The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

[tramadoc]

3 minutes ago, shahroz98 said:

Is there a warm nose near Atlanta or NE Ga ? Im new to some of this stiff so I can't really tell

By the looks of the map posted that you questioned, it doesn't look like it.

[WarmNose]

3 minutes ago, shahroz98 said:

Is there a warm nose near Atlanta or NE Ga ? Im new to some of this stiff so I can't really tell

Small hint at a warm nose on the SC GA border then it does something funny as you get up into east central NC 

[CaryWx]

13 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

From RAH:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Wednesday...

...Increasing chance of snow across portions of Central NC between
midnight and 7 AM Saturday, with some accumulation on elevated and
grassy surfaces possible...

Friday and Friday Night: Central NC will be under the influence of
deep southwesterly flow aloft as a strong upper level trough to the
west swings eastward toward the region. Disturbances in the flow
aloft will move over the area, resulting in periods of heavier
precipitation. At the surface, Central NC will be sandwiched between
the stalled front off the Mid-Atlantic coast and high pressure
ridging eastward from the west. With the high in an unfavorable
location, the best push of cold air will likely get hung up along
the mountains. Expect much of the precipitation to fall as rain,
especially early on. Despite the delayed CAA, strong lift in a
saturated dendritic growth zone will likely result in precipitation
rates strong enough for snow to occur where temperatures are in the
32-36 degree range. This will be an event where the cold air is
chasing the precipitation, thus expect most of the precipitation to
fall as liquid. Liquid equivalent precipitation totals will range
from less than a quarter of an inch in the northwest to nearly 1.75
inches in the southeast. Given the warm ground and boundary layer,
snow will have a difficult time accumulating except for on elevated
and grassy surfaces and under high precipitation rates. Generally
less than an inch of snow is expected at this time, primarily
between midnight and 7 AM Saturday. Best chances for accumulating
snow along a line from Lexington to Burlington to Roanoke Rapids,
generally be along and west of US-1. Highs on Friday in the low to
mid 40s with overnight lows in the upper 20s NW to mid 30s SE. Temps
are not expected to fall below freezing in the Triad until after
midnight.

Saturday through Wednesday: As the strong upper disturbance swings
through the region Saturday morning, the main precipitation axis will
shift east of the area. At the surface, in the wake of the
disturbance aloft, west-northwest flow will advect strong cold air
into Central NC ahead of a secondary strong vort max aloft diving
southward over the area. Saturday and Sunday will be the coldest
days Central NC has had in a while, with highs in the low to mid 40s
and overnight lows in the low to mid 20s (possibly dipping below 20
in outlying areas Sunday night). Generally dry weather expected for
the remainder of the period although a few sprinkles/flurries early
next week cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will moderate a bit
Monday and Tuesday before another cold front moves through the area.

&&
 

 

Doing a double take on the Hwy 1 corridor with the cities mentioned because they don't square....unless RAH NWS means the space in between Hwy 1 and a virtual line drawn connecting those cities 

[wncsnow]

RGEM looks similar through 33, maybe a little slower and a tick further south with SLP placement 

[BullCityWx]

A few other EPS means: 

Davidson: 2.6"
Lexington: 3"
Asheboro: 3.7"
Raleigh: 2.5"
CLT: 2.8"
 

[snowdevil]

Wow, I cannot believe how good this is looking for Atlanta. This is one of the more sneakier snow storms I have seen in years.

[BullCityWx]

RGEM looks maybe a bit lighter this run. Not much difference. 

[Snow haven]

4 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Doing a double take on the Hwy 1 corridor with the cities mentioned because they don't square....unless RAH NWS means the space in between Hwy 1 and a virtual line drawn connecting those cities 

Right? Hwy 1 goes right through Rockingham and im looking at just rain as well as some counties to the west of me Anson, Union...

[HWY316wx]

I am just going to leave this right here.

[packbacker]

RGEM look solid for the ATL...

[WarmNose]

Wintry mix being reported in Spartanburg..foreshadowing for an over performer this weekend? Hmm

[ajr]

9 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

A few other EPS means: 

Davidson: 2.6"
Lexington: 3"
Asheboro: 3.7"
Raleigh: 2.5"
CLT: 2.8"
 

I just don’t see how Raleigh’s temp profile supports anything the models are spitting out 

[CaryWx]

1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

Wintry mix being reported in Spartanburg..foreshadowing for an over performer this weekend? Hmm

It's 47 in Spartanburg man--what's mixing in with it exactly? 

[Rhart]

Any chance we get a little more north and get BHM anything? 

[DopplerWx]

1 minute ago, ajr said:

I just don’t see how Raleigh’s temp profile supports anything the models are spitting out 

going to have wet grass and wet roads, little to nothing will stick outside of car tops and elevated surfaces. model sees .2" qpf falling as snow and paints it on a clown map that people get excited about when .18" of that qpf will melt as soon as it makes contact.

[shahroz98]

3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

going to have wet grass and wet roads, little to nothing will stick outside of car tops and elevated surfaces. model sees .2" qpf falling as snow and paints it on a clown map that people get excited about when .18" of that qpf will melt as soon as it makes contact.

My local mets in Atlanta are now starting to talk about the potential. One of them is saying 1/2 to 1 inch for now. Its a good sign IMO

[wncsnow]

Out to 27 GFS may be more suppressed than 12Z run..

[WarmNose]

6 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

It's 47 in Spartanburg man--what's mixing in with it exactly? 

Bobby Mac said pingers on the radio 

[lilj4425]

7 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

It's 47 in Spartanburg man--what's mixing in with it exactly? 

Sleet.

[Snow haven]

7 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

It's 47 in Spartanburg man--what's mixing in with it exactly? 

also reported light sleet in Fuquay at 48 degrees

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Out to 27 GFS may be more suppressed than 12Z run..

Thats the trend right now... suppressed and more east.... doesnt look like this will be what we were hoping for.

[wncsnow]

Its very similar to 12Z run thru hr 36

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Thats the trend right now... suppressed and more east.... doesnt look like this will be what we were hoping for.

Not sure what you're watching. May want to turn the channel. 

[J.C.]

The GFS is all by itself right now.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

It's embarrassing we have an American model as bad as the GFS

[wncsnow]

Its fair to say the UKMET could be as out to lunch as the GFS with its extreme solution

[WarmNose]

GFS still a crappy outlier. Idk how any Met could use the GFS to blend any sort of forecast right now

[Wow]

18z GFS precip axis shifted NW over the gulf coast with the sharper trough.  Still east of everyone else but giving it an A for effort.

[wncsnow]

Snowmap (more like dry/wet ground map)

[isohume]

6 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

GFS still a crappy outlier. Idk how any Met could use the GFS to blend any sort of forecast right now

The GFSux.