J.C. Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Rather big NW trend on the NAM, climo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Precip still struggling to make it into VA, better though for WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Only bad thing is the temps on the NAM are borderline even for foothill areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 SREF where can I find that at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Precip still struggling to make it into VA, better though for WNC Yea precip just dries completely up, even with the gulf connection. Edit: Tell you what though, this is a continuing trend here. We are still somewhere around 2 days away. Keeps trying to tilt the trough more and there may be a surprise in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 This run is a SWNC/ Franklin special 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Here is 5h at 42 at 12z and 48 at 6z. Noticeable difference with the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, CADEffect said: SREF where can I find that at? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ select total snow and use the map below to select a location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 27 minutes ago, griteater said: Here are the Charlotte surface observations from the Nov 2000 storm. It probably won't be this cold, but similar setup relying on precip to cool the lowest warm layer in the atmosphere http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2000/us1119.php That has been one of my favorite analogs this week. Hell, we even played the Vikings that weekend too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Only bad thing is the temps on the NAM are borderline even for foothill areas Cause this Nam Run basically keeps the surface front pinned up near and east of the mountains. In the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, FLweather said: Cause this Nam Run basically keeps the surface front pinned up near and east of the mountains. In the foothills. Like every time there's not a wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 So in the end, the Nam is literally about 6 hrs too late with making a big difference for the Foothills and up into S VA imo. There is definitely room for improvement here. Good run to start off the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This run is a SWNC/ Franklin special I’ll take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Rainforrest said: I’ll take it. Same here. It's more bullish than the sref which drops 2.5 here. The 6z rgem was a general 2-4. Hopefully that bumps up on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This run is a SWNC/ Franklin special You coming home to Marion for this one? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 brutal warm nose on the hi-res nam. upstate sc looks like snow initially with the heavier rates but quickly goes back to rain. clt east looks like all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 As usual, 5,433 things have to go right for it to snow and stick here. Warm nose, soil temps, qpf amount, etc. The NAM says you will get nothing but a cold rain unless you’re in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The german model, which did really well last year, has this event as mostly snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Really surprised how much the SREF is showing for RDU. I'm not buying it at all. I'd cut down those amounts by 75% or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The NAM is starting to a little too far NW for my liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: You coming home to Marion for this one? A setup like this will split Rutherford in half. Lower end more mix with the upper end more sn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, strongwxnc said: A setup like this will split Rutherford in half. Lower end more mix with the upper end more sn. True. Seems like RS Central high school is usually where the line is drawn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: True. Seems like RS Central high school is usually where the line is drawn. Such a tight line and always comes down to the 925 temp.. I live on the central to east side but work on the west-northern side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: brutal warm nose on the hi-res nam. upstate sc looks like snow initially with the heavier rates but quickly goes back to rain. clt east looks like all rain. It looks like, locally speaking, the rain/snow line runs roughly from Lincolnton to Mooresville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The german model, which did really well last year, has this event as mostly snow. What’s the Brazilian and Japanese models show? Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Same here. It's more bullish than the sref which drops 2.5 here. The 6z rgem was a general 2-4. Hopefully that bumps up on the 12z run. I agree. Southern Plateau is in a better spot for the Friday event than say Maggie Valley. Tables turn for the Saturday event. We're going with 2" for Highlands as a middle of the road forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Fool me once, shame on NAM; fool me twice, shame on me. NAM comes in juicier and warmer. We'll see will it fail or score a coup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It looks like, locally speaking, the rain/snow line runs roughly from Lincolnton to Mooresville. Seems like that is the norm. I remember very painfully on the last even seeing WOW talk about how much it was snowing in Mooresville while at my house right on 85 in Concord it was raining. painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Ive seen 4in of snow at the mcdowell/rutherfordton county line at the top of south mountain gap on hwy 226. And literally seen it pour ssnow on one side of the sighn and rain on the other with no snow on the ground within a matter of feet!!!! Craziest thing ive ever seen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drscottsmith Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I'm in the upstate of SC (Spartanburg County) - right along I-85...I hope this is an educated question... What should we be looking for in today's weather pattern to ensure a best-case scenario as the moisture and cool air move in tomorrow? In other words, do we want temps to maintain, rise or fall today? Is it better for dew point to stay low (dry) today so that moisture will cool the air column tomorrow as precipitation starts or would a slow rise in DP be better starting even today? So many variables have to be "just right" that I am curious what actual observations today yield best results for tomorrow. Thanks - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now