Wow Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 It was about to do this on the 12z run as well. The lagging southern wave is given enough separation to develop. Interesting but unsupported as of now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 12z JMA is a big dog! This is the best look possible, IMO. I hope it's on to something. Hard to tell with the crummy maps, but it looks like this is drop 1"plus of liquid across my area with supportive temps for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: It was about to do this on the 12z run as well. The lagging southern wave is given enough separation to develop. Interesting but unsupported as of now. That would be best case scenario, for more people to see snow!? The first disturbance could bring in colder air, then this comes up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: 12z JMA is a big dog! This is the best look possible, IMO. I hope it's on to something. Is the timing pushed back, like on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Liquid from 7am Friday to 7am Saturday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 24 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 12z JMA is a big dog! This is the best look possible, IMO. I hope it's on to something. Hard to tell with the crummy maps, but it looks like this is drop 1"plus of liquid across my area with supportive temps for snow. Not all of that is frozen. Alot of that falls as rain. But to continue the Jma. H5 slightly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 So are we trending to more of a Saturday/Saturday night event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Can anyone clarify what this map means? SREF Snow Spread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, FLweather said: Not all of that is frozen. Alot of that falls as rain. But to continue the Jma. H5 slightly negative. It's all frozen for Western NC/SC(mby). Raleigh to Charlotte would most likely have mixing issues with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 GFS coming in... Need some play by play! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 18z GFS still trending more separation with the southern wave by 45 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 18z GFS looks like it's gonna be good, early stages looking like $$, if it's cold enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 GFS out to 72 - another baby step toward more precip inland and warmer in Carolinas (been saying warmer every run today it seems like) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Precip looks further NW this Run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS out to 72 - another baby step toward more precip inland and warmer in Carolinas (been saying warmer every run today it seems like) That inland moisture push is moving the cold air back a lot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: That inland moisture push is moving the cold air back a lot GFS is very warm at the surface, 38-42 which is why the output is showing mostly rain. Soundings support snow from Raleigh and points west IF the boundary layer cools like the NAM/Euro/CMC indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 When does the next maps come out Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, odell.moton said: When does the next maps come out Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 18z run of the cmc seems pretty bullish. Still showing that aggravating near surface warm bubble around here.. but overall..nw of the 12z run Total precip amounts between 06z friday and 06z saturday.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Wow said: 18z GFS still trending more separation with the southern wave by 45 ICON agrees!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 The inevitable NW trend is doing me no good...losing hope I'll see flakes at all. Today's runs have been consistently trending warmer At least I'll get some rain, ORF only had about an inch of rain during Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 18z GEFS mean through day 4. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I am noticing a ton of new folks in our forum this year. Would like to welcome everyone who considers this a wonderful hobby. I would like to make a few pointers, as I see some of the questions coming up. In regards to model times, the NAM and the GFS run 4 times per day. The NAM runs around the timeframes of 0400,1030,1600 and 2200 hours (06z,12z,18z and 00z). The GFS runs around 0530,1130,1730 and 2330 hours. The Euro runs two times per day, at approximately 0230 and 1430 (00z and 12z). The one word of caution I would give to the newbies is that a. The nam tends to over amplify storms and in my opinion, is a great tool to use for 2m temps, along with thermals and such (sniffes out low level temps for freezing rain events). The SREF, which is a Nam hybrid or to my understanding derives from the same Nam type setup (a met can explain this better) also has its tendencies to give you a precursor a lot of the times as to how the Nam run will play out before the Nam actually comes out. It too also has the tendency to over amplify. The SREF usually comes out around 2030-2100 hours. I would be happy to answer any questions to the best of my ability. I love when new folks come in and are interested in our hobby we all share on here. I am not a moderator or met by any means, but I enjoy the weather very much so, especially winter time. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 This is what is happening currently with this weekends system... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Check out the 18z GEFS Mean! A mean of about 3" for mby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Most of the ensemble members on the GFS are more bullsh with the westward extent of the precip shield compared to the OP. Maybe the JMA is on to something! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Most of the ensemble members on the GFS are more bullsh with the westward extent of the precip shield compared to the OP. Maybe the JMA is on to something! If the JMA is right my neighbor Cold Rain and I will be watching a cold rain. That's not a good track for central NC. Too close to the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Brad P giving a whopping 10% chance of wintry weather, basically the whole western Piedmont of NC and upstate SC! Says a few flakes may mix in with the rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Brad P giving a whopping 10% chance of wintry weather, basically the whole western Piedmont of NC and upstate SC! Says a few flakes may mix in with the rain! Wonder what he is seeing that would go against the NWS? He must be hugging the GFS's warm surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now