WarmNose Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Final Call: Lmao Puerto Rico 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The euro is definitely keeping the ns low separate from the southern piece...hmmmm. Today's 12z Yesterday's 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, WarmNose said: Lmao Puerto Rico At the rate our winters are going, PR will see more snow this year than Pack or I. You have to move way south if you want snow these days. Even central Mexico is going to snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I consider you and I, along with the western folks to be in a good spot right now. Buddy, are you in Salem VA?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, isohume said: Uh, new fcst isn't out yet. I meant area GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: I meant area GSP Oh, that GSP. Sry, carry on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Buddy, are you in Salem VA?? Yes I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Allan first map is up. So far he thinks up to an inch in Wake. Said he will update later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Yes I am. The only reason I asked is because Salem and Apex are wicked far from each other in terms of winter climo When is not a good spot for Salem,Va in SE winter snow forecasting? July?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: The only reason I asked is because Salem and Apex are wicked far from each other in terms of winter climo When is not a good spot for Salem,Va in SE winter snow forecasting? July?? Lolllllllllllll... for some god unknown reason, I had high point in my head. That’s great. Sorry on the confusion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Seems like the Euro took the air out of here for now....If only the Euro were showing what the NAM and Canadian are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 ^ He'll have to correct that west a little when it's all said and done (especially the eastern edge), but not bad at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I was happy with the Euro run. It was a good average between all the 12z data. I personally believe the best case scenario is Allen's first guess map. 1-4" would be a big win anywhere in NC before the Winter Solstice. Perspective, it's not even Winter yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I dusted off the model performance thread to capture the difference here with GFS/Euro vs. CMC/UKMet https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49398-southeast-winter-storm-threats-model-performance/?do=findComment&comment=4682114 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Allan says take the EURO OP snow and shift it about 30-40 miles NW... that will show what the 12z EPS says 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 EPS: 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Is that the mean Cheez? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, CaryWx said: Is that the mean Cheez? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 RAH continues to mention rain in the forecast with a light dusting or a few flakes of snow. No mention of any accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Suncat said: RAH continues to mention rain in the forecast with a light dusting or a few flakes of snow. No mention of any accumulation. That's a very reasonable forecast too. A lot of people are going to end up surprised when the warm nose makes its way well inland past Raleigh and sits there. The amped solution is not good for most and favors the mountains into extreme western/nw NC. The 3km NAM shows the warm nose very well too. Models usually underestimate the warm nose too with the NAM closest to what occurs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Suncat said: RAH continues to mention rain in the forecast with a light dusting or a few flakes of snow. No mention of any accumulation. I'm nor sure they updated their long range (which includes Friday onwards). .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 110 PM Wednesday... Forecast remains nearly unchanged with a persistent southwesterlyflow aloft, deep moisture, and multiple disturbances riding northeast over a baroclinic zone off the southeast coast. Light rain is expected on Thursday and Thursday night across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills, mainly south and east of Raleigh. With colder air working into the region, there is a chance that some of the precipitation will mix with or change to snow. It`s important to note that the pattern suggests an active period with widespread precipitation across coastal NC and decreasing amounts and coverage to the north and west in the more climatologically colder region of the northwest Piedmont. In addition, there is no well defined surface high to support the delivery of cold and dry air into central NC to support more than a low end event. Still, partial thickness values and forecast BUFR soundings support some wet snow across the northwest and northern Piedmont including the Triad area Thursday night with surface temperatures dropping into the 32 to 36 range. But given these areas are on the northwest fringe of the precipitation shield and PoPs are in only the chance range, no snow accumulation is expected. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...As of 430 AM Wednesday... ...Potential continues for some wet snow Friday night and very early Saturday although the potential for accumulating snow is limited... As disturbances aloft move up the coast Friday, the precipitation shield will buckle northwest across most of the central NC including the Piedmont on Friday and Friday night with the most widespread precipitation and greatest precipitation amounts to the south and east of Raleigh. The precipitation will shift east late Friday night and Saturday morning with just some lingering, light spotty precipitation across the Coastal Plain expected early Saturday. A better chance for wet snow is expected Friday night and early Saturday morning across much of the Piedmont including the Triad and Triangle areas when the air mass will be a little colder. Air temperatures will fall into the lower 30s in these areas by Saturday morning which could support some light accumulations, on the order of a dusting, mainly across elevated and grassy locations in the general region of the I-85 corridor from Burlington northeast to the VA border. The warm boundary layer and ground temperatures combined with the limited precipitation amounts in the cold enough for snow areas should limit the amount, extent, and impact of snow accumulations. Highs on Thursday will range in the mid 40s with lows Thursday night in the 31 to 38 range. Highs on Friday will only in the lower 40s (may stay in the upper 30s in a few spots) with lows Friday night reaching 28 to 35 by Saturday morning. Cully on Saturday with highs in the lower to mid 40s. Another potent short wave trough and potent lobe of vorticity will swing through the mid-Atlantic late Saturday and early Sunday. This feature will bring some enhanced cloud cover although moisture appears limited enough to preclude any precipitation. A northwest flow develops behind the trough on Sunday and continues into late Monday with dry and below normal temperatures. Another impressive trough approaches on Tuesday with a southwesterly flow ahead of the system that should allow temperatures to moderate and could bring some spotty precipitation before temperatures crash behind the trough on Tuesday night into Wednesday. -Blaes && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: EPS: Oh, Great Dairy-Based, Vortex,(Cheez) Please lock this solution ! Incidentally, I bet Hartsfield will be a mess this weekend with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Is that the mean Cheez? Yep. 2-3" from Atlanta west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The new SREF definitely sort of hints what the Euro showed. Things looked better thru 54-57 then it wasn’t as good as the previous run after that especially more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The new SREF definitely sort of hints what the Euro showed. Things looked better thru 54-57 then it wasn’t as good as the previous run after that especially more north I am just slightly confused by this. So it is not as amped as last run? Or is the precip coverage better this go around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: I am just slightly confused by this. So it is not as amped as last run? Or is the precip coverage better this go around? Through late Friday afternoon it appeared like it was going to possibly came way west but then thereafter that it appeared to be flatter and more east. It was definitely more west for AL/GA on the precip but areas further up the MA region it was more east and drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Through late Friday afternoon it appeared like it was going to possibly came way west but then thereafter that it appeared to be flatter and more east. It was definitely more west for AL/GA on the precip but areas further up the MA region it was more east and drier Hmm thats interesting. Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I expect the NAM to back off some from the weenie 12Z run, especially looking at the SREF (usually an indicator of the NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Hoping this doesn't break any posting rules. Looks like Joe B is riding the NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now