snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Jonathan said: Agreed, but question. Does the kuchera ratio not take those variables into its output? I believe the kuchera ratio factors several of those things in, but the output maps on the Euro are just the standard 10:1 so they are pretty misleading in events like this. For GFS/NAM the kuchera snow maps from pivotal are the way to go, they'll give a better indication of where those models see snow falling and sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Hard not to get a little excited for areas N and W of 85 with todays trends, the EURO was especially encouraging this close to start time of the event 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: I believe the kuchera ratio factors several of those things in, but the output maps on the Euro are just the standard 10:1 so they are pretty misleading in events like this. For GFS/NAM the kuchera snow maps from pivotal are the way to go, they'll give a better indication of where those models see snow falling and sticking. Wxbell has kuchera maps for the euro, are they not the real deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I'm all in on the Euro. Several hours of mood flakes with possible heavy bursts. Euro still has "accumulating " snow well to my south and east. I can still afford a small tick NW and get in on the wet flake action(per Euro). I'm hopeful rates will overcome to kick this winter off right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Wxbell has kuchera maps for the euro, are they not the real deal? I'm not sure, I don't have access to them as I use the free wx.graphics and weather.us ones, but if they're using the kuchera method then they should give a better idea of amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Hard not to get a little excited for areas N and W of 85 with todays trends, the EURO was especially encouraging this close to start time of the event Unless the GFS and NAM verify. I’m North and west of I-85 and those two models have me getting zero accumulation. The Euro has me getting four inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The euro now plays in the losers bracket. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I think quite a few would be happy if this verified... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: I think quite a few would be happy if this verified... I think quite a few will be happy wherever snow happens to fall, and quite a few will be disappointed wherever it doesn't. It's as simple as that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 My own analysis of where the Euro is supportive of snow (without regard for the snow map or precip type algorithm on the model): 1AM Fri: Snow in GA and NC Mtns, and northern NC foothills 7 AM Fri: Snow just N and NW of ATL into SE TN, GA and NC Mtns, northern NC foothills 1PM Fri: Snow NW side of ATL metro into NW and N Central GA into SE TN, GA and NC Mtns, northern NC foothills 7PM Fri: Snow NW side of ATL metro, GA and NC Mtns, northern foothills, NW Triad 1AM Sat: Snow NW side of ATL metro, GA and NC Mtns, northern foothills, Hickory to NW Triad 7AM Sat: Snow N side of CLT to Hickory to Triad Just S and E of these areas, there could be some snow where precip bursts and cools the column...or rain/snow mix Having said all of that, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro a little warmer than this on the 00z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: I think quite a few would be happy if this verified... That looks amazing. I just don't know where the cold air is coming from for those outside of the higher elevations east of the mountains. Hope I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: I think quite a few would be happy if this verified... What model is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: My own analysis of where the Euro is supportive of snow (without regard for the snow map or precip type algorithm on the model): 1AM Fri: Snow in GA and NC Mtns, and northern NC foothills 7 AM Fri: Snow just N and NW of ATL into SE TN, GA and NC Mtns, northern NC foothills 1PM Fri: Snow NW side of ATL metro into NW and N Central GA into SE TN, GA and NC Mtns, northern NC foothills 7PM Fri: Snow NW side of ATL metro, GA and NC Mtns, northern foothills, NW Triad 1AM Sat: Snow NW side of ATL metro, GA and NC Mtns, northern foothills, Hickory to NW Triad 7AM Sat: Snow N side of CLT to Hickory to Triad Just S and E of these areas, there could be some snow where precip bursts and cools the column...or rain/snow mix Having said all of that, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro a little warmer than this on the 00z run No Upstate SC? Bummer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The Euro just locks the 35-37 degree type temperatures and dewpoints for the entire storm east of Atlanta to upstate to southern foothills to southern piedmont.....doesn't budge a millimeter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, mrdaddyman said: What model is this? This is the RAP 17z run. It appears to be dynamically cooling a large area of the SE turning the rain into snow. It's one of the coldest models I've seen today so proceed with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The RAP always seems colder than actuality with these winter storms. Wouldn't put much hope into it. I'd go with the NAM 3km and the HRRR for my goto hi-res models when it comes to warm noses and thermal profiles. The RGEM also tends to do fairly well. The RGEM/NAM 3km combo nailed the big bust in January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Anyone heard anything about the CMC yet? Still not up on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said: The RAP always seems colder than actuality with these winter storms. Wouldn't put much hope into it. I'd go with the NAM 3k and the HRRR for my goto hi-res models when it comes to warm noses and thermal profiles. The RGEM also tends to do fairly well. The RGEM/NAM 3k combo nailed the big bust in January. When does ATL decide on WINTER STORM WATCH or WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY? Figured it would be out by now. I think criteria for ATL to be in a watch is the expectation for 2 inches of snow. Saving grace tomorrow for ATL roads will be 34-35 degree temps versus upper 20's we had during SNOWJAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 My own analysis of where the Euro is supportive of snow (without regard for the snow map or precip type algorithm on the model): 1AM Fri: Snow in GA and NC Mtns, and northern NC foothills 7 AM Fri: Snow just N and NW of ATL into SE TN, GA and NC Mtns, northern NC foothills 1PM Fri: Snow NW side of ATL metro into NW and N Central GA into SE TN, GA and NC Mtns, northern NC foothills 7PM Fri: Snow NW side of ATL metro, GA and NC Mtns, northern foothills, NW Triad 1AM Sat: Snow NW side of ATL metro, GA and NC Mtns, northern foothills, Hickory to NW Triad 7AM Sat: Snow N side of CLT to Hickory to Triad Just S and E of these areas, there could be some snow where precip bursts and cools the column...or rain/snow mix Having said all of that, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro a little warmer than this on the 00z run Jeez u mentioned SC 0 times in your forecast lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said: When does ATL decide on WINTER STORM WATCH or WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY? Figured it would be out by now. I think criteria for ATL to be in a watch is the expectation for 2 inches of snow. Saving grace tomorrow for ATL roads will be 34-35 degree temps versus upper 20's we had during SNOWJAM. They said to expect a thorough update between 3-4pm today. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 116 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 .UPDATE... Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion. In the near term, forecast is on track with the next wave of moisture moving into the region later this afternoon/evening. We are working now to fine-tune the wintry precipitation timing and location. Expect the next update to come out between 3pm-4pm. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FFC&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, odell.moton said: Jeez u mentioned SC 0 times in your forecast lol You can throw the SC mtns in there with NC and GA mtns, ha...Caesar's Head 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Anyone heard anything about the CMC yet? Still not up on TT. Rgem is still stuck on 12. No cmc yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, WarmNose said: That looks amazing. I just don't know where the cold air is coming from for those outside of the higher elevations east of the mountains. Hope I'm wrong Dynamic, it's making its own cold air! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Dynamic, it's making its own cold air! Seriously, the RAP did the same thing in January. Showed my area getting heavy snowfall through dynamic cooling; In the end, nothing but rain with some sleet mixed in all day and snow showers and flurries the last hour or two. It puts too much emphasis on cooling the colomn along with overestimating the rates of precipitation. There's not going to be a wide area where rates overcome 35-37 degree temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said: Seriously, the RAP did the same thing in January. Showed my area getting heavy snowfall through dynamic cooling; In the end, nothing but rain with some sleet mixed in all day and snow showers and flurries the last hour or two. It puts too much emphasis on cooling the colomn along with overestimating the rates of precipitation. There's not going to be a wide area where rates overcome 35-37 degree temperatures. That event had a lousier cold air supply and was more dynamic forcing mild air into the 750-900 layer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said: When does ATL decide on WINTER STORM WATCH or WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY? Figured it would be out by now. I think criteria for ATL to be in a watch is the expectation for 2 inches of snow. Saving grace tomorrow for ATL roads will be 34-35 degree temps versus upper 20's we had during SNOWJAM. I would be shocked if ATL got anything big from this. It’s possible but making a forecast here you really have to go just up to 2 inches on cold surfaces. This isn’t a closed low or dynamic system where intense rates are likely and it’s occurring at a bad time of day for accumulation. One factor I think that is killing this for ATL is what I call “early wet bulbing” where you get precip too early before dry air really works in and when you finally do start going to all snow you don’t have the potential you would have had if you stayed dry. If for whatever reason the precip from 23-07Z stays south of ATL and they can get to 23-24-25 on dewpointa this even becomes much more dangerous for them 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Hrrr is usually torching us 18h ours out, and it has the northen upstate flipping to snow by 7am Friday.. which is way ahead of schedule with most other modeling. Maybe the Hrrr and Rap are on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I didn't realize there was a second front that the low was going to ride from Texas, that front is currently stretched from San Antonio to Pittsburgh. Once that low passes to the south, the cold air will be brought in, to what extent is always a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 This is a big shift for the GEFS- previous runs had half of the members a trace or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Hrrr is usually torching us 18h ours out, and it has the northen upstate flipping to snow by 7am Friday.. which is way ahead of schedule with most other modeling. Maybe the Hrrr and Rap are on to something. You are probably fine. I could see you getting 1-3", easily! If I got car-topped overnight Friday, I would be ecstatic! I've watched simulated radar and even real radar, with deep blue 5-10 miles to my area, and still just rain! The fact that grit says the temps lock at 35-37 and don't flinch, is scary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now