming" trap! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Many a sad snow weenie has fallen into the "I think the models are overdoing the warming" trap! If the globals were showing it like the HRRR, I would be more inclined to believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The RAP paints a prettier picture than HRRR but its still at the end of its run. Wait and see mode. NAM coming in shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Sref is more amped than the 15z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Sref plumes are out. Triad locations took a big jump and almost doubled from the two inch range previously to the four inch range now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 It will make its own cold air. Rates will overcome 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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