neatlburbwthrguy Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I would be shocked if ATL got anything big from this. It’s possible but making a forecast here you really have to go just up to 2 inches on cold surfaces. This isn’t a closed low or dynamic system where intense rates are likely and it’s occurring at a bad time of day for accumulation. One factor I think that is killing this for ATL is what I call “early wet bulbing” where you get precip too early before dry air really works in and when you finally do start going to all snow you don’t have the potential you would have had if you stayed dry. If for whatever reason the precip from 23-07Z stays south of ATL and they can get to 23-24-25 on dewpointa this even becomes much more dangerous for them thanks for the input goose, much appreciated. i agree if we can get dewpoints in low to mid 20's then we may be in for a surprise. with you as well, i don't think anything major on the roadways at this point but 2 inches on grass, roofs, car tops is def possible, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: This is a big shift for the GEFS- previous runs had half of the members had a trace or nothing. Very interesting. Models must be picking up on some increased precipitation bursts. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: This is a big shift for the GEFS- previous runs had half of the members a trace or nothing. Surprised you're still so hung up on the GEFS...it was a huge failure last winter. Every member had me getting at least 2 inches of snow in the January storm. Nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: Surprised you're still so hung up on the GEFS...it was a huge failure last winter. Every member had me getting at least 2 inches of snow in the January storm. Nada. The GFS didn’t see the warm nose in that storm. Unfortunately the nws and many forecasters bought into it partially and kept snow totals too high when it was evident the event was likely going to be mostly FZRA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 We toss the RAP! It slides the Mack snow hole into GA , over towards Lookouts area, and gives me 4"! I'll take 1" accounting for warm ground , sun angle, and mixing issues! The Euro and EPS, kind of did the same thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: We toss the RAP! It slides the Mack snow hole into GA , over towards Lookouts area, and gives me 4"! I'll take 1" accounting for warm ground , sun angle, and mixing issues! The Euro and EPS, kind of did the same thing! Be real careful with the warm ground deal. I find that doesn’t work often. If you’ve got a December sun angle and you snow even one half inch per hour the warm ground deal doesn’t often hold up. Many places jn GA have been in the 40s now for 36 hours plus. I always bring up Albany NY being 85 degrees and then seeing 15 inches of snow the next day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Sref increased. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Sref increased. This is like an exact climo southeast snowstorm...why do we need to spend 80 hours a day looking at this stuff 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Be real careful with the warm ground deal. I find that doesn’t work often. If you’ve got a December sun angle and you snow even one half inch per hour the warm ground deal doesn’t often hold up. Many places jn GA have been in the 40s now for 36 hours plus. I always bring up Albany NY being 85 degrees and then seeing 15 inches of snow the next day I'm really concerned about 850 temps! Almost all the models yesterday and this morning showed 0 snow in the Upstate! Now The Euro and most of the short range models give a slight bullseye over my area! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: This is like an exact climo southeast snowstorm...why do we need to spend 80 hours a day looking at this stuff Cause were suckers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: This is like an exact climo southeast snowstorm...why do we need to spend 80 hours a day looking at this stuff How much for GFS , in your opinion, with these new runs of RAP, HRR and such!? Still mainly CAESARS HEAD and areas mainly!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 NAM at 18 already tilting moreso to the northwest once again. I look for increased qpf along the western side once again as the frames advance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 NAM is a tiddly bit colder and much slower with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I think a big run is coming from the NAM looking at 24hr panel. Much higher qpf totals into northern AL/MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 NAM slower but juiced up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: Surprised you're still so hung up on the GEFS...it was a huge failure last winter. Every member had me getting at least 2 inches of snow in the January storm. Nada. Yeah. We're close enough to the storm that it's time to start looking closer at the higher resolution models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: NAM slower but juiced up! Looking at the setup at 5H, I always look for the trough to be over north central Arkansas for the big dogs for the foothills and southern VA and that is exactly what it is showing right now. I really expect a good presentation on the 850 maps upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wow said: NAM slower but juiced up! Hope it loses that pesky warm nose somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I'm really concerned about 850 temps! Almost all the models yesterday and this morning showed 0 snow in the Upstate! Now The Euro and most of the short range models give a slight bullseye over my area! Hug the bullseye models. They can't always be wrong can they? i haven't had a chance to look at models but from what I'm hearing I'm liking the colder trends. Maybe the cold air is more robust than the January storm and we don't have to fight 33 degree rain for the entirety of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Warm nose over me causing the models to lessen the totals. If it ends up verifying, its going to be the 3rd storm in a row where i got warm nosed and the next county over has atleast 2 inches on the ground ): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, shahroz98 said: Warm nose over me causing the models to lessen the totals. If it ends up verifying, its going to be the 3rd storm in a row where i got warm nosed and the next county over has atleast 2 inches on the ground ): It's called climatology. Now large parts of the Atlanta metro is even struggling with 850 mb temps. Not surprised. It looks really similar to January's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 NAM started out good, then it crapped out as thing shifted out of AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Raleigh can almost sniff the snow/ice... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: NAM started out good, then it crapped out as thing shifted out of AL. We've been NAM'd again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, WarmNose said: We've been NAM'd again Thank goodness. I was getting worried the models were trending back towards snow here with the latest Euro run and all. Whew. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 One of the well respected Mets in the mid atlantic forum, MillvilleWX: "The better jet alignment over the NE will probably lead to another 40-50 mile shift in the overall QPF shield. I’ll let it play out, but if you want a better expansion of precip on the NW side, this is exactly what you want to see. Atmosphere is slowed a touch with the more amplified look East of the Rockies." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 It sucks not having the RGEM because it can really let you know if the NAM is out to lunch or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDUBRDU Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: Raleigh can almost sniff the snow/ice... Maybe I'll go have dinner in Durham 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It sucks not having the RGEM because it can really let you know if the NAM is out to lunch or not 12z run updated on here. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html EDIT: Just realized that was the Canadian. D'oh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 HRR looks rainy for my area through hr 17 that warm nose in NE GA and Upstate SC is just atrocious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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