The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

[BullCityWx]

IF the RGEM is right about surface temps and we dont have to battle off a warm layer at the surface to start, then it's obviously off to the races with how significant this event could be. 

[No snow for you]

1 minute ago, shahroz98 said:

I feel like there's a warm nose east of Atlanta on the NAM...is it just me ? i feel like its going to bust again

I wonder if that is part of the dynamics of that area that @Lookout talked about last year. I can't remember exactly what it is but that area is always warmer. 

[tramadoc]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Both. I think future frames will correlate and show with the Gulf wide open the way it is progged that in turn there will be more moisture influx. The tilt of the trough really helps and benefits the trend NW.

I've been watching over the last couple of days and it seems like it has gone from a positively tilted trough to a neutral stance. Are there chances it goes negative tilt?

[burrel2]

2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

I wouldn't put too much stock in the RGEM surface temps. It has a known cold bias and in events like this the NAM usually does the best in the short range.

Huh? Rgem normally does very well with thermal profiles.

[Buddy1987]

NAM and GFS through 27 not too far apart from one another at 5h. Trough is a little more positively tilted comparing it to the nam at the same timeframe.

Edit: More noticeable with the positive tilt at 30.

[BullCityWx]

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

Huh? Rgem normally does very well with thermal profiles.

Yeah, GSP has noted that several times. 

[Cheeznado]

Based on everything I see, from over half of the GEFS members with at least 1" here, some with 5" +, the Euro ensemble mean being over 1", the new very impressive NAM- I think we see snow almost for sure now, some accumulations possible on grass, cars etc area. Fingers crossed for the NAM to be right, but need to see more evidence, but the trends are favorable right now for it at least not being a total bust.

[Buddy1987]

I think the general theme so far I see out of the 12z gfs is that it too is trying to really sharpen the base of the trough in the same location as the nam did, in and around central OK. May be a sign of caving coming from the model.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Based on everything I see, from over half of the GEFS members with at least 1" here, some with 5" +, the Euro ensemble mean being over 1", the new very impressive NAM- I think we see snow almost for sure now, some accumulations possible on grass, cars etc area. Fingers crossed for the NAM to be right, but need to see more evidence, but the trends are favorable right now for it at least not being a total bust.

These types of systems are probably the most favorable for that region because they do not tend to move NW as much with time because they don’t have the deep surface low.  I’ve seen plenty end of destroying MCN though and missing ATL 

[snowlover91]

3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Huh? Rgem normally does very well with thermal profiles.

Not lately it hasn't. The blizzard in the NE earlier this year it was one of the colder models and busted horribly... the January storm last year it was also one of the colder models until within about 18 hours out and it busted pretty badly then too. Warm noses often come in stronger and warmer than modeled and the RGEM doesn't do very well with them at this range, within 24 hours it is very good but this far out it struggles.

[mackerel_sky]

3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Based on everything I see, from over half of the GEFS members with at least 1" here, some with 5" +, the Euro ensemble mean being over 1", the new very impressive NAM- I think we see snow almost for sure now, some accumulations possible on grass, cars etc area. Fingers crossed for the NAM to be right, but need to see more evidence, but the trends are favorable right now for it at least not being a total bust.

When Cheez says it's going to snow, it's going to snow! Knows his stuff 

[wncsnow]

GFS is likely going to end up suppressed like earlier runs, but maybe further west some 

[Buddy1987]

GFS and NAM are night and day at 57. Much more progressive on the side of GFS, with positive tilt almost exclusively the entire time. More keying on the 1st wave noted on the GFS. I really feel like its still on an island in respect to the other models.

[FlatLander48]

Just now, wncsnow said:

GFS is likely going to end up suppressed like earlier runs, but maybe further west some 

At hour 60 on the 12z, you are exactly correct. Low is a bit west, but not by much.

[wncsnow]

Yea, the GFS looks pretty bad, really thought it would start trending to a stronger system

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Yea, the GFS looks pretty bad, really thought it would start trending to a stronger system

Ive seen it do this garbage so many times. It stays southeast, and then within 48 hours it will support the camps that are all in general agreement.

Canadian and CMC will be telling. UKIE will be a precursor to the EURO imo.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

GFS a better run. Inching closer to NAM and CMC. It's going to come around, baby steps right now. 

[griteater]

Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

GFS a better run. Inching closer to NAM and CMC. It's going to come around, baby steps right now. 

Agree, it took a baby step toward a sharper wave...had slightly more precip west

[snowlover91]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Ive seen it do this garbage so many times. It stays southeast, and then within 48 hours it will support the camps that are all in general agreement.

Canadian and CMC will be telling. UKIE will be a precursor to the EURO imo.

Yep GFS is garbage since the upgrade, it just doesn't do well with much of anything. Did terrible with hurricane intensity/development this summer/fall and did horrible in the January snow this year. I wouldn't put much stock in it right now, CMC, UK and Euro are much more important IMO.

[HurricaneTracker]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Ive seen it do this garbage so many times. It stays southeast, and then within 48 hours it will support the camps that are all in general agreement.

Canadian and CMC will be telling. UKIE will be a precursor to the EURO imo.

Couldn't agree more.  We saw this all last winter too.  For whatever reasons, GFS does seem to be the last one to the party with these wave interactions in the winter.

[wncsnow]

GFS snow map (using Kuchera ratios)

[WarmNose]

19 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

I wonder if that is part of the dynamics of that area that @Lookout talked about last year. I can't remember exactly what it is but that area is always warmer. 

If I'm not mistaken It has a lot to do with the topography. As the low spins it's hard to get cold air in fast enough when the cold air source is coming from the north and western side of the apps as opposed to an eastern cold air source damming event 

[packbacker]

12z JMA...not as amped as yesterday's 12z run but still solid.

[Hvward]

6z NAVGEM still sharpening the base of the trough and absolutely hammer the western part of NC. Looks good for Upstate SC and parts of NE GA as well. RDU to CLT could be the battleground (of course).

[griteater]

UKMet looks amped up at hr72...detailed maps come out later

[packbacker]

UK...holy crap.  Looks like a big snow bomb for western NC up through MA to NE...would be my guess. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1021

[packbacker]

Just now, griteater said:

UKMet looks amped up at hr72...detailed maps come out later

That looks super amped at 72 and at 96.

[HKY_WX]

I think we'll see the EURO jump NW this afternoon most likely. This seems to be the timeframe (48 to 72 hrs out) it has been happening w/ SECS over the past few years. If this trend continues, starting to think western NC is going to be hammered. I will likely head home Friday afternoon if that's the case. This setup aloft is pretty ideal for that portion of the state.

[mackerel_sky]

2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

That looks super amped at 72 and at 96.

Take a picture of all the snow on the pallet of pre emergeant!! That would be epic! 

[WarmNose]

12 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS snow map (using Kuchera ratios)

Snow south of LaGrange? 

Toss