Rhart Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: HRR looks rainy for my area through hr 17 Can you link HRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Rhart said: Can you link HRR It's on TT and pivotal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rhart said: Can you link HRR https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017120719&fh=23&xpos=7&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, Powerball said: NAM started out good, then it crapped out as thing shifted out of AL. Looked pretty good to me still. I woke up this morning on the northern edge of things and now the rain line is creeping up like 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, toxictwister00 said: 12z run updated on here. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html EDIT: Just realized that was the Canadian. D'oh! You had it correct though...that's the 12z RGEM thru hr 48, then it kicks in with the CMC Global after 48hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Dont just throw out the RAP with the ptypes. I cant tell you how many times I've seen that model sniff out a warm layer when every other model is good to go. It's showing some very strong lift along 85 from ATL-CLT. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Dont just throw out the RAP with the ptypes. I cant tell you how many times I've seen that model sniff out a warm layer when every other model is good to go. It's showing some very strong lift along 85 from ATL-CLT. We'll see. Speaking from experience here. The lowest level is going to be a killer for some.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhart Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 This is looking better and better for BHM, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Buckets...ColdRain, maybe for this winter we changd your name to HeavySnow. This is a lot of cold rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Hi Res NAM is beautiful 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Last January the NAM and the HRRR were great for showing the rain/snow cutoff. The HRRR wouldn’t budge and it was right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I tell you what, my confidence is fairly high that Lake Toxaway is going to see a good wallop of snow from this....hoist the Winter Storm Warnings there Isohume! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Last January the NAM and the HRRR were great for showing the rain/snow cutoff. The HRRR wouldn’t budge and it was right. So what's the HRRR telling us (Cary-Apex) now pack for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: I tell you what, my confidence is fairly high that Lake Toxaway is going to see a good wallop of snow from this....hoist the Winter Storm Warnings there Isohume! It sure is along with the southern facing mountains in SW NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Last January the NAM and the HRRR were great for showing the rain/snow cutoff. The HRRR wouldn’t budge and it was right. I'm really pulling for the HRRR. It along with the RAP look better for our area: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Last January the NAM and the HRRR were great for showing the rain/snow cutoff. The HRRR wouldn’t budge and it was right. Well it looks like this time around, they're diverging. HRRR trending slightly cooler and NAM is trending slightly warmer. HRRR is way better for the Atlanta area than the recent 18z NAM run/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Hi Res NAM is beautiful Especially for us in Danville! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: Well it looks like this time around, they're diverging. HRRR trending slightly cooler and NAM is trending slightly warmer. HRRR is way better for the Atlanta area than the recent 18z NAM run/ I can’t tell really on the 12Z RGEM but it appears to be not as amped as the 18z NAM in your area either. The ukmet is darn close though. 850 is like -0.4C in ATL the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Well, damn. They really didn't sugar-coat that - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, EmersonGA said: Looked pretty good to me still. I woke up this morning on the northern edge of things and now the rain line is creeping up like 2015. It's still ended up pretty good, but not as good as the initial frames suggested. The QPF in the cold sector dropped off somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Here's the latest RAP at hour 20: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Here's the HRRR sounding for Friday AM at RDU along with the corresponding reflectivity map. That's a heavy, wet snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, griteater said: I tell you what, my confidence is fairly high that Lake Toxaway is going to see a good wallop of snow from this....hoist the Winter Storm Warnings there Isohume! 9 minutes ago, Met1985 said: It sure is along with the southern facing mountains in SW NC. Yea, from Henderson to Macon will see a good hit I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I don't think isohume is going to hoist warnings for 1-2" at lake toxaway! Based on the post above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: Well, damn. They really didn't sugar-coat that - lol This one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: Well, damn. They really didn't sugar-coat that - lol Even the mountains look depressing. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rhart said: This is looking better and better for BHM, correct? Birmingham is an area that struggles to get good setups for snow. Good chance IMO that you see some with this system with some light accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 GSP usually starts low and gradually increases as the event closes in but they dont have much time, especially if places get 3-6 inches like some models show.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Do any of you think they will send out Winter Storm Warnings for Danville, in Southern VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I will say the guys and gals at GSP do a great job and know the area very well. No matter what the models are showing, I would lean on them, especially as difficult as this area is to forecast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now