jpbart Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Flurries, down here by Columbia SC, flurries would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Yeah--let's remember that more often than not, even in January, those snowfall maps end up being reduced by at least half, if not more. As others have said, I'd be shocked if anyone receives more than a car topper this time around. But be of good cheer, winter seems to be setting in for the foreseeable future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Nam seems to be trying to slow down the rain a bit from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 41 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Keep in mind the snow map is based off 10:1 ratios and doesn’t factor much else in. The warm ground temps, the fact it’ll be a heavy wet snow with temps about 33-34 will really cut down on totals. Realistically I would say a slushy 1-2” max if you take the Euro verbatim. My mother-in-law is coming in from Dublin, Ireland. Any snow for her will be a treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 NAM = que the Fred Sanford holding the heart pic 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Nam is also ever so slight colder at the surface; especially on the onset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: NAM = que the Fred Sanford holding the heart pic I can't tell if that's good, bad, or funny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: I can't tell if that's good, bad, or funny! Me neither. Looks like we are progressively losing moisture here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Last frame on the 12Z NAM at H84. Slower than previous runs with more moisture inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I can't tell if that's good, bad, or funny! It's kind of how I've been envisioning this system, but we'll see what the other models say when they come in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Me neither. Looks like we are progressively losing moisture here Quite the opposite. This run of the NAM is amped up considerably and has tons of QPF but also a warm nose that sneaks in hours 78-84 all the way to RDU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, CaryWx said: Me neither. Looks like we are progressively losing moisture here No the NAM is looking juicy. Our region (as normal) is on the line. But the 84 hour NAM snow fall shows 2-4" across Wake (most for CR), with more to come. You would have to assume most of that would not stick; but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: It's kind of how I've been envisioning this system, but we'll see what the other models say when they come in It looks like it's ready to rock and roll at 84...although the precip looks like it changes to rain for the Triangle, even as the heavier precip rates engage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: It looks like it's ready to rock and roll at 84...although the precip looks like it changes to rain for the Triangle, even as the heavier precip rates engage. Well, well that was a step in the right direction. Next run should be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: It looks like it's ready to rock and roll at 84...although the precip looks like it changes to rain for the Triangle, even as the heavier precip rates engage. I think it would flip back to snow with the heaver rates. Dew points continue to show a colder look (...storm creating it's own cold): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: I think it would flip back to snow with the heaver rates. Dew points continue to show a colder look (...storm creating it's own cold): There's also some decent lift showing up over the Pee Dee of SC and Coastal Plain of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: I think it would flip back to snow with the heaver rates. Dew points continue to show a colder look (...storm creating it's own cold): Yeah, that looks good, assuming there's no warm nose aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersNotComing Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Is that NAM really reliable for a system like this? I’m just wondering because it seems to be spitting out a much better solution than the other models. I’ve seen people say the NAM isn’t a good model but I do remember back in January it was pretty spot on.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 The NAM looks too amped at the base of the trough, but I like a toned down version of this...but with precip getting back into E Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Yeah, that looks good, assuming there's no warm nose aloft. 925s look okay. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Queencitywx said: 925s look okay. Good deal. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 RDU does get to 0.7 at 850. 925's are below freezing though so I am not sure how deep that above freezing level would be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, WintersNotComing said: Is that NAM really reliable for a system like this? I’m just wondering because it seems to be spitting out a much better solution than the other models. I’ve seen people say the NAM isn’t a good model but I do remember back in January it was pretty spot on. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It tends to show overamped solutions quite frequently. Plus, it degrades substantially after 48hrs or so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Good deal. Thanks! There is definitely some sort of warm nose, I just dont know how thick it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Queencitywx said: RDU does get to 0.7 at 850. 925's are below freezing though so I am not sure how deep that above freezing level would be. With this kind of an extremely marginal setup, that would be solid rain for RDU. 0.7 is too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 How reliable is the NAM vs other models Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 As others have mentioned, the upper jet structure is good here (right entrance region of jet over the northeast)...that should allow for precip to expand back to the west. Models are notorious for being too skimpy on the NW side of Miller A's....should see the precip expand back to the NW with that kind of jet structure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I mean, it could be overcome with short bursts of heavy precip for a time, potentially, but the duration of any snowfall would be very, very limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: There is definitely some sort of warm nose, I just dont know how thick it is. Soundings are your best friend Nam is great for sniffing out warm noses but can be overamped at extended ranges of 60+ hours so I wouldn't put too much stock in this solution for now... but it is useful for seeing where a warm nose might set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: With this kind of an extremely marginal setup, that would be solid rain for RDU. 0.7 is too warm. It's really hard to beat climo but hopefully the NAM is overly amped up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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