JoshM Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Brad P giving a whopping 10% chance of wintry weather, basically the whole western Piedmont of NC and upstate SC! Says a few flakes may mix in with the rain! He's been burned a few times in the past couple years. I would be ultra cautious until Thursday. Most Charlotte mets are doing the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Wonder what he is seeing that would go against the NWS? He must be hugging the GFS's warm surface temps. Not sure, but he posted it on FB about 30 minutes ago. Meanwhile, the frontal band is finally here that will kick off our pattern change!! I'm looking forward to my flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Robert throwing out his first guess map too for his members. Interesting though he mentioned maybe time to throw out global models for such small scale system. Guess he talking about short range/medium range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Ryan added vort maps for the Euro...will be helpful tracking our rain events this winter. You can definitely see how this can get more amped the next couple of days....and you can see how this could be a weak miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Ryan added vort maps for the Euro...will be helpful tracking our rain events this winter. You can definitely see how this can get more amped the next couple of days....and you can see how this could be a weak miss. It's a very small window for the southern energy lagging back over Texas to hold its own to later enhance precip over our area on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Nam is slower and stronger with both pieces of energy....could this be a Mack special coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAM has it snowing in Atlanta late tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: NAM has it snowing in Atlanta late tomorrow night into Thursday morning. That's an odd looking map, but juiced! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 At 42, NAM is hanging the southern shortwave back over New Mexico a bit, more like the globals...think that will limit this from being super amped up and well west....we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: At 42, NAM is hanging the southern shortwave back over New Mexico a bit, more like the globals...think that will limit this from being super amped up and well west....we'll see I noticed that as well. I wonder if the models are going to do there typical hold the s/w back too long in the Southwest and the end result may end up being more west. Guess we will see. I know the Euro is terrible with this, however idk how the nam does we these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: At 42, NAM is hanging the southern shortwave back over New Mexico a bit, more like the globals...think that will limit this from being super amped up and well west....we'll see Still a 1,2 punch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Grit, looks like you’re right man. At 54 much flatter and the qpf is cut in half for the southeast. Did not expect this honestly from the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 There's more separation with the southern wave.. could be interesting.. Still too early to figure this one out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Grit, looks like you’re right man. At 54 much flatter and the qpf is cut in half for the southeast. Did not expect this honestly from the nam. No it's just delayed.. it's putting more stock in the s/w back in TX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Grit, looks like you’re right man. At 54 much flatter and the qpf is cut in half for the southeast. Did not expect this honestly from the nam. It looks more positive tilt at the base of the trough. The 12z UKMet was like this, so that was a red flag, but these are wobbles, so it's hard to say...but the DWD Icon and UKMet didn't have as much push inland with the precip. I wouldn't sweat it too much really. Some of the other globals are diving more northern stream energy into the trough to sharpen it more...need to see the other 00z's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Congrats gulf coast on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Nam looks super juiced at 75 along the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Nam looks super juiced at 75 along the gulf. Need that to head NE and more cold coming SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAM is going to run a southern s/w low from the GOM. It's seperated and pulling in the precip shield. IF this is true, it would be more of a Saturday event with a singular low travelling up the coast than a zipper low on Friday. This is better for more W areas given the lack of HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Congrats gulf coast on this run. Man, imagine you live somewhere like Rockport, TX. It got wiped off the map, practically, and this run almost brings snow to the Texas shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Winter is back, feels good. Been a long since we dissected 84hr NAM and threw around Icons, brazillian and australian models 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Even though Piedmont might see some snow, the mountains are going to cash in this weekend. debating on a trip this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Goodness. A lot of what if’s on that run with the s/w Wow explained and how the nam is keying on the second wave. The gulf is wide open. It is the nam in fantasy range though, so will be reserved in my excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Man, imagine you live somewhere like Rockport, TX. It got wiped off the map, practically, and this run almost brings snow to the Texas shore. No kidding! I was looking at the snow all the way into Mexico and along the Gulf coast in Louisiana, Alabama, and parts of the Panhandle. Shoot even New Orleans kind of got in on that run. Pretty crazy how the trough is oriented then the moisture comes in deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 You've been NAM'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Even though Piedmont might see some snow, the mountains are going to cash in this weekend. debating on a trip this weekend! Actually with the way things have trended we are left high and dry. No moisture around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Still a big question with the progression of the s/w in the southern jet and it's interaction with the polar jet as to how it plays out with the LP and precip. Need a few more runs. It's tricky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Actually with the way things have trended we are left high and dry. No moisture around. buddy, the fun begins after this system. Lake effect like crazy and a bonus clipper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wow said: Still a big question with the progression of the s/w in the southern jet and it's interaction with the polar jet as to how it plays out with the LP and precip. Need a few more runs. It's tricky. Shouldn't they be on land by tonight or tomorrow, for sampling!? More accurate runs then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAM is in the JMA camp with the southern wave separation and sharpening at the end there...it didn't look warmer that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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