shahroz98 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The latest NAM run looks alot less juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 12:24 AM, Jonathan said: I wouldn't rule out a tick more than token flakes for us, Frosty! Watch this thing jog NW tomorrow. Expand That's my hope, but it's early in the season. So they might catch this one and us next time!! I would like to see a storm where most on the board sees snow...... Hey I love my fellow weather junkies, But I'm really punching the walls hoping on that NW jog. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 12:28 AM, BIG FROSTY said: That's my hope, but it's early in the season. So they might catch this one and us next time!! I would like to see a storm where most on the board sees snow...... Hey I love my fellow weather junkies, But I'm really punching the walls hoping on that NW jog. lol Expand Same! We need a good old fashioned southern slider then a turn up the coast to give the Raleigh guys a shot too. I always root for everyone, but when it comes down to it, everyone wants it in their own backyard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 12:32 AM, Jonathan said: Same! We need a good old fashioned southern slider then a turn up the coast to give the Raleigh guys a shot too. I always root for everyone, but when it comes down to it, everyone wants it in their own backyard. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Here is Brad P. first call map. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Taking a look at the euro closer tonight and it looks like mostly snow for Raleigh with some rain mixed in obviously. The sfc temps aren't a huge issue, falling into the lower 30's by the late afternoon/early evening. 850mb temps oscillate from 0c to -2c. It's all going to come down to how amped this thing is once it navigates the MS Valley. If it's closer to the NAVGEM, western NC get's slammed, if it's the euro, eastern NC is the prime spot. With the lack of cold air damming, it's all going to be dependent on SLP/850mb low track and strength. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 12:47 AM, AirNelson39 said: Here is Brad P. first call map. . Expand But he said zero flakes outside the mountains yesterday!? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Wlos 13 call at 6 tonight. Seems very reasonable given where we are. Stated best place is N of I-85 and S of I-40. I would change the word worst to best though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 12:49 AM, mackerel_sky said: But he said zero flakes outside the mountains yesterday!? Expand Just curious, what should he have said yesterday? I'm sure you know there a ramifications being a broadcast met? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 12:57 AM, strongwxnc said: Wlos 13 call at 6 tonight. Seems very reasonable given where we are. Stated best place is N of I-85 and S of I-40. . Expand Mark I got a feeling some folks just a mile or two from each other are gonna be disappointed. Going to be such a sharp gradient in regards to precip and BL temps. Fine line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:02 AM, WXinCanton said: Just curious, what should he have said yesterday? I'm sure you know there a ramifications being a broadcast met? Expand He said it was a case of cold chasing the moisture, and that never works out..... This is clearly not the case. He should have been honest about the set-up even though he didn't expect snow from it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:02 AM, WXinCanton said: Just curious, what should he have said yesterday? I'm sure you know there a ramifications being a broadcast met? Expand Atleast mention the chance, which he did not. There are no absolutes in weather, so when they say "zero" chane of anything, it's annoying and not helpful to the public at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:02 AM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Mark I got a feeling some folks just a mile or two from each other are gonna be disappointed. Going to be such a sharp gradient in regards to precip and BL temps. Fine line. Expand Agreed! Flakes falling would be a win!! Only flakes I saw last year, was in March! I'll drive an hour up your way to play in snow, may be our only chance!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:07 AM, mackerel_sky said: Atleast mention the chance, which he did not. There are absolutes in weather, so when they say "zero" chane of anything, it's annoying and not helpful to the public at all Expand Please tell me about the absolutes. The mind of a weenie, we all have it. I'm guilty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 12:33 AM, BIG FROSTY said: Expand Agreed. I'm ready for winter. After last couple Decembers I believe a lot of people on here are ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:10 AM, WXinCanton said: Please tell me about the absolutes. The mind of a weenie, we all have it. I'm guilty Expand Hey where in Canton are you? I'm on the NW side of Cumming. Looks like you and I will be right on the edge of where the colder temps meet the lightest of precip. What are you thinking for our areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:17 AM, CummingGaSnow said: Hey where in Canton are you? I'm on the NW side of Cumming. Looks like you and I will be right on the edge of where the colder temps meet the lightest of precip. What are you thinking for our areas? Expand Hickory Flat area. We need QPF and precip to come NW vs current guidance. I would go with a car topper or deck dusting with what we have now, we are on the edge of a very sharp precip cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:26 AM, WXinCanton said: Hickory Flat area. We need QPF and precip to come NW vs current guidance. I would go with a car topper or deck dusting with what we have now, we are on the edge of a very sharp precip cutoff. Expand I know it sucks. I really hope I don't have to end up driving south (of all places) to see the first accumulating snow. I've heard people on here say the models tend to not throw precip back far enough NW in these type situations so if they're right and our thermal profiles look good (which they do, especially as far NW as us), game on! Fingers and toes crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 21z SREF looks like the 9z from today, which is good since the 15z was a step back. Still not CMC/UKMET level to say the least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:30 AM, Wow said: 21z SREF looks like the 9z from today, which is good since the 15z was a step back. Still not CMC/UKMET level to say the least. Expand Bring the goods Wow! Talk to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 SREF plumes mean is about the same for Gainesville, just over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:26 AM, WXinCanton said: Hickory Flat area. We need QPF and precip to come NW vs current guidance. I would go with a car topper or deck dusting with what we have now, we are on the edge of a very sharp precip cutoff. Expand BTW Hickory Flat is in SE Cherokee right? Could be Cherokee is where there is a tight gradient. You and I might score and someplace like Waleska gets almost nothing. One thing's for sure, I work friday but productivity will be at a bare minimum lol. It's awesome to have a threat this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nam run should be initializing soon. The thing that killed us today was that darn bowling ball that drops out of Minnesota. I believe HKY and myself caught this around the 57-66 hr Mark. Keep an eye on that as to how telling the run will be for tonight’s 0z run, along with the orientation of the trough axis. Two indicators if this thing goes the right or wrong way on us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:37 AM, WXinCanton said: SREF plumes mean is about the same for Gainesville, just over an inch. Expand What about for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:38 AM, CummingGaSnow said: What about for us? Expand Explore any site you want by using the interactive map below the plumes: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Mean SREF Plume for ATL is 1.37" and looks to follow that trend right up I-85 to 1.71" at GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nice mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 A 3-4" snow mean in South TX ? That can't be right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:45 AM, packbacker said: Nice mean... Expand There are far too many winters where we don't even get as much snow as that is advertising, in early December no less! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:46 AM, Snowless in Carrollton said: A 3-4" snow mean in South TX ? That can't be right ? Expand Yep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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