HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 That was the 18Z, THIS is the 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: That was the 18Z, THIS is the 0Z The low is much stronger this run, but it is also a trend, run to run that Wednesday has been looking more dynamic and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Of course Detroit is going to jackpot. They are literally the snow magnet of this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Wow... certainly a trend. From 1-3... then 3-5 and now this. I havent had a chance to look, does this system have better upper support? Tapped some Pacific moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 7 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Euro has a really nice system at the end of next weekend. Our local met said at the end of his forecast tonight: "This weekend looks like quite a mess. Our models are at odds with each other. Some say rain/snow mix and other show a 'whopper' of a storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, blackrock said: Our local met said at the end of his forecast tonight: "This weekend looks like quite a mess. Our models are at odds with each other. Some say rain/snow mix and other show a 'whopper' of a storm." Yeah the Euro shows our first nearly full sub-forum significant synoptic snow of the season for Sunday. GFS is warm - would be 30’s and heavy rain, so really hope that solution doesn’t verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I wouldn't get too excited yet but the trends are favorable and dynamically this one looks to be much stronger. The system is just coming ashore north of Victoria BC right now and it is a very vigorous looking wave: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, cmillzz said: Of course Detroit is going to jackpot. They are literally the snow magnet of this subforum. More like the I 94 corridor from Kalamazoo to Ann Arbor/Detroit. They have been the synoptic jackpot zone for this decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Yeah the Euro shows our first nearly full sub-forum significant synoptic snow of the season for Sunday. GFS is warm - would be 30’s and heavy rain, so really hope that solution doesn’t verify. GRR NWS mentioned in their discussion that they were leaning towards the Euro. The GFS has been flip flopping back and forth...per usual. The longer range pattern is certainly looking more exciting and active than just a day or two ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 About 2.5" so far from this current clipper. We'll see if the radar begins filling in around midnight and beyond as depicted by the models. I'd say another 2" is possible for the GTA. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Nice to see a more potent clipper show up. There always seems to be one that ends up ramping up as the time approaches in a pattern like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 43 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: That was the 18Z, THIS is the 0Z Now lets just take that and move it about 40 miles to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I think this event stands to produce decent lake effect for the western shore of Lake Michigan. Nothing crazy, but certainly some accumulation. ECMWF was the first to pick up that signal. GFS and NAM followed suite today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 0Z GFS also amped up it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Harry Perry said: Yeah the Euro shows our first nearly full sub-forum significant synoptic snow of the season for Sunday. GFS is warm - would be 30’s and heavy rain, so really hope that solution doesn’t verify. Well, don't put a lot of hopes on this too far out, but the Euro snow (10:1 ratio) shows about 7" -9" for southern Michigan counties on Sunday-Monday. It's nice to know that I could actually post the image for that. I don't want to clutter this thread though. The Euro Ensemble means have 850mb temps right near freezing near Chicago and Detroit for Sunday-Monday. So, definitely something to watch in the next three days. Meanwhile more predictable clipper snow will roll through. (4" for Toledo seems like a fair guess.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 21 minutes ago, mimillman said: I think this event stands to produce decent lake effect for the western shore of Lake Michigan. Nothing crazy, but certainly some accumulation. ECMWF was the first to pick up that signal. GFS and NAM followed suite today. I agree... enhancement transitioning to pure lake effect. Parameters look decent and should allow for some accumulation even if transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 As I am up in the air a bit don't have a measurement, but just by looking on the roof of the building we have to be pushing 4" here maybe even a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Been freezing drizzle the last few hours so may cut into totals. Surface temp is 23. Can't remember seeing ZR with a surface temperature this low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Finished with 3.9" here. DTW had 3.8". The snow is caking to everything tonight and it is just gorgeous out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I agree... enhancement transitioning to pure lake effect. Parameters look decent and should allow for some accumulation even if transient. The trend has been for a more amped system and northeast track of the surface low (FWIW exception of extended range of 00z HRRR-x which is farther south). Should current trends come to fruition, the system snow would largely miss northern IL and NW IN. On the other hand, a stronger surface low would be more favorable for a solid albeit probably transient lake effect band starting in IL and then pivoting to NW IN Wednesday night. Parameters look quite favorable and full north-northeast fetch down the lake from 850 down to the surface means it could rip under the band.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 11 hours ago, cyclone77 said: ...Still waiting to hear if MLI got on the board for the season yet. Radar/obs were a bit iffy in that immediate area. Nope, just a T there. Futility lives on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 12 hours ago, cmillzz said: Of course Detroit is going to jackpot. They are literally the snow magnet of this subforum. Lol I think I have them beat as the snow magnet of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Storm total here in Toronto was 3.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 NWS Detroit considering a Winter Storm watch for tomorrow. Perhaps a winter storm watch or advisory necessary for Cleveland, NW Ohio, central Ohio and Grand Rapids. NDFD snow plot (54 hours) Part of NWS Detroit discussion (December 12) Quote The afternoon package will contain significant forecast changes for Wednesday. 00z trends continued through 06z and an improving conensus has emerged in today`s 12z guidance. Confidence is further improved by the fact that minor variations in wave interactions amongst the different guidance is resulting in relatively little change in the surface reflection as forcing remains tied to the much stronger northern wave. Several inches of snow is expected over most or all of the area beginning midday Wednesday and lasting into Wednesday night. 3 to 5 inches for all locations except the Thumb is expected. A very healthy fgen band will bring potential for 6 inches or more. The potential placement of this band is expected to be somewhere between M-59 and the MI border with IN/OH. A winter storm watch will be given strong consideration with the 4pm forecast issuance. Finally - LES wrapping in on the back side of the low will give potential for a few additional inches in portions of the Thumb making up for what is expected to be lighter daytime accumulations. A winter storm watch will likely be issued this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Sharp cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman69 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Sharp cut off.Dang!! It looks like we're going to miss out on the snow again.. Geez!! I'm really getting to dislike it where I am living now.. I need to move back up to Lake Geneva, WI Sent from my LGL82VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 snow reports from Dec 11th. There may have been roughly 2" in NW Ohio areas such as Hillsdale MI and Angola IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Got 4.2" from the clipper last night based on my measurement at 7:00am this morning before leaving to the office. YYZ recorded around 4.1" as well. Not bad for the first snowfall of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 to 4.5" was a very common number over the heart of metro Detroit with yesterday's clipper. Getting excited for tomorrows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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