mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 11:46 PM, burrel2 said: FYI, I've found this RGEM product's rain/snow/mix line to be deadly accurate in past events... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Expand There's some dip right over me that seems to want to make it snow on me!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 11:46 PM, burrel2 said: FYI, I've found this RGEM product's rain/snow/mix line to be deadly accurate in past events... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Expand Talk about you and me being right on the line. Lol. I-85 is the split for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 11:47 PM, LithiaWx said: Very little IP or ZR all hi Rez modles really are suggesting snow or rain and that’s it. Expand And that's true. The only trouble area with temps will be at the surface mainly. The LP is weak and little WAA to worry about. It's either rain or a heavy, wet snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I know it’s probaly gonna be a 85 and west sweet spot, but I’m going to laugh if it comes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 11:42 PM, burrel2 said: 18z RGEM just showed up... Expand Almost has ATL in rain now. Its definitely been coming north with time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 11:46 PM, burrel2 said: FYI, I've found this RGEM product's rain/snow/mix line to be deadly accurate in past events... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Expand Hope so. This puts me in the game. Need this storm to outperform climo by 15 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 That map looks completely accurate. I'm about 5 miles south of snow line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 RGEM has a 6” stripe from basically lake norman through the triad and up into lower VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 11:54 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Almost has ATL in rain now. Its definitely been coming north with time Expand The 540 line being in TN, is not a concern!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Gulf sea surface temperatures are above normal. It's going to be a good ol fashioned, slow moving, gulf low with long SW flow moisture fetch. Not a wound up system with convection robbing and splotchy radar coverage...my thoughts anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Dang, check out the back side precip shield Saturday morning on the RGEM... similar to what the GFS is hinting at I suppose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 11:56 PM, mackerel_sky said: The 540 line being in TN, is not a concern!?? Expand I'm sure people here know better than me but I want to say GA commonly snows with thicknesses over 540 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 RGEM 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Weenish! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Rgem is adding on an inch or two of accumulations Saturday morning from the back side.... Hope that pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 12:02 AM, J.C. said: RGEM 18z Expand My new favorite model! 6", yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 11:27 PM, Queencitywx said: I’ve been busy this afternoon so I’m catching up on some 12z and later runs. EPS jumped me up to a 4” mean in Davidson. Huh. Expand Hey, post your EPS link. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 12:04 AM, mackerel_sky said: My new favorite model! 6", yes please! Expand Mine too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 12:00 AM, burrel2 said: Dang, check out the back side precip shield Saturday morning on the RGEM... similar to what the GFS is hinting at I suppose. Expand I'll enjoy my flurries, with milky sunshine beaming through! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 A little surprised RAH doesn’t have the triad in a WWA, pretty much every model has a big winter event for GSO to INT. Seeing the RGEM is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Let me tell you the tale of a snowstorm with no parent high. It was the eve of a storm system, all the weenies gleaming at the models sudden "trend". Weenies wake up and all is cold, then when rain arrives all is toasty. Weenies disappoint and vent on Americanwx. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 12:07 AM, SN_Lover said: Let me tell you the tale of a snowstorm with no parent high. It was the eve of a storm system, all the weenies gleaming at the models sudden "trend". Weenies wake up and all is cold, then when rain arrives all is toasty. Weenies disappoint and vent on Americanwx. Expand Should jburns go ahead and start the vent thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 12:07 AM, SN_Lover said: Let me tell you the tale of a snowstorm with no parent high. It was the eve of a storm system, all the weenies gleaming at the models sudden "trend". Weenies wake up and all is cold, then when rain arrives all is toasty. Weenies disappoint and vent on Americanwx. Expand I know last year that ATL got their first ever severe freezing rain event without a wedge so anything can happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 12:07 AM, SN_Lover said: Let me tell you the tale of a snowstorm with no parent high. It was the eve of a storm system, all the weenies gleaming at the models sudden "trend". Weenies wake up and all is cold, then when rain arrives all is toasty. Weenies disappoint and vent on Americanwx. Expand And yet they still knew how to use the banter thread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I've been burned many times by surface layer warm air that doesn't evaporate as fast as I had hoped, but.... those other times often involved a thicker warm layer, and daytime snow in late february or march where solar insolation would eat in to accumulating snow even at 30 degree's. We are just a a couple weeks away from the solstice right now. I honestly would be ready to push my chips all in for a hammer job if all of the models weren't stuck on bottoming out the upstate at around 35/36. I just don't see how that will be the case if it's ripping it outside at 8am tomorrow morning like most models are showing. But if it is... we won't have any chance for accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 12:13 AM, SnowGoose69 said: I know last year that ATL got their first ever severe freezing rain event without a wedge so anything can happen Expand I can name numerous similar events here to what’s depicted tomorrow. Now, it does mean all three slots in the slot machine line up but it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 12:05 AM, mackerel_sky said: I'll enjoy my flurries, with milky sunshine beaming through! Expand See ya in the banter thread. BTW an obs thread for this event has been created. We're that close. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 11:45 PM, LithiaWx said: Here in Douglas just west of Atlanta it’s going to be feast or famine. We’ve been safely in the snow on all models but a last minute jump of 20-40 miles will screw us over. I expect to see snow falling most of the day tomorrow but little accumulation. Possibly the Xmas day storm redux here in Atlanta. Expand I was thinking the same thing earlier that the Christmas storm would be a good analog. It snowed all day but didn't stick until sundown. We did get 3" or so then so I ended up happy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Snowing in San Antonio TX atm per my cousin via FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 12:14 AM, burrel2 said: I've been burned many times by surface layer warm air that doesn't evaporate as fast as I had hoped, but.... those other times often involved a thicker warm layer, and daytime snow in late february or march where solar insolation would eat in to accumulating snow even at 30 degree's. We are just a a couple weeks away from the solstice right now. I honestly would be ready to push my chips all in for a hammer job if all of the models weren't stuck on bottoming out the upstate at around 35/36. I just don't see how that will be the case if it's ripping it outside at 8am tomorrow morning like most models are showing. But if it is... we won't have any chance for accumulations. Expand This is my main concern as well. This scenario seems like our version of Groundhog Day. We start tracking, guidance shows cold is there, looks like we're on the northern fringe with no QPF, NW track commences, enter WWA, plenty of QPF, temps are a problem. Boundary level problems almost never resolve unless we have crazy low wetbulbs. This time we're already moist and cloudy with temps in mid 40s. I would almost bet 85 through the upstate doesn't get below about 37 or 36. And I've seen many times where rates don't overcome BL and ground temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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