BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Not only is there no warm nose at all on the RAP, we’re safely isothermal in my back yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, burrel2 said: Won't be the first time they've busted badly. January CJ said 4-6 with locally higher amounts. We got a backend dusting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Won't be the first time they've busted badly. Maybe isohume will bust badly on the wrong end for once. Wishful thinking but one can hope. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 hrrr was pretty accurate last jan but the snow line ended up ~50miles or so north of where it was forecasted, had me safely in the snow and ended up with rain and sleet. just a forewarning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said: Not to make this as too much of an IMBY post, but I just got on here and was wondering if anyone could tell me briefly how things are looking for 40 miles N of ATL? I know I've been riding the low precip/borderline cold temps train. Are things looking up for this area? Thanks! I like 1-3 there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, No snow for you said: I am going to run out of likes with post like this I can't like it, He left out franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: hrrr was pretty accurate last jan but the snow line ended up ~50miles or so north of where it was forecasted, had me safely in the snow and ended up with rain and sleet. just a forewarning. Fortunatley in this setup and with the wave moving through Friday morning the WAA is very weak. The warm nose looks like it’ll move in late Friday afternoon per NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 18z gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Hey, @WXinCanton, check this out my friend. I have been in Ellijay for a year now. This looks good for our areas! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I’ve been busy this afternoon so I’m catching up on some 12z and later runs. EPS jumped me up to a 4” mean in Davidson. Huh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, DixieBlizzard said: Hey, @WXinCanton, check this out my friend. I have been in Ellijay for a year now. This looks good for our areas! Good luck to y’all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, DixieBlizzard said: Hey, @WXinCanton, check this out my friend. I have been in Ellijay for a year now. This looks good for our areas! I don't know about you but I've been waiting on the I-20 rule to catch up and push this thing our way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: I’ve been busy this afternoon so I’m catching up on some 12z and later runs. EPS jumped me up to a 4” mean in Davidson. Huh. I think we're in good shape atm, but that 540 line is scaring me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, WarmNose said: January CJ said 4-6 with locally higher amounts. We got a backend dusting Well i was one of the lucky ones and got a good 3-3.5 here in Easley. My parents in Dacusville got 5.5! But yeah, just East of here missed on that one, but it all evens out, you guys got the Halloween snow a couple years ago and I didnt get a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, EmersonGA said: I don't know about you but I've been waiting on the I-20 rule to catch up and push this thing our way. Hey there, Emerson! It wasn't happening too fast so I wasn't sure if this thing would ever trend (expand) NW. I was assuming all points south of me would do better. We may be in the game now buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, DixieBlizzard said: Hey, @WXinCanton, check this out my friend. I have been in Ellijay for a year now. This looks good for our areas! Yes it does! Emerson looks good too, crazy to go from being fringed to stop going North! Hope all is well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 18z GEFS getting serious. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: I think we're in good shape atm, but that 540 line is scaring me. That mean just surprised me. It went up 3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 42 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I could see this one busting majorly for the upstate in a good way. If we get heavy rates tomorrow morning and quickly overcome the shallow warm air at the surface, we could be off to the races with an inch of liquid falling down as heavy sticking snow at 32/33,(plus the sun angle isn't bad at all like it is in feb/march). In the perfect scenario I think north of 85 could get 5 or 6 inches of paste. On the other hand, the shallow warm air at the surface could hold strong and we get our inch of liquid with nothing more than white rain pelting down and melting on contact all day. Warm nose at 750mb could also set up a little farther north than models show and preclude us from any snow. Odds are something goes wrong and we get mostly rain or non-sticking slop, but there is certainly a non-zero chance we get pasted with significant snow-storm. Edit to add: The southern Mountains are going to get smoked. I think that's a lock now. Highlands/cashiers/lake toxaway, towards caesar's head will get get 6 to 10 inches, IMO. Good post burrell, always like seeing your input. Your last part is a great description of the 2009 December storm, Mtns got a big one, including SC mtns, but is was just a cruel hair too warm below 2000 ft.Got a few sleet pellets mixed in in Taylors, but nothing else. That was tough one to swallow.Even though this is a different setup, it could have very similar results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Wow said: 18z GEFS getting serious. Beginning to wonder if some of the modeling is catching on to the boundary layer not being as warm as expected? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WXinCanton said: Yes it does! Emerson looks good too, crazy to go from being fringed to stop going North! Hope all is well. Two days ago, Gilmer County was going to be dry so these are good developments. You and Emerson are really in great spots according to most of the models this evening. L:et's reel this thing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Beginning to wonder if some of the modeling is catching on to the boundary layer not being as warm as expected? Well this is the GFS but it's feeling similar to last January's event where whoever is on the northern edge of the r/n is going to get a big wet snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: 18z GEFS getting serious. I like where this is headed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Everybody needs to remember the Global models don't do as well this close to an event, rely more on the HRRR and Nam for now time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 NWS Atlanta is getting worried about the NE mountains... NWS Atlanta ------------------- "Everyone....from the latest round of models, we are looking closely at the NE GA mountain counties which is an area of concern and possible area of upgrade to warning. We will discuss further on the 730 pm webinar along with what other trends/concerns we have. Model profiles are cold enough and with the precip shield showing a northwestward trend, there is more precip potential across the NE counties." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 18z RGEM just showed up... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I like areas from AVL to HKY to winston to Danville and just NW of there to get highest amounts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Here in Douglas just west of Atlanta it’s going to be feast or famine. We’ve been safely in the snow on all models but a last minute jump of 20-40 miles will screw us over. I expect to see snow falling most of the day tomorrow but little accumulation. Possibly the Xmas day storm redux here in Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 FYI, I've found this RGEM product's rain/snow/mix line to be deadly accurate in past events... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, burrel2 said: FYI, I've found this RGEM product's rain/snow/mix line to be deadly accurate in past events... Very little IP or ZR all hi Rez modles really are suggesting snow or rain and that’s it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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