BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Can anyone vouch for the accuracy of this tool on pivotal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: not surprising it would be warmer...looks like it's well north of every other model with the surface low. It’s hard to know without details but the UKMET I’m guessing wouldn’t even be snow in ATL. That’s probably the more classic BHM-RMG-CHA snow track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s hard to know without details but the UKMET I’m guessing wouldn’t even be snow in ATL. That’s probably the more classic BHM-RMG-CHA snow track Call me crazy but that low looks like its in a perfect location for a big Atl snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 For folks in VA Beach...time to hug IBM's model! Courtesy of Michael Ventrice's tweet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 One problem with that idea is there is no HP to the north. Much easier for WAA to invade without it IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Can anyone vouch for the accuracy of this tool on pivotal? I remember that tool (among others) being an epic bust last January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Chris Justus made a video and he is saying the NAM is reliable but does think it is over amped a little . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, Lookout said: not surprising it would be warmer...looks like it's well north of every other model with the surface low. First off, my mistake, the 850mb temp maps aren't even out yet for the 12z run, but yeah, sfc low ends up at the mouth of the Cape Fear River. 500mb at 72 hour looks remarkably close to the CMC, but thickness line is slightly warmer on UKMet. Sfc low is stronger and closer to the coast. Seeing the UKMet like this is a warning shot. I don't see us going back weaker/flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAM overstates QPF, especially towards the end of its run - but it did a great job with BL temps all last year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12z GEFS snow depth at hour 72: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 30 minutes ago, Lookout said: 12z icon says the 85 corridor is going to be white gfs sure seems out there by itself right now. I've been thinking this has the writing of a I65/I85 corridor special. What's up with the precip streak from central AL to SW NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I have seen the UK be amped too much at this range many times, as well as the CMC. Throwing the NAM in the trash for now, I'm not discounting an amped solution, but I think the UK today is about the apex of amplification. My gut feeling is that we see a less amped solution that gets plenty of moisture back west, but temps are so marginal, only western areas will have any shot at slushy accums. Even there, it should be a struggle. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 But, without a CAD the WAA is less noticeable in the soundings even though it is definitely there. This set up is definitely unique to our usual snow set ups. Interesting times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Ukie has a 1001 low right on Myrtle Beach at 72.Just from experience,that's a classic track for the I-85 corrider in western NC usually. We'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I have seen the UK be amped too much at this range many times, as well as the CMC. Throwing the NAM in the trash for now, I'm not discounting an amped solution, but I think the UK today is about the apex of amplification. My gut feeling is that we see a less amped solution that gets plenty of moisture back west, but temps are so marginal, only western areas will have any shot at slushy accums. Even there, it should be a struggle. The last few years when the NavGem has been this far north and west at this range it’s rarely not led to the flatter models coming further west 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Any veterans on here have examples of winter storms where cold air came from west of the Apps where a warm nose wasn't an issue? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, SteveVa said: For folks in VA Beach...time to hug IBM's model! Courtesy of Michael Ventrice's tweet. Since I'm in Elizabeth City, I'm hugging it like hot death. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Any veterans on here have examples of winter storms where cold air came from west of the Apps where a warm nose wasn't an issue? Thanks Many cases where the low is above 995-998mb it’s happened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 GEFS is actually a little less than 6Z runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie has a 1001 low right on Myrtle Beach at 72.Just from experience,that's a classic track for the I-85 corrider in western NC usually. We'll see. That is the wheelhouse for you, me, grit and wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Any veterans on here have examples of winter storms where cold air came from west of the Apps where a warm nose wasn't an issue? Thanks If you mean snow with a lakes low, no high to the north, and no cold air damming, Jan 1987 is one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: That is the wheelhouse for you, me, grit and wow. For Charlotte, I like it a little off the coast...great for mtns and foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: If you mean snow with a lakes low, no high to the north, and no cold air damming, Jan 1987 is one If I'm remembering correctly, that was forecasted as just a mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The last few years when the NavGem has been this far north and west at this range it’s rarely not led to the flatter models coming further west I hate the Navgem. But, I do agree with you. I think the flat solutions wake up, but I am also guessing that the UK & Co. are amped a little too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Queencitywx said: If I'm remembering correctly, that was forecasted as just a mix. rain with the possibility of sleet...best positive bust in my memory 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: If you mean snow with a lakes low, no high to the north, and no cold air damming, Jan 1987 is one That LP in 87' looks really close to the SC coast. Curious as to how that produced a snow event for areas south and east of I85? Stronger cold air source west of the Apps? Thanks Grit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, WarmNose said: That LP in 87' looks really close to the SC coast. Curious as to how that produced a snow event for areas south and east of I85? Stronger cold air source west of the Apps? Thanks Grit Super dynamic storm...strong, closed off 850mb low. A low that tugged to the coast is normally not good for GSP to CLT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 UKMet 850 and Sfc Temp panels are out. It runs the 850 low thru the heart of GA to NC. Looks really good for GA mtns to NC mtns...iffy just east of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Super dynamic storm...strong, closed off 850mb low. A low that tugged to the coast is normally not good for GSP to CLT Jan 22, 87 did have CAD the day before storm. it was upper 30's with NE wind all day. Not strong CAD but it was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet 850 and Sfc Temp panels are out. It runs the 850 low thru the heart of GA to NC. Looks really good for GA mtns to NC mtns...iffy just east of there The iffy line with be very tight where cites might be spilt where some are left out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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