Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: I expect the NAM to back off some from the weenie 12Z run, especially looking at the SREF (usually an indicator of the NAM) At 25 it is wanting to hold the s/w back over the southwest more. Not sure how that translates down the road here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Time to bring back the WPC probabilities page: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I just want to know what type of implication the base of the trough has, when comparing hour 33 to 39. How does that affect the tilt down the road in the upcoming frames? It looks even sharper than 12z and holding it back, but yet looks more positively tilted on the northern half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAM will likely be even more juiced looking at the early panels of the shortwave out west. I'm curious to see if that polar wave can phase in behind this to lengthen the backend/upper low snowfall on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Wonder why the SREF backed off a lot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Time to bring back the WPC probabilities page: At this point I think that's a pretty good graphic of how this storm unfolds. Mountains, Hickory up toward Winston and Greensboro do well (points north and west of CLT). Mood flakes for CLT south and east mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 HR 42 the trough is extremely sharpened once again, albeit it has a slightly positive tilt to it. I still think this ends up somewhat similar to the 12z. Could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I apologize for posting PBP on the old NAM run. Smh carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Here is the image I am looking at presently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 top is 12z NAM, bottom is 18z, same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Through 45 looks like less interaction between streams and a more positive tilt. I would think less amped and a bit further east with the heavier axis of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Not much change at all between 12z and 18z through hr45 qpf wise. Good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 18Z Nam is showing me what I thought it should have looked like at 12z. Pooling of moisture evident over LA,MS and AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Still think this is gonna be one heck of a qpf run for someone. The trough axis or the orientation of it is slightly more positively tilted, however it is not that much difference when comparing the 60hr image from the 12z. Much more qpf noted too in MS/AL/GA this run. Edit: Ahh I see now. The GL low has shifted significantly more southward, thus not allowing for the trough to tilt more neutral. There is a sizable difference noted in that aspect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Its showing heavier precip but going to be further East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Pay attention to that s/w coming due south into Minnesota. They trajectory on that is pretty intense N to S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAM looks to be ramping up a little sooner on this run. Looks juicy. Someone is about to get hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 It actually looks very similar to the Euro with regards to qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: Pay attention to that s/w coming due south into Minnesota. They trajectory on that is pretty intense N to S. My lord. Its like a darn bowling ball dropping down. Much more pronounced then the last view runs of the NAM. Definitely adversely affected precip being able to stream more northward and shunted everything off to the east. Need that pesky thing to get out the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The Weather Channel has 1-3 inches for Warm Springs, Ga. Thats pretty south of Atlanta. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 A warm nose is showing up this run. Verbatim would be pretty epic, but I don't like the look in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, olafminesaw said: A warm nose is showing up this run. Verbatim would be pretty epic, but I don't like the look in general. NAM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, shahroz98 said: NAM ? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Quite a bit further East as expected.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Snow map is quite a bit less for NC areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAM is definitely further east this time.... It just seems like the trends are to be further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, wncsnow said: Snow map is quite a bit less for NC areas I’ll still take 3.4 inches. Too bad none of it will stick due to soil temps. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Quite a bit further East as expected.. Yep about a 50 mile wobble east. Always going to see these small shifts back and forth up until about 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, BornAgain13 said: NAM is definitely further east this time.... It just seems like the trends are to be further east. Pretty much means a bust for Atlanta, GSP, and Charlotte if it jogs further east in the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 theres a good look at the power of the warm nose at 51hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now