odell.moton Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I’m just a watcher here but it seems that if we are depending on one of these secondary models to pan out we are hoping for a pipe dream, am I right or off based....some of the maps used here I have never heard a local tv met use......they seem to always go gfs/euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Been watching the NAVGEM for the past few days and it has been pretty consistent (minus on run yesterday) with the LP being captured hanging right off the coast. Showed a deformation feature Monday afternoon.Monday 18zWednesday 00z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 GEFS went way up on snow totals in the NW half of NC on the 6z run, compared to 0z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, msuwx said: GEFS went way up on snow totals in the NW half of NC on the 6z run, compared to 0z. Is it taking into account maybe some lift with orographics and such? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Is it taking into account maybe some lift with orographics and such? Several ensemble members now have a stronger system, similar to what a few of the others models have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, msuwx said: Several ensemble members now have a stronger system, similar to what a few of the others models have. What is your gut call on this system? Nam/GFS are a weaker version. Euro is in the middle and then you have the camps of NAVGEM/GGEM/CMC/JMA and to an extent the UKIE. Tough forecast for the mets. Major implications if one camp sways to the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: What is your gut call on this system? Nam/GFS are a weaker version. Euro is in the middle and then you have the camps of NAVGEM/GGEM/CMC/JMA and to an extent the UKIE. Tough forecast for the mets. Major implications if one camp sways to the other. I think conservative is the way to go for the time being, and that's the way I continue to go in my public forecast. Way too many variables and too much uncertainty to be too whipped up into a frenzy at this juncture. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Will the interaction of the N stream energy make a difference? How far west it goes before diving south? Or how it catches up to southern stream in TX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Will the interaction of the N stream energy make a difference? How far west it goes before diving south? Or how it catches up to southern stream in TX? The upper levels drive the bus. So yes, it's all important 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The EURO took a step back from yesterdays run, showing snow in areas that will be borderline or rain and not much precip to the west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 33 minutes ago, msuwx said: GEFS went way up on snow totals in the NW half of NC on the 6z run, compared to 0z. SREF went up last run too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 the 9Z sref did increase for RDU... Which is surprising given some of the latest model trends. I know the SREF can be overdone, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: SREF went up last run too. Yeah, the 9z run really deepening the southern wave. Trend is clear that this thing is getting juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Pick your favorite model and go with that. Lol. GSP does like the SREF though so don’t discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 24 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The EURO took a step back from yesterdays run, showing snow in areas that will be borderline or rain and not much precip to the west... Looking at the Euro, GFS, and CMC ensemble means, each one is taking baby steps toward more precip back inland. Of the 3, the Euro Ens is making the smallest moves (part of that may be the large # of ensemble members). The CMC Ens Mean is the most amplified with the southern portion of the trough. GFS and Euro Ens are similar at the base of the trough. I think we'll continue to see slight sharpening of the wave and some increases to the precip back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The majority of the models are more amped than the EURO, carving out the upper low more distinctly than the euro over the MISS Valley. If last year was any indicator towards this year, we'll probably see the euro cave at some point. Just taking a look purely at the 500mb chart, it's a pretty classic setup, the only issue is it's so early in the season for a snowstorm. My gut tells me most of the area see's snow falling, but boundary layer conditions limit the ratios to something like 6:1, which would lower totals to a general 1-3 across the area, except in areas who get lucky with dynamic cooling. EURO has been keying in on an area from SE Wake county NE towards the coastline for days. So it will be interesting to see how that pans out. The SLP track is pretty ideal being decently offshore, so I don't see a ton of mid or upper level mixing being an issue. This will likely be a rain or snow scenario. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 For those of us in Georgia the EURO, NAM, CMC and members of the GEFS have given us some eye poppers. I for one am happy to see some areas of GA that don't normally get snow, being shown to cash in on many of these runs. Our media outlets down here are super conservative right now. James Spann has sounded the lookout for the Atlanta area and the Atlanta Mets will not jump on that train. I get being conservative but if models continue down the path they've been on, they will have no choice but to start to get serious about talking about it publicly. Personally, I want it to come a little more North but I will be happy just to see flakes fly and folks that usually miss out get some snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Only thing I can see on the 12z nam through hr 26 is that the trough axis is not as positively tilted. Maybe a better solution in future frames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 36 hrs you can definitely see the sharpening of the trough over central OK. Moisture increase is noticeable over southeast TX and the Gulf. Lets see where she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: 36 hrs you can definitely see the sharpening of the trough over central OK. Moisture increase is noticeable over southeast TX and the Gulf. Lets see where she goes. Heard Thursday is much drier! Maybe more consolidation for a good storm later Friday!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Nam is colder futher east in NC v/s 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, NCSNOW said: Nam is colder futher east in NC v/s 6z It is exclusively wanting to key on the second wave. Look at the trough axis setting up at hr 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Agree Buddy, should see a little more storm with this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Agree Buddy, should see a little more storm with this run I hope the lack of Thursday action, lets more cold air establish for the Friday big dog! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Agree Buddy, should see a little more storm with this run Trough axis is going nuts at 48. Extremely sharp over Dallas. One would think there would be much more moisture influx from the Gulf than what the Nam is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Agree Buddy, should see a little more storm with this run I'm thinking it's about to spit out a blockbuster hit! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, burrel2 said: I'm thinking it's about to spit out a blockbuster hit! Looks absolutely classic to me. The nose of the moisture is pointing right in our direction and the orientation of everything would allow all of that to stream right toward us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Only problem I see if the low is pretty far south in the Gulf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Naturally at 54, the westward moisture content is noticeable, building into Alabama etc.. Trough trying to go neutral/negative. This run is going to get interesting quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 at 54 showing good snow in S MISS and S Bama.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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