packbacker Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 There were some EPS members that had similar strength/tracks like the CMC, UK is not quite as amped but still would be snow for climo favored areas (85-77) I would think. Still 48-60 hours from this starting up in the Deep South. Not sure if this will track more west but more amped maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 CMC is just nuts...in a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Love seeing that from the CMC, but unless the EURO shows it, I'm not buying it. This is about as complicated for a setup for a storm as they come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: CMC is just nuts...in a good way. Is this even possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, griteater said: Grit being that the gfs is so far off from the others do you even include it in a blend right now? Of course unless the euro goes that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Some of our best storms come as pattern changes are happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Think I'll stay up for the EURO to crush my dreams. Where do you guys go to view the UKMET? The meteocentre site I have only goes out to 72 hours. Doesn't it go out to 120? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I would like to cash out now with my 9 inches of fantasy snow. Anyone know where the cage is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Think I'll stay up for the EURO to crush my dreams. Where do you guys go to view the UKMET? The meteocentre site I have only goes out to 72 hours. Doesn't it go out to 120? Meteocentre goes out to 144... but precipitation and h5 only goes out to 72 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Meteocentre goes out to 144... but precipitation and h5 only goes out to 72 Gotcha, thanks yoda! Anyway, to get back on topic, for those in western NC into southern VA (I-85 / I-77 corridors), do any models have a known sort of bias for not having enough precip on the western side of storm systems? Can't remember ever looking at a radar with a razor-edged cutoff on any side of a storm system. Even if precip is lighter (this isn't a huge system after all), I would think these areas would have a better shot at an all-snow event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 24 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Grit being that the gfs is so far off from the others do you even include it in a blend right now? Of course unless the euro goes that way. We have a mix of solutions right now with amped up runs (CMC/JMA), and positive tilt, flatter runs (NAM/GFS). Probably take a middle man approach, similar to the Ensemble Means....but my thinking has been that we would see this tick more amped with more precip inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Gotcha, thanks yoda! Anyway, to get back on topic, for those in western NC into southern VA (I-85 / I-77 corridors), do any models have a known sort of bias for not having enough precip on the western side of storm systems? Can't remember ever looking at a radar with a razor-edged cutoff on any side of a storm system. Even if precip is lighter (this isn't a huge system after all), I would think these areas would have a better shot at an all-snow event. As long as the wave doesn't go too positive tilt like the GFS, yes, I'd expect more precip inland than currently shown. Models tend to be too skimpy on the NW side with precip in Miller A's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 25 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Think I'll stay up for the EURO to crush my dreams. Where do you guys go to view the UKMET? The meteocentre site I have only goes out to 72 hours. Doesn't it go out to 120? You can get the UKMet early at this link, but you have to turn your head sideways to view it, lol - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 UKMet looks pretty healthy with precip...sfc low just off SC coast at hr72...850 zero deg from Norfolk to south of Charlotte to south of GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Ukie definitely is backing up the precip on this run for NC. .5'' to the foothills with close to .75''- 1'' in the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Euro looks kinda Canadian'ish, Higher amounts towards the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 00z JMA... continues to be cold and amped...would be a massive snow storm for the 85 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 FWIW, the JMA is dropping over 30mm of liquid over my back yard for the event, with 850's never rising above -2C. That's 1.18 inches of liquid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 So we have UKmet/JMA/CMC that are amped with precip shield all the way back to western TN. This puts the warm nose/ mixing with rain line closer to the i-85 corridor. JMA is the coldest in that regard. Then we have NAM/GFS with a more muted precip shield, but the warm nose/mixing in line is further south/east. Euro falls somewhere in the middle of the two camps. This doesn't take in to account the surface warm layer,(hopefully we can overcome that with decent rates.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Navgem is firmly in the ukmet/cmc/jma camp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 GFS is not our friend at 6z! Precip gets to just barely to near ATL and NE from there. Very slim NW edge snow toward Wilkesboro. Sucks really ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Good AFD from GSP this AM! Kind of taking a wait and see approach, but saying most should see some flakes Friday or Friday night! If that's not good enough, another shot at some snow N of 85 Tuesday night!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 From RAH: Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 500 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-071000- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange- Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- 500 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Hazardous weather is no expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. light rain on Thursday through Friday night may mix with or change to some wet snow, especially across the northern Piedmont. Accumulations, if they occur, should be limited to a dusting or so, and generally confined to elevated and grassy locations. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 06z Navgem doubles down on the westernNC/SC crush job. Verbatim it's showing well over a foot of snow in the mountains/foothills. Here is 7am Friday to 1pm Friday totals, and 7pm Friday to 1am Saturday totals... it's a lot of liquid!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAVGEM looks to have a deform band over us!!? How are temps that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: NAVGEM looks to have a deform band over us!!? How are temps that run? The battle lines for these runs appear to be similar to the winter storm we had last January. IE: you want to be north of I-85 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The battle lines for these runs appear to be similar to the winter storm we had last January. IE: you want to be north of I-85 Lol, aren't they all!? Guess I'll have hang out in TR Friday night! GEFS looks good for NC I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 You guys saw the CMC snowfall maps. Here's the freezing rain (I guess it's pulling more cold air in): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The battle lines for these runs appear to be similar to the winter storm we had last January. IE: you want to be north of I-85 Well, I live in downtown Greenville so I’m good. Lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The battle lines for these runs appear to be similar to the winter storm we had last January. IE: you want to be north of I-85 I live one mile north of I-85! Am I good? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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