FallsLake Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Dealing with the last couple of runs of the HRRR, it backed off on the intensity of precip which then backed off on the cooling. The latest 0z increase precip rates some which then also increases mixing; particularly around RDU. So basically if you want snow, you need heavy precip to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Sref is more amped than the 15z run. Nam looking to follow already just looking at the layout on 5h at hr 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 SREF mean for ATL is 1.88" GVL 2.75" GSP 3.72" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, WarmNose said: It will make its own cold air. Rates will overcome Need a high pressure in the northeast. Would make me feel better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 With the developments you are seeing take place, what Analog do you see shaping up so far? I am thinking November 18, 2000. Hope all is well my friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Sref is more amped than the 15z run. Is that even possible!?!? Went shopping in Asheville tonight. Absolutely nobody knew it was gonna snow. One gal said if it did we would get a dusting. Oh my oh my. NWS has some explaining to do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, J.C. said: SREF mean for ATL is 1.88" GVL 2.75" GSP 3.72" Could the map be posted? I'm very anxious to see what it looks like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, CummingGaSnow said: Could the map be posted? I'm very anxious to see what it looks like! There isn't a map, just points on the map of major airports. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, CummingGaSnow said: Could the map be posted? I'm very anxious to see what it looks like! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ One member has me getting 15 inches. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: If the globals were showing it like the HRRR, I would be more inclined to believe it. I hear ya. Hopefully, the globals are right. My suspicion is, though, is that the warmer solutions may be more likely to turn out to be the correct ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ One member has me getting 15 inches. LOL. That is my new favorite model. I will call it a winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Sref plumes are out. Triad locations took a big jump and almost doubled from the two inch range previously to the four inch range now. Same for Hickory: 1 minute ago, CummingGaSnow said: Could the map be posted? I'm very anxious to see what it looks like! Look for yourself right here: Just zoom in to your location on the map below: (I feel like I've already said this once today...) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, calculus1 said: Same for Hickory: Look for yourself right here: Just zoom in to your location on the map below: (I feel like I've already said this once today...) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ 1 My closest point is about 26 miles to my east and it is at 3.56 which is up from around 2".. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 21z SREF just got more serious 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: 21z SREF just got more serious Talk about an increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Nam absolutely refuses to build the northwestern edge of precip like some of the other models. It is drier this go around for the mountains and foothills. Doesn’t even have anything measurable for sw va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: 21z SREF just got more serious I'd call that map a winter and be happy till Spring! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The 00Z NAM to me looks like it slide south across GA/AL. Thats purely looking at precip field...not thermals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 SREF mean for ATL is 1.88" GVL 2.75" GSP 3.72"Silly question but does sref mean means liquid or snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Silly question but does sref mean means liquid or snow .SnowSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Is that even possible!?!? Went shopping in Asheville tonight. Absolutely nobody knew it was gonna snow. One gal said if it did we would get a dusting. Oh my oh my. NWS has some explaining to do... Yeah if we get what looks to be coming then a lot of people will be caught off guard. The roads could be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Oz NAM better for RDU. Looks like it will flip between snow and rain with heaver rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 LOL...0z NAM. Raleigh getting NAM'd...like salt in the wounds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 0z NAM hour 21: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I like that the NAM didnt come in super warm and amped.. I think its a good sign for my area and WNC even though it shows less moisture 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL...0z NAM. Raleigh getting NAM'd...like salt in the wounds. 9" over my house. Lol 0% chance of an inch here. Mark it down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: 9" over my house. Lol Where have I seen this before? lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL...0z NAM. Raleigh getting NAM'd...like salt in the wounds. These dang models won’t stop flip flopping. HRRR came in warmer but NAM and SREF came in colder. Do something isohume. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL...0z NAM. Raleigh getting NAM'd...like salt in the wounds. I know I banked my 7 inches of fantasy snow but I will take the real life 6.6 inches of snow and call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 hires nam showing the snow line not as far south and east as the 12km nam, FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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