Stebo Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Harry Perry said: Ahh... thanks for clearing that up. Makes sense especially since the 00z NAM is dropping this to 993mb vs the mojority of the other guidance keeping it sub 1000mb-/+. It will probably verify 3-4mb weaker than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I'm expecting lots of pics from Michigan around this time tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I'm expecting lots of pics from Michigan around this time tomorrow night. Western Michigan, where I live, is gonna get plastered with the heaviest snow and highest totals! 6-8” with very heavy snow at times, and possible whiteout conditions from time to time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 18 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: I got a bit of hope for tomorrows clipper especially considering the last couple have been more south than forecast. I'm expecting 2-3 inches here Man it's a tough forecast for you. Models are still in disagreement on where the heaviest band will setup there. HRRRx nails you big time, while the 3km would leave you with little more than a DAB. RGEM is sort of somewhere in the middle. Good luck lol. EDIT: Actually the HRRRx is a little heavier just north of you after looking at it a little closer, but still certainly better than the 3km NAM. 2-3" is likely a pretty good call, but it won't take much to go either way on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 00z GFS is weaker and further north. Still stout for a clipper with isolated 6” amounts along I-96 across the state. Could see better ratios bumping those totals up a couple inches though in the defo band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Wondering what kind of headlines IWX is gonna issue later, noticed they bumped up the snowfall in the point forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Not sure why all Toledo mets are dropping their totals. 3-6” seems like a solid call, yet 2-4” and 1-3” is what everyone’s going with. I’d never underestimate such a dynamic system, I believe Tom Nizol was saying that the low itself would be moving at a clip of almost 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 hours ago, cmillzz said: Pretty unlucky for Chicago again barely missing out on the action. Will it be like last winter again? I still think we see some minor lake effect accumulations. But alas, freezing cold and not much to show for it. Those further east will know our pain when the cutters begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Winter storm warning for 5-8" with locally higher amounts possible. If you would have told me 3 days ago that I could have a foot of snow on the ground by late wed evening I would have asked where is it coming from!?? What a pleasant turn of events this week has been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 8 hours ago, Stebo said: It will probably verify 3-4mb weaker than that. It is already down to 995 and the 1-hr pressure falls shows that it has further to go. I think the low/ associated snow band may track slightly SW of the current consensus but an error of no more than 1 county or so at best. (Of course a stronger solution may result in more aggressive dry slotting. Dry slotting being both good and bad...good in the sense that more likely see some convective bursts on the fringes of it. Note comments in NWS DTW discussion about contributions from Lake Erie. This suggests that Ann Arbor might end up with some of the highest snow totals with its location near the glacial ridge, favorable up-slope winds, and also within the main swath of snow. Snow already has started here in Eastern Jackson County as of 6:15 AM.) Edit: 994 mb low as of the 6 am update. 06 Z NAM NEST didn't have it that deep till 19z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Interesting little battle shaping up in NW Ohio today. Saying 1-3” in Toledo, 2-4” in Ann Arbor while warnings and advisories say 3-5” and 5-8” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 47 minutes ago, MikeGold said: It is already down to 995 and the 1-hr pressure falls shows that it has further to go. I think the low/ associated snow band may track slightly SW of the current consensus but an error of no more than 1 county or so at best. (Of course a stronger solution may result in more aggressive dry slotting. Dry slotting being both good and bad...good in the sense that more likely see some convective bursts on the fringes of it. Note comments in NWS DTW discussion about contributions from Lake Erie. This suggests that Ann Arbor might end up with some of the highest snow totals with its location near the glacial ridge, favorable up-slope winds, and also within the main swath of snow. Snow already has started here in Eastern Jackson County as of 6:15 AM.) Edit: 994 mb low as of the 6 am update. 06 Z NAM NEST didn't have it that deep till 19z. Just looking at the radar real quick it looks to me the highest totals might end up about 30 miles or so north and east of there. To me, it looks like the storm is moving as fast east as it is south which might bring the dry slot all the way up to Ann Arbor, might even make it a little north of there even. Just my thoughts after looking at the radar this morning and seeing how its coming together. I might be wrong though so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 45 minutes ago, slow poke said: Just looking at the radar real quick it looks to me the highest totals might end up about 30 miles or so north and east of there. To me, it looks like the storm is moving as fast east as it is south which might bring the dry slot all the way up to Ann Arbor, might even make it a little north of there even. Just my thoughts after looking at the radar this morning and seeing how its coming together. I might be wrong though so we'll see. Yes..ie the consensus. Note that the consensus for the last storm was too far to the North. Also note that the latest HRRR clips Ann Arbor with 0.5 QPF amounts which could translate into 9" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Now MKX lowered the snow totals everywhere as they expect it to go north. Still got some hope,but it's fading rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Most of the snow shown on radar yet to reach the ground here in Northwest Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 24 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Most of the snow shown on radar yet to reach the ground here in Northwest Ohio. Dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Dry slot already working into my area. Crazy cut-off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Really coming down here in western Michigan! Picked up an inch and a half already and the bulk of the heavy snow won’t be until this afternoon! Gonna probably pick up 6-8” when it’s all said and done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Looks like MKX got their pants pulled down with this clipper. Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Guest said: Looks like MKX got their pants pulled down with this clipper. Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Same here haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Same here haha. It's not over. All short range guidance showed the significant dry-slotting during mid-day. AFD's had a handle on that as well, but it's supposed to fill-in just in time for evening commutes across SWMI, just too late for SWI. IWX even mentioned adding some more counties in the WWA if that part of the storm looks better at game-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Lmao! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Well it has started to snow here. Was coming down pretty good but now has tapered a bit. Pretty small flakes. Still looks to be a bust here though, they even took away the WWA. 2nd bust in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 It actually went southwest of Chicago, IL, not that far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It actually went southwest of Chicago, IL, not that far north HRRR low position looks pretty good to me. Based on area pressures/winds, it looks like the low will basically pass right over Chicago and southern Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: HRRR low position looks pretty good to me. Based on area pressures/winds, it looks like the low will basically pass right over Chicago and southern Lake Michigan. Maybe just west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Decent burst of flakes here despite temps pushing 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Temps have way under achieved so far here, we're at or just below freezing so maybe that weenie band coming through NW IN will spit some dust on us before the heat wave in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 hours ago, Guest said: Looks like MKX got their pants pulled down with this clipper. Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk So what does that mean? They forecasted too much snow? Too little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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