packbacker Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 QPF output from the NAM is close to the Op Euro, just shifted NW 50 miles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 HI RES NAM shows the snow line further west it appears 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Pack, I feel like its not done yet either. I look for it to shift even more now as we draw closer to the event. GFS on its own island right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6z GFS ensembles could very well have been the warning shot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAM 3k sounding for RDU on 00z Sat... Close but no cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philconnors Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Would a trend to the NW appear to be in order as we get closer? We see that a lot. Climo is just so against this happening verbatim. Hard to buy in. But as some have said, absolute classic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The thing to pay attention to as others have mentioned is if the GLL interacts more on other models as opposed to the NAM, that's one of the biggest factors right now. Trend is our favor right now, but that can easily change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, philconnors said: Would a trend to the NW appear to be in order as we get closer? We see that a lot. Climo is just so against this happening verbatim. Hard to buy in. But as some have said, absolute classic setup. I would say yes imo. You see each model run a lot of key ingredients are coming together to indicate more of a shift to a westward component. Like I said earlier, GFS is on an island. Sometimes in these instances, the GFS has problems handling these types of storms and is always farther southeast than what ultimately comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 From Bob Chill in mid atlantic forum: Jan 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 FWIW, the NAM 3km. Hr 60 is dangerous, but Warmer profiles noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12z rgem is coming in wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: From Bob Chill in mid atlantic forum: Jan 2000? 1 I would assume this setup (as it stands now) yields more snow in the WNC, upstate , and GA compare to Jan, 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The RGEM is in though 42 and is insanely far NW at 42 compared to the 06Z run at 48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Why do the Pivotal maps look so different from TT maps? Precip is doubled on pivotal it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, jjwxman said: FWIW, the NAM 3km. Hr 60 is dangerous, but Warmer profiles noted. I love these maps! They show that pretty blue line about a whole county south of me, but at game time, it'll be in the top quarter of my county! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM is in though 42 and is insanely far NW at 42 compared to the 06Z run at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM is in though 42 and is insanely far NW at 42 compared to the 06Z run at 48 NAM, the trendsetter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: You think the upstate warm bubble will be in play with this one?? You could do ok, while I rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Thinking alot about the December 2009 storm that fell about a week before Christmas. Very similar setup. saw slop and no accum, drove 10 miles NW and 4 inches on ground . Thats not exageration eitheir. saw clear heavy slush and rain, occasionally white fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, NCSNOW said: Thinking alot about the December 2009 storm that fell about a week before Christmas. Very similar setup. saw slop and no accum, drove 10 miles NW and 4 inches on ground . Thats not exageration eitheir. saw clear heavy slush and rain, occasionally white fall. This event is very different than Dec 2009. It reminds me more of this January system to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The GFS/Euro/UKMet have a lot of work to do to get to this type of sharpening of the wave at the base of the trough. NAM/CMC/JMA are sharp at the base. I'd say meet the two ideas in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I'm driving from Lake Murray, SC to Bryson City, NC for my daughter's birthday (to ride the Polar Express) this weekend. Looking more and more like we may get an authentic experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 This is turning more into a miller a than a zipper low. Someone is gonna get their 6in or foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: The GFS/Euro/UKMet have a lot of work to do to get to this type of sharpening of the wave at the base of the trough. NAM/CMC/JMA are sharp at the base. I'd say meet the two ideas in the middle NAVGEM is in the sharp camp too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Is it a NW trend or is the precipitation field expanding NW? That is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 IF we do get some flakes , how much will actually show? Ground is awfully warm. I would rather see a good potential a week out after some cooler temps. That said I hope someone gets something out of this other than some much needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The 12z RGEM is a whopping seven degrees colder at the surface than the NAM at 48. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, tramadoc said: Is it a NW trend or is the precipitation field expanding NW? That is the question. Both. I think future frames will correlate and show with the Gulf wide open the way it is progged that in turn there will be more moisture influx. The tilt of the trough really helps and benefits the trend NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I feel like there's a warm nose east of Atlanta on the NAM...is it just me ? i feel like its going to bust again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The 12z RGEM is a whopping seven degrees colder at the surface than the NAM at 48. I wouldn't put too much stock in the RGEM surface temps. It has a known cold bias and in events like this the NAM usually does the best in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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