The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

[franklin NCwx]

Looking like a score for the navgem.

[Lookout]

1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

If the GFS verifies I'm hitting up the Indian casino this weekend 

lol...

Well since it's been obvious it's a lost cause here I was thinking about heading to gainesville..but after this afternoons runs, it's probably a given now. gfs is a really nice long duration event for the northwestern half of the state. 

It's truly absurd how the gfs looks now when you compare it to run after run of the last several days. Gainesville went from 0.00 of precip on last NIGHT"S 0z run to around 1.5 inches on this run. It's now quite a bit wetter than even the notoriously wet nam...which shows around an inch.  ridiculous. 

1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

Looking like a score for the navgem.

and the jma i think. 

[griteater]

Just a follow up to say that a stronger system with stronger sfc low and stronger 850mb wave/low will, in fact, show more warm nosing....this is not much of an issue for Bama and GA, but would be more of an issue as you go east as the GFS shows with a stronger system now.

[griteater]

5 minutes ago, Lookout said:

It's truly absurd how the gfs looks now when you compare it to run after run of the last several days. Gainesville went from 0.00 of precip on last NIGHT"S 0z run to around 1.5 inches on this run. It's now quite a bit wetter than even the notoriously wet nam...which shows around an inch.  ridiculous. 

That's crazy.  GFS has precip from tonight into Saturday aftn for the upstate

[WarmNose]

GFS has become progressively more amp'd and has been pushing the precip shield further inland through the past couple of days but has stayed true with it's "no snow for you" line 

[calculus1]

Just released advisories for the GSP area:

[calculus1]

Here's the latest forecast update too.  My favorite part is the bolded...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 500 PM EST Thursday: New guidance trickling in continues to
trend cooler and wetter, and while the NAM remains a cold/wet
outlier, other 18z data shifting that direction lends confidence to
a slight uptick in snowfall amounts. Will continue to be a battle
between the cold air vs. moisture as is typically the case, but with
the moisture expected to now make it farther into the mountains, the
prudent course of action was to go ahead and hoist a Winter Weather
Advisory for the upslope areas of the SW mountains, including the
GA/SC mountains. Because NC`s advisory criterion is 2" in 12h and we
have that over the South Mountains in Cleveland/Burke/Rutherford
Counties, included those areas, but most locations <1500ft will be
hard pressed to see anything more than a trace/dusting at this time
(uh, with the current forecast that is - if the trends continue that
may be pushed up as well). Concern is that in the prime overlap area
of the SC mountains (QPF and temps), current forecast is getting
close to warning criteria. Will continue to watch trends through the
evening and especially with the overnight forecast.

Otherwise, guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the
precip potential for tonight and Friday. Deep moisture moves in this
evening with decent upper divergence from the right entrance region
of the upper jet. Short waves move over as the upper trough deepens
to the west. Low level isentropic lift develops as well, but remains
relatively weak with abundant moisture. Despite an overall cooling
trend in forecast temps and surface wet bulb values, they remain
above freezing through the night outside of the mountains, but do
fall below freezing across the mountains. Of course, precip chances
are lower where temps are colder since those locations are farther
away from the better forcing. Therefore, have snow developing in the
colder locations with mainly rain elsewhere. Forecast soundings show
the freezing level dropping low enough for snow to mix in north of I-
85 with a change over possible across the Northern Foothills. QPF is
light but could be enough for around half an inch of snow along and
near the NC/GA to NC/SC border mountain locations. Snow would be
less across the rest of the mountains.

Categorical precip chances continue generally along and south of I-
85 Friday with likely chances north of there across the foothills to
along the Blue Ridge. Good chance PoP west of there. Temps and
surface wet bulbs remain cold enough for the precip to fall as snow
across the mountains with a transition zone across the NC Foothills.
Outside of these areas, freezing levels may fall low enough for snow
to mix or possibly even briefly change over early in the morning
mainly along and north of the I-85 corridor. QPF has increased on
some of the guidance runs which increases the potential for advisory
level snow across the NE GA and Upstate mountains, along with the
Southern Mountains and possibly portions of the NC foothills. After
final national guidance is in, we may need to update to post an
advisory for those locations. While these accums would develop in
grassy and elevated areas, it is still questionable how much
accumulates on roads given the recent warmth and sunshine. Locations
where the precipitation will be mixed or only a brief change over,
no significant accums are expected with any small amounts limited to
grassy or elevated areas.

[odell.moton]

That's crazy.  GFS has precip from tonight into Saturday aftn for the upstate

Any of that changeover to snow


.

[Rhart]

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

Just a follow up to say that a stronger system with stronger sfc low and stronger 850mb wave/low will, in fact, show more warm nosing....this is not much of an issue for Bama and GA, but would be more of an issue as you go east as the GFS shows with a stronger system now.

Hate to banter- but what would you expect in BHM?  Not much talk of that piece of the storm

[griteater]

Just now, Rhart said:

Hate to banter- but what would you expect in BHM?  Not much talk of that piece of the storm

I would go 1-3

[BullCityWx]

There is some strong lift showing up which could indicate banding which means some places could really score and some places get rain, just because of rates.

[HKY_WX]

GFS and NAM looking pretty bullish on the snowstorm for the foothills/NW piedmont area. Thinking a general 2 to 4 is probable. If boundary layer temps were a little better, this would be a 4-8 or 5-10 type story easily. Still think it might be for certain locales in the higher elevations. It's enough for me to escape changeover hell in raleigh tonight and hope to see a few inches of snow back in Hickory this weekend.

[DC2Winston]

5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

GFS and NAM looking pretty bullish on the snowstorm for the foothills/NW piedmont area. Thinking a general 2 to 4 is probable. If boundary layer temps were a little better, this would be a 4-8 or 5-10 type story easily. Still think it might be for certain locales in the higher elevations. It's enough for me to escape changeover hell in raleigh tonight and hope to see a few inches of snow back in Hickory this weekend.

This will be my first Winter event as a Winston resident.  Moved down from DC this summer.  Maybe this could turn out decent here after all.  Thanks for the good news!

[CentralNC]

1 minute ago, CARDC79 said:

This will be my first Winter event as a Winston resident.  Moved down from DC this summer.  Maybe this could turn out decent here after all.  Thanks for the good news!

Well take it from a long time resident, keep expectations low...

[POWERSTROKE]

Average in Winston Salem is around 9 inches per year.  We generally get at least one event per year generally in Jan-Feb

[oconeexman]

Gsp put me in an advisory now..trying to not buy into it to get let down again. Esp after seeing so much evidence of warm nose.

[CaryWx]

Call it a gut feel but suspect Winston might not do too badly here. Relative to non-Mtns that is.

[franklin NCwx]

It really sucks that the rgem and cmc are not updating today.

[DC2Winston]

12 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Well take it from a long time resident, keep expectations low...

Trust me, being in DC taught me to keep expectations low.  Constantly on the rain/snow line, and with no elevation.  It was just heartening to read those comments above, especially from a Met. (Believe the PRO FORECASTER icon means a Met)

[CentralNC]

Just now, CARDC79 said:

Trust me, being in DC taught me to keep expectations low.  Constantly on the rain/snow line, and with no elevation.  It was just heartening to read those comments above, especially from a Met. (Believe the PRO FORECASTER icon means a Met)

Lots of good mets here.  HKY_WX is really trustworthy for Triad folks.  His brother (RaleighWX) not too shabby either!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Winston-Salem and the Triad have done very well relative to climatology in snow this decade. It is the Loudoun County of the NC Piedmont.

[Jonathan]

57 minutes ago, griteater said:

I mean, it basically always ends up this way right?  Frosty, Jonathon, and Big Frosty sad and moping, saying they can't buy QPF, and they end up with the good stuff.....ha, all in fun Buddy - good luck your way!

I'm really sorry if it comes off that way. I try not to poop on anyone's parade and nothing would be cooler than to see a system that gets THIS WHOLE SUBFORUM involved. That's just hard to do. I've tried to keep quiet on this one for the most part. I think I'll have mixing issues too here in the foothills. When it comes down to it, everyone roots for each other but everyone wants THEIR yard covered.

I really do hope you Raleigh guys see snow. You're due. You deserve it.

[burrel2]

I could see this one busting majorly for the upstate in a good way. If we get heavy rates tomorrow morning and quickly overcome the shallow warm air at the surface, we could be off to the races with an inch of liquid falling down as heavy sticking snow at 32/33,(plus the sun angle isn't bad at all like it is in feb/march).  In the perfect scenario I think north of 85 could get 5 or 6 inches of paste.

On the other hand, the shallow warm air at the surface could hold strong and we get our inch of liquid with nothing more than white rain pelting down and melting on contact all day.

Warm nose at 750mb could also set up a little farther north than models show and preclude us from any snow.

Odds are something goes wrong and we get mostly rain or non-sticking slop, but there is certainly a non-zero chance we get pasted with significant snow-storm.

 

Edit to add: The southern Mountains are going to get smoked. I think that's a lock now.  Highlands/cashiers/lake toxaway, towards caesar's head will get get 6 to 10 inches, IMO.

[packbacker]

6 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

I'm really sorry if it comes off that way. I try not to poop on anyone's parade and nothing would be cooler than to see a system that gets THIS WHOLE SUBFORUM involved. That's just hard to do. I've tried to keep quiet on this one for the most part. I think I'll have mixing issues too here in the foothills. When it comes down to it, everyone roots for each other but everyone wants THEIR yard covered.

I really do hope you Raleigh guys see snow. You're due. You deserve it.

 This one was never going to work out for us, glad it’s going beast mode so some folks can see snow. Not everyone can be happy...it’s going to suck for someone.  

[No snow for you]

8 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I could see this one busting majorly for the upstate in a good way. If we get heavy rates tomorrow morning and quickly overcome the shallow warm air at the surface, we could be off to the races with an inch of liquid falling down as heavy sticking snow at 32/33,(plus the sun angle isn't bad at all like it is in feb/march).  In the perfect scenario I think north of 85 could get 5 or 6 inches of paste.

On the other hand, the shallow warm air at the surface could hold strong and we get our inch of liquid with nothing more than white rain pelting down and melting on contact all day.

Warm nose at 750mb could also set up a little farther north than models show and preclude us from any snow.

Odds are something goes wrong and we get mostly rain or non-sticking slop, but there is certainly a non-zero chance we get pasted with significant snow-storm.

 

Edit to add: The southern Mountains are going to get smoked. I think that's a lock now.  Highlands/cashiers/lake toxaway, towards caesar's head will get get 6 to 10 inches, IMO.

I am going to run out of likes with post like this 

[ILMRoss]

HRRR is very aggressive on precip arrival tomorrow morning. A lot of places currently on the SE flank of the R/S line could sneak in an inch or two given this setup before warmer temperatures aloft advect in. GSO sounding is going to be important to decipher! 

[ajr]

Meanwhile HRRR is making things interesting for RDU...

[mackerel_sky]

7 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

HRRR is very aggressive on precip arrival tomorrow morning. A lot of places currently on the SE flank of the R/S line could sneak in an inch or two given this setup before warmer temperatures aloft advect in. GSO sounding is going to be important to decipher! 

I'll catch mine after changeover, about 3 am Saturday morning 

[Rainforrest]

20 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I could see this one busting majorly for the upstate in a good way. If we get heavy rates tomorrow morning and quickly overcome the shallow warm air at the surface, we could be off to the races with an inch of liquid falling down as heavy sticking snow at 32/33,(plus the sun angle isn't bad at all like it is in feb/march).  In the perfect scenario I think north of 85 could get 5 or 6 inches of paste.

On the other hand, the shallow warm air at the surface could hold strong and we get our inch of liquid with nothing more than white rain pelting down and melting on contact all day.

Warm nose at 750mb could also set up a little farther north than models show and preclude us from any snow.

Odds are something goes wrong and we get mostly rain or non-sticking slop, but there is certainly a non-zero chance we get pasted with significant snow-storm.

 

Edit to add: The southern Mountains are going to get smoked. I think that's a lock now.  Highlands/cashiers/lake toxaway, towards caesar's head will get get 6 to 10 inches, IMO.

Not according to gsp. Lol 

[burrel2]

Just now, Rainforrest said:

Not according to gap. Lol

Won't be the first time they've busted badly.