CaryWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 What a dry bob! Pretty big shift. Need to see the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, jjwxman said: Looks like the classic case of GOM convection blocking moisture transport to me. Nothing can kill a storm system in the SE faster than GOM convection. It's the SW that turned more negative near the lakes allowing the lakes low to be more dominant. This caused the gulf low to be weaker and pull more warm air to the lakes low. #Lakeslow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 This NAM trend is not surprising, just coming to the GEFS and EPS, a general 1-3" event here in GA, mainly from here SW. It was never going to stick much anyway, its early Dec for pity's sake, so no cliff diving here since I was suspicious of a big event all along. If I get a nice dusting to an inch or two on the grass it will be a bonus considering how much more of the winter is left. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 KK saying brief dusting for I-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 What's happening with the NAM ? i dont have the model available so i dont know whats going on. Someone want to elaborate ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, shahroz98 said: What's happening with the NAM ? i dont have the model available so i dont know whats going on. Someone want to elaborate ? Bogus run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, shahroz98 said: What's happening with the NAM ? i dont have the model available so i dont know whats going on. Someone want to elaborate ? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017120700&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 here’s a link to the model. It is showing a lot less snow than last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, No snow for you said: KK saying brief dusting for I-85 Thanks for that! I'm out of town! Needed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, shahroz98 said: What's happening with the NAM ? i dont have the model available so i dont know whats going on. Someone want to elaborate ? This is what happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Bogus run.... Do you think this'll be a trend ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, shahroz98 said: Do you think this'll be a trend ? If the Euro follows suit then yes, still a little too early to tell but navigating this tight rope is similar to the 1st week of March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Esasky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, shahroz98 said: Do you think this'll be a trend ? Only if future runs are this bad or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 GFS out to 21 and I don't think it's going to budge....height field across the SE is an exact match and little change out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS out to 21 and I don't think it's going to budge....height field across the SE is an exact match and little change out west RGEM has a warm nose killing off any wintry precip just east of Atlanta and beyond. I dont know how reliable that model is but its sorta falling in with the NAM and GFS at this point ): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS out to 21 and I don't think it's going to budge....height field across the SE is an exact match and little change out west I’d say the GFS and Euro have done pretty well with this so far. They stuck with their guns and haven’t showed the amped UK or CMC solutions... it remains to be seen how it verifies but the GFS and Euro blend seems like a good way to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 GFS is actually a little flatter than 18z at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Imo It looks like the NAM caved to the GFS. The GFS has had that snow zone in LaGrange for a couple of days now with everyone else getting zilch. That's exactly what the last NAM run looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 GFS not going to get it done.... So far we have the NAM and GFS with very weak if at all a system.... If Euro confirms, I'd say this might be a GFS win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 *crickets* Turn the lights out and close down the thread, this one's over. Goodnight, Irene! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Is the reduced totals on the NAM due to not enough precip in certain areas or not enough cold ? I dont get why it would do a 180 at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Good thing it’s the first week of December!! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Yall sure pull the plug fast. Good lord. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Canadian backing off totals from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Canadian about to Cave... This is what you call... "Southeast Weather" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, shahroz98 said: RGEM has a warm nose killing off any wintry precip just east of Atlanta and beyond. I dont know how reliable that model is but its sorta falling in with the NAM and GFS at this point ): It was much wetter overall than the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I can't believe the original outlier GFS is going to win this one. Just goes to show you, pick the warmest or driest model when it comes to winter and stick with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Can no one just be happy with seeing some mood flakes this early in season? At best this would be super-slushy anywhere in our forum correct? Super-warm ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I’ll take it!!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Have yet to see a model run in 2 days now that doesn't paint 2 to 3 inches plus in my county( exception 0z nam). Still think there will be a lollipop location somewhere in triad which covers eastern alamance all the way back to pilot mtn where a 2 to 3 inches verifies. It'll be localized but someone will get a good enough rate to cover up the blades of grass. Asphalt on the other hand is a different matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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