FLweather Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: gfs once again weaker with the gl low Lee side trough showing up. Lee side snow shadow and enhancement in precip probably. From Charlotte to GSO/WS east with the enhancement of lift!? Not the first run of GFS being east and showing a Lee side trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 If we do get anything wouldn't think we get 10:1 ratios. Something lower 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What time frame? Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, CaryWx said: If we do get anything wouldn't think we get 10:1 ratios. Something lower Yep. 6 or 8:1, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: If we do get anything wouldn't think we get 10:1 ratios. Something lower For where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Bango said: For where? Central NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 UKMet looks a little faster and slightly less amped to me compared to last run...hard to tell on the precip...detailed maps come out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Confidence is building...... With the EPS ensembles included? Imo this showing a early season I85/I65 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 CMC starting to make a bit better sense as to where snow might fall. Still probably a bit too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Outside of the mountains, quicker is not the trend we want to see from a temperature standpoint 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yep. 6 or 8:1, probably. Is that cold rain equivalent!? Should be 1:1! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Temps won't be an issue. It will make its own cold air Someone mentioned a Lee side trough? I can remember 7'ish years ago a Lee trough set up here in the upstate and we must have raked in 4-5 inches with temps hovering around 40 degrees. It was ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, WarmNose said: Temps won't be an issue. It will make its own cold air Someone mentioned a Lee side trough? I can remember 7'ish years ago a Lee trough set up here in the upstate and we must have raked in 4-5 inches with temps hovering around 40 degrees. It was ridiculous I thought of that storm too. I think I know what you talking about. Charlotte area had thundersnow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 FWIW here’s the 00z Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 I guess the NAM and GFS sucked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 40 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: I guess the NAM and GFS sucked. Still cold rain but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 The way things are shaping up; if anybody sees snow flakes falling from the sky, consider that a win. RAH is talking a little bit more about snow (than yesterday): It will be unsettled with a threat of light precipitation persisting for Thursday and Friday as disturbances aloft in the fast southwesterly flow provide sufficient forcing for precipitation. The greatest threat and precipitation amounts are still expected to the south and east of Raleigh across the Coastal Plain and Coastal region. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in how far north and west the precipitation will extend and the overall amounts. NWP guidances has struggled with this for several days and this is a pattern which is often problematic. There is a reasonable chance that some of the precipitation Thursday morning and especially Thursday night and Friday morning could fall as some wet snow or a mix of rain and wet snow across the Piedmont. The amount of cold air will be the primary limiting factor which should keep things from getting out of hand. Warm boundary layer temperatures, relatively warm soil temperatures, light precipitation amounts, weak precipitation rates and questions regarding the ability of the moisture to extend into the ice nucleation region across the northwest flank of the precipitation axis where temperatures would be most favorable for wet snow suggest a marginal event with fairly high confidence that impacts will be limited. No accumulation is forecast at this point although a few GFS/EPSensemble members which include unsophisticated assumptions indicate some minor accumulation is possible. After morning lows in the mid to upper 30s, highs on Thursday will range in the mid to upper 40s. Lows Thursday night will fall into the lower to mid 30s with highs on Friday only in the lower to mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I think if trends for more snow today, stick a fork in this blue turd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Here's the 6z NAM at hour 81 (temps at RDU look like 33/32): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Confidence for me is increasing that we'll see some flakes and maybe a car topper. Confidence in anything more than that has decreased overnight, but there's still time for things to change drastically either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 17 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Confidence for me is increasing that we'll see some flakes and maybe a car topper. Confidence in anything more than that has decreased overnight, but there's still time for things to change drastically either way. A car tropper event would be money in my book right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Cha-ching. It's in the forecast...bank on it!!! Friday Night A chance of rain before 1am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 If I can get a couple splotches of blue on my local radar loop I'll call it a winter. Even if it's just virga 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Both the GFS and NAM bufkits are showing something frozen... though the NAM has more of a frozen mix. In addition, the SREF plumes show a little bit for RDU, but not much. For my area, southern wake, I've seen this type of scenario a million times. Cold rain while I strain my eyes to see some flakes mix in. If temperatures were colder it would be a different story. And today's 70 degrees and sunshine aren't doing any favors for soil temperatures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, WarmNose said: If I can get a couple splotches of blue on my local radar loop I'll call it a winter. Even if it's just virga Lol! I guess with early snows , come early grind temp discussions! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 At least the sun angle is favorable; We'll have a better shot at seeing rainbows! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 27 minutes ago, Solak said: Cha-ching. It's in the forecast...bank on it!!! Friday Night A chance of rain before 1am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Man your right; for me it's got a chance of rain or snow until 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 6 hours ago, snowlover91 said: FWIW here’s the 00z Euro. I'll take my 4" of Pasquotank County snow and call it a day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 25 minutes ago, tramadoc said: I'll take my 4" of Pasquotank County snow and call it a day. Keep in mind the snow map is based off 10:1 ratios and doesn’t factor much else in. The warm ground temps, the fact it’ll be a heavy wet snow with temps about 33-34 will really cut down on totals. Realistically I would say a slushy 1-2” max if you take the Euro verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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