BornAgain13 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: i understand being wary of the hrrr but to think it is going to be THIS off? not likely. this is one of those warning shots the day before a storm that you ignore at your own peril. But its by itself, no support.... I understand your optimism, but enjoy this... Early December Snows just dont happen here often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Sweet mary mother of god Boom goes the dynamite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 hmm id be willing to bet that band headed towards atlanta is going to change to snow soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I'm all for these "trends," let's hope! Words from Fishel: "Window of opportunity between 7am and 5pm tomorrow in Triangle area where intensity driven changeover to snow is possible. All rain tomorrow night as temps are above freezing and almost isothermal from the ground to 10,000 ft! Precip may end as light snow Saturday." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I haven't had a chance to look at the HRRR in depth but one thing I noticed briefly flipping through the mesoscale models is that through 21z Friday it's fairly substantially drier than all of the other models. This is true pretty much everywhere but especially as you go N and W from the heaviest totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 55 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS has a really dynamic look to it for western NC (that's where I was focused - could be in other areas too). From a thermal standpoint, you can see a squeeze play going on as this system develops - the 850 zero degree line is working its way NW and backing right into the cold air in W NC....long duration event on the GFS...ya'll have winter storm warnings in the NC mtns yet? You need them Grit, Do you think the CLT/Gaston County areas will reach warning criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Chris Justus just said the latest models are colder and feature more snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Chris Justus just said the latest models are colder and feature more snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 19 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: Grit, Do you think the CLT/Gaston County areas will reach warning criteria? I do not. Rain with snow possibly mixing in at times is how I see it. Tough forecast, maybe the stars align one time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: I do not. Rain with snow possibly mixing in at times is how I see it. Tough forecast, maybe the stars align one time Roger that! Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 How many are staying up to see if the Euro Holds? UK , I believe held its ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Thats what you call a GEFS Mean... wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Meanwhile the HRRR looks like a other 4 letter word still which does cause some pause.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 There is a little meso low in ne GA tommorow a.m. and that may be what Hrrr is latching onto. It probably is what will push the changeover line back up against escarpment area. Until it gets by and your back yard gets on backside , the temp profile will be screwed in NC. Something to keep an eye on and that has to be what the HRRR is sniffing out and explains all of nc and sc outside of the mtns staying rain. Hopefully it's wrong. I'll be holding my breathe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The HRRR is SUPER warm at the surface.. 37 in AVL during precip tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 At hour 10 on the HRRR, it's 34 degrees around Danville, Hour 11 it's 38... not sure how that can happen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The HRRR is SUPER warm at the surface.. 37 in AVL during precip tomorrow... It has the temps steadily climbing region wide throughout the day, even under the heaviest precip. Makes no sense without any large scale warm air advection. I would understand if it was saying some places wouldn’t wetbulb low enough, but for temps to sky rocket under the precip shield seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The meso low is present on the surface maps right now. You can see a warm front pushing against the arctic front in SC and parts of NC. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc-zoom.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 EURO is more amped/closer to the coast with precip further west and some double digit totals along the central VA/NC line. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Wow...Boom run for my area back to WNC some impressive totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Talked to my aunt a couple hours ago, she lives just west of Houston. Had heavy snow and lost power there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Euro is another big hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 With that snowfall minimum towards the foothills and the increase into the Piedmont of NC, is there some kind of lee trough or enhancement going on there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 With that snowfall minimum towards the foothills and the increase into the Piedmont of NC, is there some kind of lee trough or enhancement going on there?I was wondering why there’s a minimum in the foothills with a closer to the coast low pressure?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The HRRR is still a blow torch for everyone, but past a few hours it looks nothing like any other model. Buyer beware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I don't know guys, I see temperature issues in upstate and central NC as the bulk of the precip moves through on the Euro. Just as the lowest levels get cool enough in the Triad, the 850 0 deg moves NW right into the Triad (and it is probably warmer above 850). I think the snow maps are interpreting transition areas as all snow. There is a changeover to some light snow in GSP to CLT Fri night and into Sat morning...same for Triad but more of it there. I would want to be in the mtns and northern foothills...we shall see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Hly Pajamas. Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Euro is another big hit! Wow, this escalated pretty quickly for my area. I was only expecting an inch but it seems I could get 3+ inches now. Although it could go the other way around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, griteater said: I don't know guys, I see temperature issues in upstate and central NC as the bulk of the precip moves through on the Euro. Just as the lowest levels get cool enough in the Triad, the 850 0 deg moves NW right into the Triad (and it is probably warmer above 850). I think the snow maps are interpreting transition areas as all snow. There is a changeover to some light snow in GSP to CLT Fri night and into Sat morning...same for Triad but more of it there. I would want to be in the mtns and northern foothills...we shall see Yeah, ground truth at GSP 44/43 !! Gonna be 98% rain for me, despite a few awesome me so model runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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