odell.moton Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Where are all you guys located therefore when you speak of your location I will know how it relates to me I’m in Greer BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 HUGE difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Looks absolutely classic to me. The nose of the moisture is pointing right in our direction and the orientation of everything would allow all of that to stream right toward us. Temps? 850s good? How's BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAM has moisture all the way back to western NC at 57. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Still pretty far East at 57, light precip only making it to I 77 It is further west than previous runs however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Temps? 850s good? How's BL Havent even looked yet. Just worried about getting the storm and the synoptics nailed down first here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: Looks like a juicy rainstorm! We need it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAM is going to be a whopper boys and girls 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Great run for us Georgia folks... I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Its looking better but keep in mind it is showing the SLP off of Tampa at hr 63.. pretty far south for WNC folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAM is going to be a whopper boys and girlsJust for NC or upstate Sc included . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, odell.moton said: Where are all you guys located therefore when you speak of your location I will know how it relates to me I’m in Greer BTW . Most of us have our location in our profile - under our avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 49 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The majority of the models are more amped than the EURO, carving out the upper low more distinctly than the euro over the MISS Valley. If last year was any indicator towards this year, we'll probably see the euro cave at some point. Just taking a look purely at the 500mb chart, it's a pretty classic setup, the only issue is it's so early in the season for a snowstorm. My gut tells me most of the area see's snow falling, but boundary layer conditions limit the ratios to something like 6:1, which would lower totals to a general 1-3 across the area, except in areas who get lucky with dynamic cooling. EURO has been keying in on an area from SE Wake county NE towards the coastline for days. So it will be interesting to see how that pans out. The SLP track is pretty ideal being decently offshore, so I don't see a ton of mid or upper level mixing being an issue. This will likely be a rain or snow scenario. Good post. Regardless of what happens, it being this early in the year means this is all just a bonus...regardless of outcome. I never expect to see any snow this early in the year so even if there is no accumulation, just seeing flakes will be a bonus. 47 minutes ago, HWY316wx said: For those of us in Georgia the EURO, NAM, CMC and members of the GEFS have given us some eye poppers. I for one am happy to see some areas of GA that don't normally get snow, being shown to cash in on many of these runs. Our media outlets down here are super conservative right now. James Spann has sounded the lookout for the Atlanta area and the Atlanta Mets will not jump on that train. I get being conservative but if models continue down the path they've been on, they will have no choice but to start to get serious about talking about it publicly. Personally, I want it to come a little more North but I will be happy just to see flakes fly and folks that usually miss out get some snow. I get not being bullish but last night was pretty embarrassing. David and glen mother f'n burns both didn't even mention a remote possibility of a flake when i tortured myself watching him at 6:30. If they think the public can't handle them even saying there is a 20 or 30% chance of flurries or a mix a few days out....which at this stage is more than a reasonable forecast then that is an incredibly sad testament in a number of ways. At any rate, i think it should be pointed out that the nam right now is doing a really piss poor job of the current precip shield. Now mind you, the northern edge is likely not reaching the ground but comparing what's going on now with the the 0z and 06z runs....man it's pretty bad. Indeed, many of the model look too dry. Of course It doesn't necessarily mean there will be a ton more precip friday/friday night but it's something to keep in mind and the models could have trouble right up until the "main event". On the flip side, RH profiles and Nam's composite imagery suggest there will be a lot of virga the next few days which might make things look a lot more impressive than they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: NAM is going to be a whopper boys and girls With the tilt the way it is showing, I would look for future depiction and evolution of the qpf to look even better. The gulf is literally wide open this go around. Lets see if the 12z model suite continues. CMC/JMA/UKIE camp ftw? lolll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 At 54 dewpoints are in the upper 20's in the Triad. Upper 30's surface. Any moderate precip would be snow, per sounding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: NAM is going to be a whopper boys and girls LOL..holy crap. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: NAM is going to be a whopper boys and girls Tell me the temps are good! Please Bring it home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: LOL..holy crap. Rates=Triad DESTROYED! that is classic man. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Good thing I am going to be mobile for this storm. Will be heading to HKY if it's chaseable worthy. I was supposed to head home this weekend anyway for a golf tournament lol. Still up in the air on RDU vs HKY on this one, unless the euro caves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Through hr 66... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 With each run we say bye to the GL low more and more, which allows the trough axis to go negative and allow all the gulf moisture to be advected up our way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 words: it's the NAM wish the GFS looked like this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: With each run we say bye to the GL low more and more, which allows the trough axis to go negative and allow all the gulf moisture to be advected up our way. Good catch. This has and continues to trend that way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Hour 72.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, wncsnow said: Hour 72.. The trend continues for our backyards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Storm Total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 lol...what a nam job. Some areas with more than 24 hours of snow fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Spot checking soundings, it looks legit with the precip type....are the model temps correct though? We'll see 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Run total... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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