mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Looking at soundings, the warm layer that is on the NAM isnt on the GFS. We're fighting the surface on the GFS. NAM is great with soundings, nailed January event last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Disco-lemonade said: All I can say at this point is keep a close eye on that 0c line and your thermometers! Good post and map! I'm behind the 0 line now! Wish this would be tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Looking at soundings, the warm layer that is on the NAM isnt on the GFS. We're fighting the surface on the GFS. Go with the NAM, sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Good post and map! I'm behind the 0 line now! Wish this would be tomorrow Where’s your back yard Mack I know it’s upstate but where . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Good post and map! I'm behind the 0 line now! Wish this would be tomorrow Who knows I'd bet a good few of us will at least see some unexpected flakes, which is more than I got 2011-12 Heres the link http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=850mb&underlay=0&source=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Looking at soundings, the warm layer that is on the NAM isnt on the GFS. We're fighting the surface on the GFS. So we get screwed either way then. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Looking at soundings, the warm layer that is on the NAM isnt on the GFS. We're fighting the surface on the GFS. GFS does not do well with thermal profiles or warm noses especially. I would look at the NAM warm nose modeled and shift it about 30 miles north/west and you'll get a good idea of what will transpire.. I mentioned it yesterday, this warm nose is no joke and many are going to be disappointed when it comes roaring in and changes them to rain. Best chance of snow in NC will be mountains and immediate foothills, especially in NW NC. Anything CLT to GSO and east will be mixing a lot per NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Anyone on the foreign models for 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Anyone on the foreign models for 12z? RGEM and Canadian isnt updating on pivotalwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 WRCB Chattanooga’s VIPIR model predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: RGEM and Canadian isnt updating on pivotalwx Same on tropicaltidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Anyone on the foreign models for 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: Very nice Pack. Tucked right in off Hatteras. Mountains will do well just by looking at this 5h map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Same on tropicaltidbits I've got nothing on WeatherBell for the Canadian as well. probably showed a super mega bomb and they thought it best to just skip that run lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Blackbirds are going crazy here in the upstate today. I believe they also got NAM'd 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 For us RDU folks we need to hope that the 3Km NAM has the right idea about snow on the back end: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 6z NAVGEM Total Precip through hr 84. Looks to be all frozen in a least the mountains and foothills. One can wish right? NAVGEM hasn't let down though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Ukie not quite as good as 12z yesterday. But much better than 0z. Trending back towards a good storm for WNC possible up into VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Looks like all of the models are starting to narrow in on amounts between 2-3" here, which would be impressive if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Hvward said: 6z NAVGEM This model has been so consistent for at least 3 days now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 47 minutes ago, odell.moton said: Where’s your back yard Mack I know it’s upstate but where . S of 85 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Can anyone post RDU sounding for tomorrow afternoon from SREF? We should be in a reliable range right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Big increase in QPF from 12z ukie compared last nights 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Queencitywx said: Looking at soundings, the warm layer that is on the NAM isnt on the GFS. We're fighting the surface on the GFS. yep...This is a real tough one for areas south of 85 in ne ga and the upstate because of this. I was really becoming pessimistic about snow chances where i'm at because of the warming trend by both models....but the hrrr and rap are giving me some hope. Both models are showing a strong push of heavy precip in a banding type feature and the rap is showing some optimistic temp response. There is enough dry air aloft that there should be a pretty good temp response just off the surface...indeed the rap is showing rapid cooling of 925mb temps. If that low level warm layer can be overcome early here/upper savannah river valley/upstate it would at least remove one headache i think from the equation for the USRV...and maybe mean at least seeing some snow before changing to rain if that warm nose is as advertised. I still think 1 to 3 is the most likely accumulation outside the screwzone here but I feel like there is at least a moderate chance than more than just a couple of inches is at least possible for the atlanta metro, carrolton, lagrange, and up toward or just west of gainesville. Despite the warm crap here, it's looking cold enough at all levels...including actually getting to freezing..or even slightly below imo west and southwest of atlanta, that they cold end up doing quite well. Rap is suggesting a changeover to snow as early as 1 to 4am west and south of atlanta...and temps already at freezing. If it does....there is a lot of precip upstream to come. Rap even suggests a changeover is possible here as early as 12z. Rap is a good 5 or 6 degreescolder at the surface than the gfs here at 12z friday too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 btw..the early changeover around atlanta is supported by the hrrr too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The weather channel has 5-8 inches just west of Durham in a small sliver. I guess there's some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Chris has a dusting to a inch . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Some guy in twitter told me that the euro is 100% rain for Wake County. IDK, last euro I saw posted here early this morning was decent. TV Mets still saying dusting to inch+. They aren’t saying all rain yet anyway. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, odell.moton said: Chris has a dusting to a inch . We will be lucky to even get that. 35 degrees and rain is what I’m expecting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now