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December 8-16 Clipper Regime


Hoosier

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8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I am going with a solid 4-6" for metro Detroit tomorrow. Maybe on the low end north of 69 or near the border but this looks like a solid hitter. Could be a few spots higher if we maximize ratio potential.

I look forward to your prediction panning out and secretly hope that it'll bust low! 

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This is pretty much all I wanted. 4 inches of snow on the ground and cold temperatures. Getting a bit concerned though that it all washes away next week with a cutter but until then the cold temperatures should help freeze up the rivers and lower the lake temps. 

 

Also looks like Detroit is off to a fast start again compared to other non-LE snow cities (Toronto, Chicago, Milwaukee) 

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1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

Nothing worse than an afternoon snowstorm. Completely disrupts everything and makes for disastrous commutes

Yeah tomorrow's drive to work is not going to be fun, I wished this had held off until like 3pm, but it looks like it sped up a hair.

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3 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

NWS GRR showing a good hit for Lower Mich

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Does this map look right to you guys? The past two clippers have came in on the low end as far as amounts go at my place. Wondering what this one will be like. I thought I had read this latest one was creeping north some. Any thoughts from you guys in where the heaviest band might set up tomorrow?

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38 minutes ago, slow poke said:

Does this map look right to you guys? The past two clippers have came in on the low end as far as amounts go at my place. Wondering what this one will be like. I thought I had read this latest one was creeping north some. Any thoughts from you guys in where the heaviest band might set up tomorrow?

I would turn the band a bit more easterly in DTX's area but otherwise that looks right in both amounts and trajectory.

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7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

What a bitterly cold, blustery day. The snow drifted some, and the wind chills were brutal. 4" of snow on the ground and a winter storm watch in effect. Its as if we blinked and suddenly it went from Fall to mid Winter. And I love it!

It looks like we were right. I knew it wouldn’t be cold and dry here. Below normal temps in Michigan in December almost always find a way to snow.

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Dynamic little system tomorrow...good isentropic lift on the nose of a 50-60 knot low to mid-level jet and a really potent mid-level vort max.  There will definitely be a band that sees a few hours of heavy snow, and the lift appears to be centered near/in the DGZ in that band so I definitely see the potential for a narrow swath of warning criteria snow.  Will end up being more interesting than the ongoing LES in my immediate area. 

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Meanwhile, as I look at my bare ground... send that southwest!

I wasn’t even paying any attention to this latest system until today as I was just expecting it to stay SW toward your area but that sure changed. Now it looks like a top end clipper, although I’m still too far north to get the best snow. The 18z Nam nudged a hair north though giving me more snow. Maybe the 0z will continue the trend.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Just for reference at this point before the last clipper the NAMs were about 25 (3km) to 50 (12km) miles too far north with the main swath of snow.

That’s good to know. I was trying to remember - wasn’t it the NAM that always had a northern bias? I remember reading about it somewhere but can’t remember specifics and the reasoning behind it. 

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Just now, Harry Perry said:

That’s good to know. I was trying to remember - wasn’t it the NAM that always had a northern bias? I remember reading about it somewhere but can’t remember specifics and the reasoning behind it. 

Tends to be a bit stronger than actuality and in this case would favor a northern track.

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