snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 @Lookout Thanks for posting that, the RAP is interesting as it seems to be a good bit colder than most models across the SE. Either it's picking up something the other models are missing or just out to lunch. I remember in some recent storms that the RAP seemed to be on the warmer end of guidance, more like the NAM. Perhaps it's picking up on less of a warm nose and/or more dynamic cooling to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 16z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 What do you guys feel about ATL, GSP, and Charlotte in terms of snow totals as of now ? Seems to me like most of the models are in somewhat agreement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Is the CMC running late? I don't see any usual sites with it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, tramadoc said: Is the CMC running late? I don't see any usual sites with it up. I'm assuming some technical issues with it, none of the sites have it up... but haven't seen any official word on it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, tramadoc said: Is the CMC running late? I don't see any usual sites with it up. It stopped running around hour 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, shahroz98 said: What do you guys feel about ATL, GSP, and Charlotte in terms of snow totals as of now ? Seems to me like most of the models are in somewhat agreement.. There is no way to accurately forecast this, to many variables. Anywhere in Atlanta could see all mixing, or you could get lucky and get some heavy wet snow bursts that stick to elevated surfaces for a few hours. Folks on here could give you a much better analysis, but from what the models are telling us, expect nothing to a slushy inch that might hang around a few hours. Roads will be unaffected until after midnight Friday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Thank you snowlover91 and queencitywx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: We will be lucky to even get that. 35 degrees and rain is what I’m expecting. fortunately from the start i had really low goals and was going to be happy if i just saw any flakes at all. Which is a good thing because that seems to be close to the best case scenerio where i'm at. If i had to guess now, it will be rain or sleet to start (air is really dry so would think it starts as rain/sleet.) followed by maybe a few hours of wet ...non sticking snow...before going back to rain...maybe ending as a little more non sticking snow if i'm lucky. Unless that warm nose actually is not as strong as advertised (which we all know it's more likely i win the lottery), i'm not expecting any accumulations where i'm at. I think along and north of 85 in the upstate will eventually do ok...but only if the gfs is wrong with low level temps. The gfs is a lot warmer at 925mb to the surface over the upstate...but it seems to be alone in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Euro colder and much better totals than 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, J.C. said: 16z HRRR This image fits very well for what almost all guidance is showing (and with Climo) for the NEGA/Upstate/WNC crew. Warm buble over NEGA/Upstate with snow SW from there and snow over WNC mtns. Sort or an upside down banana of snow. This is climo and the look we see about 95% of the time. Always disappointing, but never surprising. Also for this area, we have timing going against us with the bulk coming in at the worst time of day. Needs to be 8 hours earlier or 8 hours later. With solar radiation it's very difficult to chip away at a warm BL or get much accum even if you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 EURO looks pretty good for Western areas.. colder and further West.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The Euro moved NW with precip...it now has 0.5-0.6 along the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Euro colder and much better totals than 0z Euro has 2 to 4 for Charlotte and Atlanta. Looks good and consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Verbatim... Euro is warning criteria snow for southern mtns, southern and central foothills out along i 40 corridor to GSO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: EURO looks pretty good for Western areas.. colder and further West.. I've seen this too often. Never bet against climo and the NW winter shift 36 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I've seen this too often. Never bet against climo and the NW winter shift 36 hours out. Gives you and me 3-5 inches at least lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: EURO looks pretty good for Western areas.. colder and further West.. NAM and GFS vs Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Id think this line will be about 50 miles NW of whats shown for accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Gives you and me 3-5 inches at least lol If we get that, we will be playing with house money the rest of winter. And it's not even winter yet lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 One thing that I have noticed is the EURO and UKMET especially have moved the SLP quite a bit closer to the coast and a little stronger too 1008 vs 1005... That helps with more precip near the Blue Ridge and cools the column with heavier precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Snovary said: Id think this line will be about 50 miles NW of whats shown for accumulating snow Not putting too much stock in precip maps after last year's debacle but nice to see the NW shift. Still think it will be mostly a car-topper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Euro looks good, but like others have said, it could shift slightly after one more run, but we are now inside of 24 hours. I would also take what you see here and divide by 3 outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I think this has already been a very enjoyable/fulfilling system to watch in forecasts, and hopefully, most likely, it will turn out to be intriguing as it happens and as the thread title mentions, good to remember into the future! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Remember when looking at the Euro output maps that is based off a standard 10:1 ratio. The ratios in this event will be more like 5:1 when you factor in the marginal temps aloft and warm ground. I'd recommend cutting those totals by 60% or so to get a much more realistic idea of what to expect on the ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Not putting too much stock in precip maps after last year's debacle but nice to see the NW shift. Still think it will be mostly a car-topper Agreed completely. One question about the EURO: Does it extend the precip into Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Poimen said: Agreed completely. One question about the EURO: Does it extend the precip into Saturday? For your area it has decent precip into Sat AM, winding down late morning / lunch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, griteater said: For your area it has decent precip into Sat AM, winding down late morning / lunch Thanks, Grit! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Remember when looking at the Euro output maps that is based off a standard 10:1 ratio. The ratios in this event will be more like 5:1 when you factor in the marginal temps aloft and warm ground. I'd recommend cutting those totals by 60% or so to get a much more realistic idea of what to expect on the ground. Agreed, but question. Does the kuchera ratio not take those variables into its output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Gives you and me 3-5 inches at least lol I'm actually shocked to see the euro pants this on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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