avalanche Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: This is another reason I am moving to Hillsborough in a few years. Hillsboro/Roxboro/Summerfield/Oak Ridge etc most always seem to be unaffected by the "warm nose". Of course, last February's sleetfest was an exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: This is another reason I am moving to Hillsborough in a few years. Might I suggest Roxboro!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: This looks to be only rain vs snow! No ice right! there is no CAD; west of Apps cold air molasses; not sure what will happen as I am right on the line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 16 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: Literally every model shows the warmer air in Athens/East GA area....the cold air simply can't make it over the mountains fast enough during the heart of the storm. Most of the time I buy it but in this case i don't...for a couple of reasons. One the cold/dry air is actually already in place...where as normally in a setup like this... we are screwed when we are having to wait on caa/dry air advection as precip arrives. Fact is, The airmass here is not much different than everywhere else thursday night at the surface, near surface, or aloft but for whatever reason the canadian is not wanting to cool the surface temps just one or two more degrees. Based on full soundings/wetbulb zero heights.....i think this is in error. In most of the cases where that warm bubble really screws this area is when it extends up to 925mb....but nam and gfs, nor even the canadian shows that. Another problem would be if precip was lighter here for some reason or another but that doesn't seem to be a problem either. The biggest concern i have at the moment is two fold...one precip is actually light like the gfs...and 2nd is a warm nose aloft...from 700mb to 850mb..sneaking in during the day friday possibly resulting in sleet for a time. The nam is hinting at this. However, i don't think This will be a problem north and west of athens 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 hour ago, strongwxnc said: I would assume this setup (as it stands now) yields more snow in the WNC, upstate , and GA compare to Jan, 2000. Remember that storm very well. Forecast was for 2-4 in. We wound up with 8. Love it when a storm over produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I have my eyes on the December 12th storm... It might be a better overall snow event for most of NC if we can get it to amplify fast enough. It's pretty close right now on the GFS. This storm looks like a classic I-85 special. That warm nose is really starting to show up on the CMC and is making it well inland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I am curious, and some of you expert mets on here can shed light on it, having the gulf moisture find its way into this system, how does that play a part in surface temps (which were questionable already, as well as upper level thermals?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: This is another reason I am moving to Hillsborough in a few years. It really does matter where you live in the Triangle area. When I bought my house I actually drew a map and told the realtor where I would consider (basically Wake Forest SW to Apex - north/westard). I've been on the line many storms since I move to my location. The last one was the January storm and it looks like I could do it again with this one. Nerve racking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Might I suggest Roxboro!? Too far of a drive to work bro in Raleigh. Maybe a move about 10 miles north of Hillsborough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: It really does matter where you live in the Triangle area. When I bought my house I actually drew a map and told the realtor where I would consider (basically Wake Forest SW to Apex - north/westard). I've been on the line many storms since I move to my location. The last one was the January storm and it looks like I could do it again with this one. Nerve racking... Yea the northern portion of orange county never seems to have mixing issues in these types of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: Yea the northern portion of orange county never seems to have mixing issues in these types of storms. Yes, Hurdle Mills, Mebane, etc mostly get pure snow, at least in my 40 plus years here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Too far of a drive to work bro in Raleigh. Maybe a move about 10 miles north of Hillsborough. I have a sister that lives there, right near that palace point place!! I get tired of seeing snow/ice pics , while I'm in 50s, ! Lol ! This looks good for now, Lookouts post just calmed my nerves a bit, I guess we will see how it unfolds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, FallsLake said: It really does matter where you live in the Triangle area. When I bought my house I actually drew a map and told the realtor where I would consider (basically Wake Forest SW to Apex - north/westard). I've been on the line many storms since I move to my location. The last one was the January storm and it looks like I could do it again with this one. Nerve racking... If you draw a line through my place up to your yours and then review snowfall history you see a clear pattern. I did the same with my realtor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: I have a sister that lives there, right near that palace point place!! I get tired of seeing snow/ice pics , while I'm in 50s, ! Lol ! This looks good for now, Lookouts post just calmed my nerves a bit, I guess we will see how it unfolds Yea, that's the spot to be in the triangle area. 4 years of living in the Raleigh metro area and seeing these changeovers is enough for me. I am ready to move NW of town. I have zeroed in on that area and my fiancé loves that part of the area too. So we are thinking of a move there once we buy a house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, avalanche said: Hillsboro/Roxboro/Summerfield/Oak Ridge etc most always seem to be unaffected by the "warm nose". Of course, last February's sleetfest was an exception. That one big storm in Jan 2010. Got roughly 8-10" can't remember. But during the height of the storm that was mostly pingers. Trust me. If RDU has mix issues so does Roxboro. Just takes less time to recover from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 anyone hoping the warm nose isnt as strong as modeled on the hi-res nam is going to be very dissapointed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, frazdaddy said: If you draw a line through my place up to your yours and then review snowfall history you see a clear pattern. I did the same with my realtor. The same can be said for 85 in my county!! Literally, 3 miles from me can get 4-5", while I rain! Happened last January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I can loan you guys some of the cold air in exchange for some moisture. Hard watching moisture come up out of the gulf and be right on the edge here along the mountains in east TN lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, FLweather said: That one big storm in Jan 2010. Got roughly 8-10" can't remember. But during the height of the storm that was mostly pingers. Trust me. If RDU has mix issues so does Roxboro. That was my all time favorite winter storm. Several hours of 28 degree cotton balls followed by .25 inch of sleet and freezing rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, DopplerWx said: anyone hoping the warm nose isnt as strong as modeled on the hi-res nam is going to be very dissapointed. It will be stronger? It always is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, No snow for you said: It will be stronger? It always is. yep, we all tried to ignore it 36-48hrs out last jan and it ended up being even stronger than modeled. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: yep, we all tried to ignore it 36-48hrs out last jan and it ended up being even stronger than modeled. You nailed it, I mean NAM'ed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: I can loan you guys some of the cold air in exchange for some moisture. Hard watching moisture come up out of the gulf and be right on the edge here along the mountains in east TN lol. Imagine you live in Birmingham and you see Montgomery get the snow the models are showing while Birmingham gets nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12z icon says the 85 corridor is going to be white gfs sure seems out there by itself right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: anyone hoping the warm nose isnt as strong as modeled on the hi-res nam is going to be very dissapointed. Around 700 and 800mb? Nam was showing that yesterday on the soundings in Person County. Above and below cold enough. Other than warmish BL temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: 12z icon says the 85 corridor is going to be white gfs sure seems out there by itself right now. Wasn't it the same for the bust last year as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 UKMet maps coming in. It's moist, but warm....suggests snow in N GA, NC Mtns and foothills 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, griteater said: UKMet maps coming in. It's moist, but warm....suggests snow in N GA, NC Mtns and foothills When the New York forum says it's inside the benchmark, those of us outside the mountains and N. Foothills are out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: I can loan you guys some of the cold air in exchange for some moisture. Hard watching moisture come up out of the gulf and be right on the edge here along the mountains in east TN lol. You and I both Tellico! I have wanted to punt this system for the past 3 days but I'm always on the edge of being in this...Cmon, NW trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet maps coming in. It's moist, but warm....suggests snow in N GA, NC Mtns and foothills not surprising it would be warmer...looks like it's well north of every other model with the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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