The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

[BullCityWx]

Just now, snowlover91 said:

Soundings are your best friend Nam is great for sniffing out warm noses but can be overamped at extended ranges of 60+ hours so I wouldn't put too much stock in this solution for now... but it is useful for seeing where a warm nose might set up.

My usual site that I get soundings from, it wouldnt even be in range until tomorrow evening. 

[snowlover91]

1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

My usual site that I get soundings from, it wouldnt even be in range until tomorrow evening. 

I use this site for soundings. They are a little slow to update but the soundings are solid. Just click on the map for the sounding and then adjust the position of it, it even gives a text output option which is very useful.

Sounding Link

[PackGrad05]

You remember what a warm nose did to our storm back in January?  (that was way less marginal looking than this one)

I think some wet snow is possible for the climatologically favored areas in the NW (of raleigh), but anything else is a cold rain with some flakes mixed in at times.

[Disc]

6 minutes ago, odell.moton said:

How reliable is the NAM vs other models


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It shouldn't be taken as gospel at this range. It really becomes useful for events within 36 hours. It's a finer resolution model, so it's better with the mesoscale aspect. i.e sniffing out warm noses and banding.

[mackerel_sky]

Looks good for mby, but temps very iffy, and it's the NAM

[DopplerWx]

5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

You remember what a warm nose did to our storm back in January?  (that was way less marginal looking than this one)

I think some wet snow is possible for the climatologically favored areas in the NW (of raleigh), but anything else is a cold rain with some flakes mixed in at times.

yep. every ensemble for the gfs and euro were showing 10"+ the morning of the storm and we got a cold rain and some sleet because of the warm nose.  i really don't see any reason to expect more than some token flakes rdu north with this one.

[Lookout]

7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

You remember what a warm nose did to our storm back in January?  (that was way less marginal looking than this one)

I think some wet snow is possible for the climatologically favored areas in the NW (of raleigh), but anything else is a cold rain with some flakes mixed in at times.

Let's be clear about the threat of  where any warm noses are...those on the northwest fringe of this (hopeful) precip shield shouldn't have much, if any, threat of warm noses...back across north ga/western carolinas. Of course that could change if this shifts markedly northwest but right now it's quite cold aloft in these areas.  If there is appreciable precip, temps should be plenty cold enough in the 85 corridor/western half of nc with very low freezing levels/wetbulb zero heights. But that's the main question, will there be enough precip to matter and take advantage of it. 

[BullCityWx]

7 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

I use this site for soundings. They are a little slow to update but the soundings are solid. Just click on the map for the sounding and then adjust the position of it, it even gives a text output option which is very useful.

Sounding Link

Thanks! I usually use plymouth because of the immediacy but again, they only go out to 60. 

[Buddy1987]

Not to be the debbie downer, but I think some folks may have their expectations set too high with the always over amped NAM. I would be highly suspect of what it is portraying, just from previous disappointments. 

[FallsLake]

Even with the NAM look, it would be a slush fest. Still I would consider this a win:

total accumulation for hour 84:

 

[BullCityWx]

Just now, FallsLake said:

Even with the NAM look, it would be a slush fest. Still I would consider this a win:

total accumulation for hour 84:

 

I think it probably snows most of the day on Friday but whatever moisture is left from Friday Night into Saturday has a good shot at sticking. 

[Lookout]

9 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

I use this site for soundings. They are a little slow to update but the soundings are solid. Just click on the map for the sounding and then adjust the position of it, it even gives a text output option which is very useful.

Sounding Link

an old one but good one....one of the first ones to offer point and click soundings. You are right though they are slower to update.  

[BullCityWx]

Just now, Lookout said:

an old one but good one....one of the first ones to offer point and click soundings. You are right though they are slower to update.  

I cant complain about a free resource but its almost 10:30 and we're still on 75. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Let's be clear about the threat of  where any warm noses are...those on the northwest fringe of this (hopeful) precip shield shouldn't have much, if any, threat of warm noses...back across north ga/western carolinas. Of course that could change if this shifts markedly northwest but right now it's quite cold aloft in these areas. 

Good point... As we all have said, upper levels are fine. This battle will be fought in the lowest layer for the posters out my way.

[snowlover91]

5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I cant complain about a free resource but its almost 10:30 and we're still on 75. 

Their page doesn't auto-update, you have to refresh it every so often to get the latest. I'm out to 81.

 

There is a warm nose that comes in hard and fast hours 81-84 at the 750-800mb level.

[griteater]

4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I cant complain about a free resource but its almost 10:30 and we're still on 75. 

You can just click on the map on pivotal weather and get the soundings as the maps come out.  Same with the College of Dupage models, but for some reason I was having trouble with the NAM soundings.  Tropical Tidbits has it too, but not for the NAM (no idea why)

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp_ptype&rh=2017120506&fh=78&r=conus&dpdt=

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

You can just click on the map on pivotal weather and get the soundings as the maps come out.  Same with the College of Dupage models, but for some reason I was having trouble with the NAM soundings.  Tropical Tidbits has it too, but not for the NAM (no idea why)

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp_ptype&rh=2017120506&fh=78&r=conus&dpdt=

That sounding has the entire column below freezing for MBY. Even the surface is at freezing.

[griteater]

No way the GFS will come in way amped, but maybe it takes a baby step

[BullCityWx]

We're safely isothermal in our sounding here but my biggest concern is the snow growth zone isnt saturated quite as deep as I'd like. 

[oconeexman]

Any flakes at all thos early woyld be great and a win..no matter if it coats the card or just mixes in followed by some real cold. At leadt we got something to track this early.

[Lookout]

14 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I cant complain about a free resource but its almost 10:30 and we're still on 75. 

Yeah it's painfully slow in fact. It's still worth the wait sometimes because it shows more levels than many  sites...like 975, 925, 875, 825, 775mb, and 725mb on the text soundings.   Makes it a lot easier to get a handle on those pesky warm noses. 

12 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Good point... As we all have said, upper levels are fine. This battle will be fought in the lowest layer for the posters out my way.

Yep,  Looking at soundings, cold air will not be much of a problem even if there is a northwest trend....unless it's a HUGE northwest trend.  Yes surface temps start off warm at the surface thursday afternoon/evening but the air aloft is cold...and wetbulb zero heights are very low...even well to the south. If precip starts overnight thursay/early friday...Combo of CAA/evap cooling will  bring surface temps down pretty quickly if there is enough precip to do so...despite no near by cold/dry source at the surface to the northeast.   The cold/dry air aloft is far enough sough that  there is even some wiggle room for us in north ga/sc too if there is a big nw trend. Pretty strange to be honest to be in this situation because 99/100 times the lowest 50mb won't cool enough/low level cold is blocked by the mountains in my neck of the woods. But we are lucky here in that there is quite a delay between the initial front and the precip which allows a lot of time for drier and colder air aloft to move in. 

My biggest fear is there just won't be enough or much precip. However, given the history with these types of events, one would think that it ends up wetter and further northwest than first advertised. Even if amounts are light though, i would think that at least many of us will see some token flakes. This time of year and this type of setup that's a big win where i'm at. 

[BullCityWx]

The sounding for the RDU airport at 84 is concerning because it isnt necessarily above freezing, you dont reach -15C until you get above the 500MB layer. It's hard to grow snowflakes like that. 

[strongwxnc]

10 minutes ago, griteater said:

You can just click on the map on pivotal weather and get the soundings as the maps come out.  Same with the College of Dupage models, but for some reason I was having trouble with the NAM soundings.  Tropical Tidbits has it too, but not for the NAM (no idea why)

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp_ptype&rh=2017120506&fh=78&r=conus&dpdt=

Any way to toggle text sounding on Pivotal?

 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

The sounding for the RDU airport at 84 is concerning because it isnt necessarily above freezing, you dont reach -15C until you get above the 500MB layer. It's hard to grow snowflakes like that. 

Snow growth will happen at -10 degrees C and colder.

[msuwx]

11 minutes ago, griteater said:

No way the GFS will come in way amped, but maybe it takes a baby step

It took a step at 6z for sure.

[griteater]

GFS out to 57 - it's bending the heights back to the SW more this run so it should be a little slower with the storm....but it may have trouble sharpening the base of the trough

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

1 minute ago, msuwx said:

It took a step at 6z for sure.

Hey man, good to see you posting. What's your take on the situation?

[mackerel_sky]

8 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Yeah it's painfully slow in fact. It's still worth the wait sometimes because it shows more levels than many  sites...like 975, 925, 875, 825, 775mb, and 725mb on the text soundings.   Makes it a lot easier to get a handle on those pesky warm noses. 

Yep,  Looking at soundings, cold air will not be much of a problem even if there is a northwest trend....unless it's a HUGE northwest trend.  Yes surface temps start off warm at the surface thursday afternoon/evening but the air aloft is cold...and wetbulb zero heights are very low...even well to the south. If precip starts overnight thursay/early friday...Combo of CAA/evap cooling will  bring surface temps down pretty quickly if there is enough precip to do so...despite no near by cold/dry source at the surface to the northeast.   The cold/dry air aloft is far enough sough that  there is even some wiggle room for us in north ga/sc too if there is a big nw trend. Pretty strange to be honest to be in this situation because 99/100 times the lowest 50mb won't cool enough/low level cold is blocked by the mountains in my neck of the woods. But we are lucky here in that there is quite a delay between the initial front and the precip which allows a lot of time for drier and colder air aloft to move in. 

My biggest fear is there just won't be enough or much precip. However, given the history with these types of events, one would think that it ends up wetter and further northwest than first advertised. Even if amounts are light though, i would think that at least many of us will see some token flakes. This time of year and this type of setup that's a big win where i'm at. 

For us in the Upstate and your area, temps are always a concern, and cold hardly ever gets here as quickly as modeled. I have very low expectations, and would be happy to see snow falling and hope to score a bigger deal , before the pattern breaks!

[griteater]

GFS out to 69, it looks like it's going to take a baby step toward more precip

[Wow]

The slower and stronger it is with the southern energy, the better chance for it to swing neutral, but not too much or else you'll scout out the cold air in place.  We won't have much of a HP in place for this one.