SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: These dang models won’t stop flip flopping. HRRR came in worse but NAM and SREF came in colder. Do something isohume. Don't use the HRRR that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Think the HiRes Nam has right idea. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 NAM is really cranking out the precip in the central/eastern Carolina's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, wncsnow said: Think the HiRes Nam has right idea. I think you have the right idea my man. You have to think we are in the right rear quadrant in this instance, which is going to lead to some pretty decent ascent and lift for moisture to get rung out. Nam is too dry imo at 0z. Not wishcasting but from a physics standpoint the hires Nam is much more “real” looking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Doesn't the NAM have a tendency to overdue precip.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Follow the RGEM in the 12 to 36hr range... it's usually right. IMO Normally that's bad news for us, but in this case it looks slightly better for SC/piedmont NC. We'll see if it nails it this time... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Doesn't the NAM have a tendency to overdue precip.? Yes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, CaryWx said: Doesn't the NAM have a tendency to overdue precip.? Yes. That’s why it is somewhat confusing when you have the physics I mentioned above that it wouldn’t paint a better picture than what it is portraying precip wise. A lot of things are coming together and then to throw gulf moisture in there.. I think the 18z gfs did a great job portraying what reality might look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I think you have the right idea my man. You have to think we are in the right rear quadrant in this instance, which is going to lead to some pretty decent ascent and lift for moisture to get rung out. Nam is too dry imo at 0z. Not wishcasting but from a physics standpoint the hires Nam is much more “real” looking. Yeah, the hi-res nam is pretty great for picking up on dry slots and overall precipitation right before a storm in my experience. The past few winters I think it has done a pretty good job of picking up on the effects of terrain and temps as well. Probably my favorite short range model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just be surprised if that NAM 36hr look (2.2"s of water in my location) verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 For the weenie in all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: For the weenie in all of us I've seen this somewhere before. That's a 'Brick' wall-hanging isn't it? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I got to say, regardless of what I get, I am pretty excited for the people in the deep south to see this much snow. Would love it if some of Alabama of Mississippi got buried. I am sure snow weenies there have been waiting years for such an event. I can't imagine waiting years between significant snows. Hopefully schools are prepared and closing down in those area. would hate to see another ATL situation. Are there any warnings there yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I've seen this somewhere before. That's a 'Brick' wall-hanging isn't it? Aren't we at best looking at 6:1 versus 10:1 on the map? Or maybe even 4:1 aka White Rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, CARDC79 said: Aren't we at best looking at 6:1 versus 10:1 on the map? Or maybe even 4:1 aka White Rain... White rain is 0:1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, CARDC79 said: Aren't we at best looking at 6:1 versus 10:1 on the map? Or maybe even 4:1 aka White Rain... I would suspect so but will let the experts comment. Regardless you are in a decent if not solid location for the best this storm can deliver outside of the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: White rain is 0:1 I know. Was trying to make a joke, not meant to be scientifically correct :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 remember when the hrrr was showing it ripping fatties tomorrow morning in nc? here's the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 29 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL...0z NAM. Raleigh getting NAM'd...like salt in the wounds. I'm almost too far N on that run! Happy! Happy!Happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Warm nose will ruin all the fun for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 FWIW, the NAM initialized with a DP that was two degrees too high. Every degree matters tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Warm nose will ruin all the fun for RDU.According to NWS, the surface temps are going to drastically rain on all of central NC's parade (no pun intended)Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Not sure what this Ferrier correction is, but this seems about right for the final call from the 00Z 12K NAM: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bert1 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I have not seen this posted. GA NWS video... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Well if this ain't a kick in the Carolinas stones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 NE GA upgraded to warning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 0z RGEM looking good again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Some of you are going to like the 0Z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Check out the wrf. Plasters RDU 6 plus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: Some of you are going to like the 0Z RGEM. Sign me up for one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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