mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, SimeonNC said: Sorry if this is too banterish but for some reason even though every model has CLT getting at least some mixing tomorrow, TWC is still forecasting all rain. Your problem is looking at TWC! You'll get better, more reliable forecasts, right here! There you get GFS only forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Do any of you think they will send out Winter Storm Warnings for Danville, in Southern VA? highly doubt it. Think we get a WWA. If models keep it up tonight though we might get one in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Latest RAP(20z) is out and it continues to show RDU getting hit hard. Hour 19 to correspond to the past post with hour 20: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: I doubt GSP are going to issue any advisories other than the HWO. This system doesn’t even deserve a HWO. Maybe a SWS instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, No snow for you said: I will say the guys and gals at GSP do a great job and know the area very well. No matter what the models are showing, I would lean on them, especially as difficult as this area is to forecast. Yep! They have a difficult job covering three different geographical areas and they are the best IMO. Just look at the complexity of this one event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: How much for GFS , in your opinion, with these new runs of RAP, HRR and such!? Still mainly CAESARS HEAD and areas mainly!? We say "it's a tough call" a lot, but the HRRR and latest NAMs suggest that this is a tough call for the GSP to CLT corridor. Conservative forecast would be to go with rain, with a chance for snow to mix in. The soundings suggest that when the precip is heavy, it could very well flip to snow (I looked at Simpsonville). There is a lot of discussion about the warm nose...but I wanted to point out that the warm bubble east of Atlanta over into the upstate is where there is a pocket of above freezing air in the lower levels of the atmosphere (cold air having a tough time moving in over the mtns). As precip falls and we go toward morning, the sounding shows cooling of this lower level warmth, down to where it could be cold enough for snow. This is different from what is traditionally referred to as a warm nose where warm air is pouring in aloft from the southeast at the 850-750mb levels. In that case, the sounding shows the warmth aloft 'nosing' above freezing as opposed to lower level warmth above freezing. Bottom line: having the above freezing warm layer closer to the ground is easier to overcome than warm air pouring in aloft from the southeast. The text below is the scenario we are looking for here. That is, the 850mb low isn't closed and strong with our storm tomorrow and the warm advection aloft is staying closer to the SE coast than it is pouring inland (source - http://www.wxonline.info/topics/preciptype.html ) "Melting of Snow to Rain" "Melting snow to rain requires latent heat. This heat is taken from the surrounding air. In order to obtain substantial temperature change due to melting, it is necessary to have rather heavy amounts of precipitation falling with little or no warm advection. If this occurs, you can have heavy rain turn to heavy snow as the freezing level sinks downward due to cooling by latent heat absorption. Although this situation can occur, cases of substantial lowering of the freezing level due to melting are relatively rare because the combination of heavy precicpitation without warm air advection is rare." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 18z GFS Shifting more NW this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Thanks Grit ! Really great explanation! I really hate when you get a ton of moisture for a possible winter event and temps/ set up are so questionable! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Gfs more amped than 12z. Good run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Wow... 18z GFS is a whopper of a storm, taken verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I think the 18Z GFS is much more realistic, showing an expanding rain shield to the NW tomorrow (snow in the mountains), then changing to snow from west to east across the foothills and northern Piedmont as the entire system shifts east Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 If y'all in the upstate were holding out hope for snow, the 18z GFS , will crush your hopes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdwhynot Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Wow, this looks nice on the Meteogram Generator for KBHM, but who knows if it will materialize? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 GREAT RUN for S VA folks wow!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 50 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Here's the HRRR sounding for Friday AM at RDU along with the corresponding reflectivity map. That's a heavy, wet snow verbatim. Interesting there how it shows the strong omega (red bars on left) higher up in the 300-500mb range....indicative of the strong divergence from a very strong jet streak aloft over the northeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: If y'all in the upstate were holding out hope for snow, the 18z GFS , will crush your hopes Too warm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, rdwhynot said: Wow, this looks nice on the Meteogram Generator for KBHM, but who knows if it will materialize? Most of those use ratios that won’t be possible this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 PM Discussion from RAH does not seem too excited, at all. For anyone. Too warm, etc. 3PM update. Warmer surface temps among other negatives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: Too warm? The snow hole is back, guessing too warm! No lack of precip! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Always funny watching the S VA folks root for the NW trend that crushes the dreams of 97% of this board. Posts like "epic run of the GFS", just twist the knife. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdwhynot Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Most of those use ratios that won’t be possible this week. It's 11:1 10:1 took it down by 1/2 an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 This GFS is a weenie run for WNC, SwVA.. Climo areas look to score.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: GREAT RUN for S VA folks wow!! I mean, it basically always ends up this way right? Frosty, Jonathon, and Big Frosty sad and moping, saying they can't buy QPF, and they end up with the good stuff.....ha, all in fun Buddy - good luck your way! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 If the GFS verifies I'm hitting up the Indian casino this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: If the GFS verifies I'm hitting up the Indian casino this weekend You got room at the blackjack table? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Mt. Mitchell will really do well in this setup, over a foot is attainable above 5,000 ft 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 GFS has to be right. Cold air source filtering down the west side of the Apps is what's putting some areas in the Deep South in play and leaving the areas to the north and east with a cold rain. GFS stuck to its guns. I don't like it but I respect it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, No snow for you said: You got room at the blackjack table? Bacarat only! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, griteater said: We say "it's a tough call" a lot, but the HRRR and latest NAMs suggest that this is a tough call for the GSP to CLT corridor. Conservative forecast would be to go with rain, with a chance for snow to mix in. The soundings suggest that when the precip is heavy, it could very well flip to snow (I looked at Simpsonville). There is a lot of discussion about the warm nose...but I wanted to point out that the warm bubble east of Atlanta over into the upstate is where there is a pocket of above freezing air in the lower levels of the atmosphere (cold air having a tough time moving in over the mtns). As precip falls and we go toward morning, the sounding shows cooling of this lower level warmth, down to where it could be cold enough for snow. This is different from what is traditionally referred to as a warm nose where warm air is pouring in aloft from the southeast at the 850-750mb levels. In that case, the sounding shows the warmth aloft 'nosing' above freezing as opposed to lower level warmth above freezing. Bottom line: having the above freezing warm layer closer to the ground is easier to overcome than warm air pouring in aloft from the southeast. The text below is the scenario we are looking for here. That is, the 850mb low isn't closed and strong with our storm tomorrow and the warm advection aloft is staying closer to the SE coast than it is pouring inland (source - http://www.wxonline.info/topics/preciptype.html ) "Melting of Snow to Rain" "Melting snow to rain requires latent heat. This heat is taken from the surrounding air. In order to obtain substantial temperature change due to melting, it is necessary to have rather heavy amounts of precipitation falling with little or no warm advection. If this occurs, you can have heavy rain turn to heavy snow as the freezing level sinks downward due to cooling by latent heat absorption. Although this situation can occur, cases of substantial lowering of the freezing level due to melting are relatively rare because the combination of heavy precicpitation without warm air advection is rare." Thank you Grit for your analysis and play by play for this event, and others. It's been educational. Same goes out to Buddy, Wow, and all the others who have a nice knowledge and interpretation ability of the models. I too have been looking at the soundings of the RAP, HRRR, and NAM3 and even though it shows CLT in the green, the soundings show that pretty much the whole column is below freezing other than right near the surface. Although I know we're not going to accumulate I'm still rooting to see some snow falling from the sky tomorrow evening and night. But again, it's absolutely amazing the difference between Charlotte, and anywhere north and west of here. Charlotte/85 is ALWAYS the battleground. Excited to get into Iredell county next year. Hopefully the battleground doesn't move north with me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Always funny watching the S VA folks root for the NW trend that crushes the dreams of 97% of this board. Posts like "epic run of the GFS", just twist the knife. 10 minutes ago, griteater said: I mean, it basically always ends up this way right? Frosty, Jonathon, and Big Frosty sad and moping, saying they can't buy QPF, and they end up with the good stuff.....ha, all in fun Buddy - good luck your way! I’m sorry guys I don’t mean to be an a-hole. Just very passionate about winter time storms. Huge snow guy. I always root for you guys but if it happens for us I definitely take it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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