snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It was much wetter overall than the NAM Yes but also drier than it’s previous run in N GA and Western NC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Gotta stay realistic on the totals. Never thought we’d see more than an inch in the Triangle. Knew .5 was more realistic. Knew that accumulation was tough. Just seeing the snow this time of year blows my mind. Getting upset because you won’t see 3-10 inches is... silly. It was never gonna happen in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Storm wise, the CMC was very much in the GFS/Euro camp this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 From JB. Looking at the depth of the trough, I expect precip shield to expand west in Mid Atl , but GFS as usual this far is flat. Where its wildest is implications for snow around New Orleans!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Storm wise, the CMC was very much in the GFS/Euro camp Yep, it appears the GFS/EURO have this one down. I thought the GFS was out to lunch but it certainly has held firm and seems like it may be closest to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, snowlover91 said: Yep, it appears the GFS/EURO have this one down. I thought the GFS was out to lunch but it certainly has held firm and seems like it may be closest to reality. The Euro wasn’t similar to the GFS in AL/GA/MS really. More for areas north. The Euro had 4-5 inches of snow in ATL while the GFS had none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro wasn’t similar to the GFS in AL/GA/MS really. More for areas north. The Euro had 4-5 inches of snow in ATL while the GFS had none I thought the Euro had kinda sat between the two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 New UKMet looks like GFS/CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I'll lean on ukie,rgem,euro , can. Expect 3 inches to fall vicinity of I 85 from the sky. Whether any or how much accumulates is the wildcard. Eitheir way it's a win this early, espeacilly with how the second half of next week is looking. That might turn out to be the biggest window of opportunity this young season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Well, this may put more folks east of the mtns in play for some flakes if temps cooperate (a big if)...regardless, there is usually a little NW nudge with these systems before go time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro wasn’t similar to the GFS in AL/GA/MS really. More for areas north. The Euro had 4-5 inches of snow in ATL while the GFS had none Other than the 12z run today, the Euro has focused the heaviest qpf in NC for Raleigh and east and that’s also what GFS shows. I don’t go by the snow maps because of all the variables that play into it and the biases each model has that affect the outcome. For me, qpf placement/amounts and 500mb vort maps are the two areas I compare. GFS and Euro have been pretty consistent in that for the most part, especially the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: New UKMet looks like GFS/CMC THANK YOU for all your awesome posts GRIT!! Hope all is well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Well, this may put more folks east of the mtns in play for some flakes if temps cooperate (a big if)...regardless, there is usually a little NW nudge with these systems before go time You know it's coming. That call map you made earlier is based off years seeing it happen time and time again. Only will be 40 to 50 miles. But it never fails to put an egg in the jackpot crowd face from 48 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Time to throw in the towel i guess. Good run guys. Hopefully we get another one soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: You know it's coming. That call map you made earlier is based off years seeing it happen time and time again. Only will be 40 to 50 miles. But it never fails to put an egg in the jackpot crowd face from 48 hrs out. As long as the system doesn't just collapse on the models, yeah, it usually nudges NW at the end. Had weaker model runs this aftn and evening, but we still have a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 How is the 0z UK looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: How is the 0z UK looking? It looks a whole lot like tonight's CMC and GFS based on the early maps...more detailed maps come out later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Euro, in case anyone cares to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Too bad the ratios won't be 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, JoshM said: Euro, in case anyone cares to look. We're screwed, but that was a fun week!..........not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 That run of the euro gets Wake Co. pretty good in NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 6z NAM not as robust as yesterday, but heck of a lot better than 0z! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Well the 6z GFS was one of the better runs we've had. Low closer to the coast, precip shield further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Well the 6z GFS was one of the better runs we've had. Low closer to the coast, precip shield further west. Agreed, slightly wetter and colder than 00z for central nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 My grid forecast. even with the better model runs this morning, I would take this and run: Friday Night Rain and snow likely before 1am, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday A chance of snow, mixing with rain after 10am, then gradually ending. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Light and variable wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 This is usually when the northwest trend commences so no surprise seeing it from the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I believe the 6z Nam and Gfs may have made me want to look at another run or two before I give in. That’s one hell of a qpf field to my east. Any more trends west and I could be looking at something a little more than I expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Lol at all the cliff diving over night. All the relative newbies on here need to remember a few things when it comes to snow in the south. #1. Never put your hopes in cold air making it over the mountains in time. Cold chasing moisture never pans out for us east of the mountains. #2. Never trust NAM snow output #3. Be thankful for any winter precipitation in December (it is rare) #4. Don't believe it until the snow actually starts to fall. #5. Don't get into a pissing match with the veteran posters, we have lost way too many really good members of the years. Their valuable posts are missed this time of year. Bonus for me with this storm, I've been able to ID several candidates for the mute button well ahead of real snow chasing season, lol. Enjoy what ever snow falls tomorrow. We are only in early December people. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Temps, temps, and temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 From NWSRal: This 4 AM EST surface analysis reveals one of the prohibitive factors for appreciable measurable snow in cntl NC. The weak ridge of high pressure from TX to NC is not sufficiently cold/dry to support much snow; and the upstream arctic front will be blocked by the Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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