The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Yep about a 50 mile wobble east. Always going to see these small shifts back and forth up until about 24 hours out. 

Thats true but you usually want to see the NAM as the amped up and high QPF model.. not good for Western areas IMO...

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Thats true but you usually want to see the NAM as the amped up and high QPF model.. not good for Western areas IMO...

The CMC and UK are plenty amped. Almost to the point I'm worried about mixing here 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

The CMC and UK are plenty amped. Almost to the point I'm worried about mixing here 

I wouldnt worry about mixing at all in McDowell, lack of QPF is the big deal..This is in the EURO wheelhouse and its hard for me to think it is going to be a super amped bomb of a system when the Euro excels in handling southern stream lows

[No snow for you]

6 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I’ll still take 3.4 inches. Too bad none of it will stick due to soil temps. Lol. 

Rates will over come. 

[FallsLake]

Here's the NAM at hour 75 (Kuchera):

 

[LovingGulfLows]

I love the look of the 3km NAM for my area. Snow from Hour 47-56 so far.

 

EDIT: Looks like snow fom Hour 47-58, then scattered snow showers and flurries after. Don't seem to have much problems with mixing or warm nose...last year, 3KM NAM showed the eventual mixing issues I would have.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

24 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

top is 12z NAM, bottom is 18z, same time.

 

All I can see on these particular images is an SE ridge! I can't remember seeing such heavy snow THAT far south in Mexico then the 540 line goes though DELMARVA. Wow at that buckle!

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

I wouldnt worry about mixing at all in McDowell, lack of QPF is the big deal..This is in the EURO wheelhouse and its hard for me to think it is going to be a super amped bomb of a system when the Euro excels in handling southern stream lows

Euro is not what it use to be that's for sure. I like the UK now a days. We will see. Just glad to have something to track this early. 

[DopplerWx]

3k nam has pretty much all rain for clt to rdu east. warm nose rears its head.  

[JoshM]

High Res NAM totals MUCH better for all areas.

[PackGrad05]

I'm beginning to wonder if Raleigh will ever get a good snowstorm anymore...always a warm nose.

 

I also agree that this is a NW piedmont event.  

[griteater]

Thoughts:

1. My forecast map is based on where I think the models will end up, not where they necessarily are now. 

2. I like a more amped up solution closer to the UKMet and CMC.  Warmer.  More precip back to the west, even more than shown - models are notorious for being skimpy with precip on the NW side with Miller A's.  Also, jet structure (right entrance region of strong jet) is excellent for building precip back west.

3. I was mainly focused on NE GA / SC / NC on the map...didn't look hard at N GA into Bama or other states.

[BornAgain13]

Which is more accurate, 12kNAM Or 3K?

[snowlover91]

For those doubting the warm nose being shown... if you are near the 700mb 0C or higher line in NC, per soundings, there is a significant warm nose at the 700-800mb level that would give a nice cold 33F and rain. The warm air being pushed in is a real deal, even with a less amped solution Raleigh and surrounding areas would likely be a cold rain for the bulk of the heavy precip.

[SteveVa]

15 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

A warm nose is showing up this run. Verbatim would be pretty epic, but I don't like the look in general.

Agree. Verbatim snow totals are much better for our area this run (2-3" for Southside)

I got warm nose'd back in Jan which slashed my totals in half. I don't like that we have to rely on dynamic cooling. 

[snowlover91]

1 minute ago, JoshM said:

High Res NAM totals MUCH better for all areas.

I wouldn't use that map, I'm not sure what it uses to determine what is "snow" but soundings indicate rain for a large portion of those areas. The Kuchera ratio will give you a much better idea of where areas might see snow.

[wncsnow]

Curious to see if the RGEM comes in more suppressed looking. Could be a sign on things to come

[LovingGulfLows]

2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

I wouldn't use that map, I'm not sure what it uses to determine what is "snow" but soundings indicate rain for a large portion of those areas. The Kuchera ratio will give you a much better idea of where areas might see snow.

 

Yeah that's odd. Even on the projected radar of the 3KM NAM, those areas are rain pretty much through hour 60. Here's the projected radar at hour 56 on the 3km.

 

 

Not sure where that snowfall on that map is coming from for the eastern half of NC.

[FallsLake]

From RAH:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Wednesday...

...Increasing chance of snow across portions of Central NC between
midnight and 7 AM Saturday, with some accumulation on elevated and
grassy surfaces possible...

Friday and Friday Night: Central NC will be under the influence of
deep southwesterly flow aloft as a strong upper level trough to the
west swings eastward toward the region. Disturbances in the flow
aloft will move over the area, resulting in periods of heavier
precipitation. At the surface, Central NC will be sandwiched between
the stalled front off the Mid-Atlantic coast and high pressure
ridging eastward from the west. With the high in an unfavorable
location, the best push of cold air will likely get hung up along
the mountains. Expect much of the precipitation to fall as rain,
especially early on. Despite the delayed CAA, strong lift in a
saturated dendritic growth zone will likely result in precipitation
rates strong enough for snow to occur where temperatures are in the
32-36 degree range. This will be an event where the cold air is
chasing the precipitation, thus expect most of the precipitation to
fall as liquid. Liquid equivalent precipitation totals will range
from less than a quarter of an inch in the northwest to nearly 1.75
inches in the southeast. Given the warm ground and boundary layer,
snow will have a difficult time accumulating except for on elevated
and grassy surfaces and under high precipitation rates. Generally
less than an inch of snow is expected at this time, primarily
between midnight and 7 AM Saturday. Best chances for accumulating
snow along a line from Lexington to Burlington to Roanoke Rapids,
generally be along and west of US-1. Highs on Friday in the low to
mid 40s with overnight lows in the upper 20s NW to mid 30s SE. Temps
are not expected to fall below freezing in the Triad until after
midnight.

Saturday through Wednesday: As the strong upper disturbance swings
through the region Saturday morning, the main precipitation axis will
shift east of the area. At the surface, in the wake of the
disturbance aloft, west-northwest flow will advect strong cold air
into Central NC ahead of a secondary strong vort max aloft diving
southward over the area. Saturday and Sunday will be the coldest
days Central NC has had in a while, with highs in the low to mid 40s
and overnight lows in the low to mid 20s (possibly dipping below 20
in outlying areas Sunday night). Generally dry weather expected for
the remainder of the period although a few sprinkles/flurries early
next week cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will moderate a bit
Monday and Tuesday before another cold front moves through the area.

&&
 

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Some of the run to run comments on here are hilarious. Remember guys, in general:

- Temps are a problem outside elevation 99% of the time with very few exceptions (Jan 88/ Jan 11)

- The warm bubble you're seeing over NEGA and Upstate is climo (I know, I hate it too!). It doesn't always happen, but most of the time it will and nothing can be done about it. 

- There are always wobbles in track leading up to an event, and 95% of the time there are NW adjustments all the way up until go time. 

- Every model has had it's coup and it's fail, so hugging or jumping based on one model is a little silly.

- DO NOT take accumulation maps verbatim!

- Models are only tools, how many surprises have we seen the past few years no matter the model support? 

- Climo says a bust is way more likely than a pleasant surprise but a surprise is still possible. Don't over expect. 

- The vast majority of events outside elevation have mixing so expect that at your place if it's not all rain. 

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

I wouldn't use that map, I'm not sure what it uses to determine what is "snow" but soundings indicate rain for a large portion of those areas. The Kuchera ratio will give you a much better idea of where areas might see snow.

Just a little different, lol 

 

[magoos0728]

Any reason why KFFC has been quiet lately?

[Rainforrest]

9 minutes ago, griteater said:

Thoughts:

1. My forecast map is based on where I think the models will end up, not where they necessarily are now. 

2. I like a more amped up solution closer to the UKMet and CMC.  Warmer.  More precip back to the west, even more than shown - models are notorious for being skimpy with precip on the NW side with Miller A's.  Also, jet structure (right entrance region of strong jet) is excellent for building precip back west.

3. I was mainly focused on NE GA / SC / NC on the map...didn't look hard at N GA into Bama or other states.

Grit I’ll take that map and run. Lol

[WXinCanton]

1 minute ago, magoos0728 said:

Any reason why KFFC has been quiet lately?

FXUS62 KFFC 062043
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
343 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2017


...Potentially Hazardous Winter Weather Scenario Late Thursday
Night Through Saturday Morning...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Interesting but far from certain forecast over the next few days.
Region remains in a cold pattern with a series of waves moving
through the region. First wave brought the rain (and even some brief
periods of sleet) to all but northwest Georgia today. Indications
are that the next wave and surge of precipitation tomorrow into the
beginning of the extended forecast period, Friday/Friday night, will
be similar in distribution. Difference will be the temperature
profiles and therein lies the uncertainty. Right now it looks like
we start out tomorrow through much of tomorrow night with a cold
rain with some snow mixing in across west-central and north Georgia
by Friday morning. There is some potential for accumulations along
and north of the I-85 corridor by sun-up Friday, but that area
should be seeing fairly light precipitation amounts in that time
frame. We will need to keep a close eye on how the future runs of
the medium range models come together. For now confidence is not
high enough in the next 36 hours for any advisories or watches.

20

[snowlover91]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Just a little different, lol 

 

Yep and that's a much more realistic depiction of what the NAM is seeing and lines up with soundings far better. I'm just guessing here but I think Tidbits will see stuff as "snow" on the NAM maps if the surface temp is 33-35, that seems to be a common problem with the map and it did the same with the January storm earlier this year. I like the Kuchera better since it seems to show what would be snow based on soundings and a full atmosphere profile.

[BullCityWx]

The mean on the EPS doubled for me this run to get me to 2.6”

[LovingGulfLows]

3 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

Yep and that's a much more realistic depiction of what the NAM is seeing and lines up with soundings far better. I'm just guessing here but I think Tidbits will see stuff as "snow" on the NAM maps if the surface temp is 33-35, that seems to be a common problem with the map and it did the same with the January storm earlier this year. I like the Kuchera better since it seems to show what would be snow based on soundings and a full atmosphere profile.

 

I-85 storm to a tee from Alabama through NC with the widest part of the axis through GA.

[shahroz98]

14 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

For those doubting the warm nose being shown... if you are near the 700mb 0C or higher line in NC, per soundings, there is a significant warm nose at the 700-800mb level that would give a nice cold 33F and rain. The warm air being pushed in is a real deal, even with a less amped solution Raleigh and surrounding areas would likely be a cold rain for the bulk of the heavy precip.

Is there a warm nose near Atlanta or NE Ga ? Im new to some of this stiff so I can't really tell

[LovingGulfLows]

1 minute ago, shahroz98 said:

Is there a warm nose near Atlanta or NE Ga ? Im new to some of this stiff so I can't really tell

 

Not really. Some mixing issues at the start, but quickly changes over to snow before the heaviest precip gets there so a good event for Atlanta in honesty. Of course, this is only based on the 18z 3KM NAM model run.

[snowlover91]

3 minutes ago, shahroz98 said:

Is there a warm nose near Atlanta or NE Ga ? Im new to some of this stiff so I can't really tell

 

There is one just to the south and east of Atlanta but it looks okay there for now.