The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

[LovingGulfLows]

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

UKMet 850 and Sfc Temp panels are out.  It runs the 850 low thru the heart of GA to NC.  Looks really good for GA mtns to NC mtns...iffy just east of there

Might actually be decent for the Atlanta area this time around. In the January 2017 storm, the 850 mb low went slightly to the north of Atlanta if I recall so the warmer 850 winds are coming in from the southwest and could never change over quickly enough. If it actually goes South of Atlanta, I might be a little more confident this time around.

[griteater]

6 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Jan 22, 87 did have CAD the day before storm.  it was upper 30's with NE wind all day.  Not strong CAD but it was there.

Can have NE winds without cold air damming though.  We have north winds right now

[griteater]

Euro is taking a baby step, but not a big one

[odell.moton]

Euro is taking a baby step, but not a big one

Babystep to the NAM


.

[Lookout]

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro is taking a baby step, but not a big one

i'd say it's a little better

 

[magoos0728]

Icy precip falling in West Cobb county. 

[LovingGulfLows]

3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

i'd say it's a little better

 

 

Euro adds to yet another model showing that warm bubble in East GA/Upstate SC lol. Limiting any real chance of decent accumulation there. Everything I'm seeing says you want to either be North or West of Atlanta when this thing hits. Sucks for me and other East metro residents, but not surprised.

[Wow]

Definintely agreement on the leading wave for Friday to put down a light stripe from S MS thru CLT.  Question is if the southern wave axis starts to turn more neutral and bring in a continuing slug of precip for most of Saturday like the NAM/CMC/UKMET/NAVGEM

[LithiaWx]

11 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

Euro adds to yet another model showing that warm bubble in East GA/Upstate SC lol. Limiting any real chance of decent accumulation there. Everything I'm seeing says you want to either be North or West of Atlanta when this thing hits. Sucks for me and other East metro residents, but not surprised.

I’m just west of Atlanta at home and work on acworth. Trends today have been amazing for this area. 

 

Sleetfest moxed with drizzle in Acworth 

[wncsnow]

Yea, EURO still doesnt look like UKMET or CMC... Its a little bit of a compromise between those 2 and GFS 

Snowmap shows Coldrain jackpot over 6 inches lol

[Lookout]

14 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

Euro adds to yet another model showing that warm bubble in East GA/Upstate SC lol. Limiting any real chance of decent accumulation there.

again, i'm not terribly worried... I don't think the models are accurately showing surface temps based on the full soundings.  There could be some delay, maybe an hour or two vs elsewhere but it shouldn't matter a lot if there is sustained precip and decent rates. This run is a good 5 degrees colder than the previous runs here. Our biggest concern should be total precip amounts/rates not being heavy enough to dynamically/evap cool the column or any warm nose centered around 800mb..which the nam shows making it just to athens to elberton or so for a brief time before retreating back south. 

Good run for atlanta metro...they don't seem to have to worry about any of that based on most of the modeling....unless it ends up like the uk where they would end up mostly rain and snow would be mostly confined to west and north of the city. 

 

[CaryWx]

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yea, EURO still doesnt look like UKMET or CMC... Its a little bit of a compromise between those 2 and GFS 

Snowmap shows Coldrain jackpot over 6 inches lol

Hard for me to tell if that map has "Cary" in the heavy wet snow jackpot or not.  Can anyone post it with counties shown?

[snowlover91]

Just now, CaryWx said:

Hard for me to tell if that map has "Cary" in the heavy wet snow jackpot or not.  Can anyone post it with counties shown?

Here you go

[Buddy1987]

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yea, EURO still doesnt look like UKMET or CMC... Its a little bit of a compromise between those 2 and GFS 

Snowmap shows Coldrain jackpot over 6 inches lol

I still believe we will see a system leaning toward the more amped versions. This has been an evolving thing the last couple of days, whereas the models are playing catchup with the strength of the trough and with the continuation of moving the GL further north, northeast.

[WarmNose]

Euro looks great imo. It's always a huge plus when the Euro jumps on board with wintry precip. And I hope Lookout is right about the warm nose being modeled too strong

[CaryWx]

Thanks 91 

Yowzers!  Accounting for the overage maybe I still get a heavy wet 3" of the white stuff.  Bullseye at 96hrs out!  What could possibly go wrong?

[SnowGoose69]

The Op Euro since the upgrade 2 winters ago in systems that aren’t overly strong at the surface has tended to have a flat bias.  I think the ensembles are definitely going to be more north and west.   The Euro also tends to make slow adjustments.  Sometimes if models are catching onto the setup late the Euro can still be making adjustments inside 12-18 hours 

[Snow haven]

Not looking to good for mby, I look to be to far south/east to get in on the action, except rain and maybe some token flakes at the end.

[packbacker]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Op Euro since the upgrade 2 winters ago in systems that aren’t overly strong at the surface has tended to have a flat bias.  I think the ensembles are definitely going to be more north and west.   The Euro also tends to make slow adjustments.  Sometimes if models are catching onto the setup late the Euro can still be making adjustments inside 12-18 hours 

At 48-60 hours?   This should be in its wheelhouse now.  I would be surprised if the EPS is much further west and would expect spread to decrease.  I also think the snow axis will shift west as the precip will be further west I bet and eastern side wide will be warmer. 

[griteater]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Op Euro since the upgrade 2 winters ago in systems that aren’t overly strong at the surface has tended to have a flat bias.  I think the ensembles are definitely going to be more north and west.   The Euro also tends to make slow adjustments.  Sometimes if models are catching onto the setup late the Euro can still be making adjustments inside 12-18 hours 

It's kind of amazing how the Euro has fallen from how it used to be regarded

[CaryWx]

2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

At 48-60 hours?   This should be in its wheelhouse now.  I would be surprised if the EPS is much further west and would expect spread to decrease.  I also think the snow axis will shift west as the precip will be further west I bet and eastern side wide will be warmer. 

So pack, you're saying there's a chance still huh?

Honestly sounding like 'dripping snow' at best for our area---If we're lucky

Be interesting to see the ensemble mean on this one

[mackerel_sky]

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

So pack, you're saying there's a chance still huh?

Honestly sounding like 'dripping snow' at best for our area---If we're lucky

Be interesting to see the ensemble mean on this one

I think GSP is out!

Based on Euro 

[CaryWx]

The eastern edge already looks to have a hard cut to it.  Just because of climo and time of year alone I expect that to shift back about 30-50miles

[CoachLB]

[Buddy1987]

12 minutes ago, packbacker said:

At 48-60 hours?   This should be in its wheelhouse now.  I would be surprised if the EPS is much further west and would expect spread to decrease.  I also think the snow axis will shift west as the precip will be further west I bet and eastern side wide will be warmer. 

I consider you and I, along with the western folks to be in a good spot right now. 

[packbacker]

5 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

So pack, you're saying there's a chance still huh?

Honestly sounding like 'dripping snow' at best for our area---If we're lucky

Be interesting to see the ensemble mean on this one

Going to be really tough for us, even with the Euro track.  I think it will be probably back towards 85 with a narrow wet/snow band.

[isohume]

6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I think GSP is out!

Based on Euro 

Uh, new fcst isn't out yet. 

[WarmNose]

5 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

The eastern edge already looks to have a hard cut to it.  Just because of climo and time of year alone I expect that to shift back about 30-50miles

Exactly my thoughts. I85 and points north/west unless we get lucky and somehow don't have to fight rain and 45 degree temperatures at the onset of precipitation

[Cold Rain]

Final Call:

[olafminesaw]

My concern is that there is less cold air aloft than previously modeled. IMBY the column doesn't get colder than 27-28 on the Euro. So I could see flipping back to rain in the lighter precip. (assuming we even get heavy enough precip. to get snow.