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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.


lilj4425
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49 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The majority of the models are more amped than the EURO, carving out the upper low more distinctly than the euro over the MISS Valley. If last year was any indicator towards this year, we'll probably see the euro cave at some point. Just taking a look purely at the 500mb chart, it's a pretty classic setup, the only issue is it's so early in the season for a snowstorm. My gut tells me most of the area see's snow falling, but boundary layer conditions limit the ratios to something like 6:1, which would lower totals to a general 1-3 across the area, except in areas who get lucky with dynamic cooling. EURO has been keying in on an area from SE Wake county NE towards the coastline for days. So it will be interesting to see how that pans out. The SLP track is pretty ideal being decently offshore, so I don't see a ton of mid or upper level mixing being an issue. This will likely be a rain or snow scenario.

Good post. Regardless of what happens, it being this early in the year means this is all just a bonus...regardless of outcome. I never expect to see any snow this early in the year so even if there is no accumulation, just seeing flakes will be a bonus. 

47 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

For those of us in Georgia the EURO, NAM, CMC and members of the GEFS have given us some eye poppers.  I for one am happy to see some areas of GA that don't normally get snow, being shown to cash in on many of these runs.  

Our media outlets down here are super conservative right now.  James Spann has sounded the lookout for the Atlanta area and the Atlanta Mets will not jump on that train.  I get being conservative but if models continue down the path they've been on, they will have no choice but to start to get serious about talking about it publicly.

Personally, I want it to come a little more North but I will be happy just to see flakes fly and folks that usually miss out get some snow.

I get not being bullish but last night was pretty embarrassing. David and glen mother f'n burns both didn't even mention a remote possibility of a flake when i tortured myself watching him at 6:30.  If they think the public can't handle them even saying there is a 20 or 30% chance of flurries or a mix a few days out....which at this stage is more than a reasonable forecast then that is an incredibly sad testament in a number of ways. 

At any rate, i think it should be pointed out that the nam right now is doing a really piss poor job of the current precip shield. Now mind you, the northern edge is likely not reaching the ground but comparing what's going on now with the  the 0z and 06z runs....man it's pretty bad. Indeed, many of the model look too dry. Of course It doesn't necessarily mean there will be a ton more precip friday/friday night but it's something to keep in mind and the models could have trouble right up until the "main event". 

On the flip side, RH profiles and Nam's composite imagery suggest there will be a lot of virga the next few days which might make things look a lot more impressive than they are. 

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

NAM is going to be a whopper boys and girls

With the tilt the way it is showing, I would look for future depiction and evolution of the qpf to look even better. The gulf is literally wide open this go around. Lets see if the 12z model suite continues. CMC/JMA/UKIE camp ftw? lolll

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