Hoosier Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 Kind of strange to see the 3 km/12 km NAM this far apart on placement of the next clipper. Usually they will at least agree on the same general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Kept grinding sugar all day. Got 1.6" imby and 1.5" at DTW. Very fine flakes. Looks very scenic with all the Christmas decor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Got 2" of snow now. Very unexpected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman69 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Hehe I wasn't aware Christmas changed to December 9th this year . Plenty of time for white Christmas in N IL. Trough will be relaxing.It hasn't just I don't really see anything major coming our way Sent from my LGL82VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 21 minutes ago, Snowman69 said: It hasn't just I don't really see anything major coming our way Sent from my LGL82VL using Tapatalk I think we'll have a better idea about a week from now about the chances of a white Christmas (at least 1" of snow on the ground on the morning of the 25th). Whatever snow falls in the next several days looks threatened to get wiped out in our areas, so we may be counting on a 5-7 day window up to the 25th to get something in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 Nice frontogenesis signal on the 00z NAM for the Monday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1.6" Total for the day with 1.2" still on the ground. if we can catch the tail of that firehose off of the Lake as it swings east, I might be able to make 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Nice frontogenesis signal on the 00z NAM for the Monday system. The parent wave for the Monday clipper is coming in off the Pacific tonight into BC so it is starting with better moisture to work with. Looks like the warm advection wing could produce some light accums late tomorrow night into Monday morning and then mid-level fgen could drive more appreciable accums during the afternoon. It's obviously TBD where that banding sets up assuming the NAMs have a decent handle on this system. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Nice frontogenesis signal on the 00z NAM for the Monday system. 17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The parent wave for the Monday clipper is coming in off the Pacific tonight into BC so it is starting with better moisture to work with. Looks like the warm advection wing could produce some light accums late tomorrow night into Monday morning and then mid-level fgen could drive more appreciable accums during the afternoon. It's obviously TBD where that banding sets up assuming the NAMs have a decent handle on this system. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk While the 00Z GFS is a complete whiff to the North...with both of you on the veeeery southern edge of precip. It seems the models are confused on whether to focus on a Low Pressure over Northern Michigan or a low moving much farther south. Transfer of energy confusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Its beginning to look a lot like Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Looks like most of the subforum will see it's annual pre-christmas meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jonger said: Looks like most of the subforum will see it's annual pre-christmas meltdown. Maybe literally for those who actually have some snow on the ground lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jonger said: Looks like most of the subforum will see it's annual pre-christmas meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Of the 1.7" that fell here, only about .7" of that was pure clipper snow. I know that this has been discussed ad nauseum, but it's kind of hard to differentiate between synoptic, lake enhanced, and pure LES, but I try to at least estimate and keep track. Tomorrow/tomorrow night's clipper looks to be almost a whiff down here, but I should once again score some more nickle/dime LES on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 CMC Model likes the southern great lakes with respects to snow Monday/Monday night. I know it's the Canadian, but the S/W is coming from Canada!! So we've got that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 In general, the hi-res models seem to be a bit farther south with tomorrow's system. The most extreme example looks to be the NMM, but for my sake it's unfortunately an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: In general, the hi-res models seem to be a bit farther south with tomorrow's system. The most extreme example looks to be the NMM, but for my sake it's unfortunately an outlier. Interesting... clipper comes trucking down north central Minnesota, through all of Wisconsin and then stops... turns the left turn signal on - transfers energy to the other side of the WI/IL state line - turns due East - shifts into 2nd gear and plows down I-80/6 with enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 I like that some of the hires models are further south. On the op models I'm fine but have no room for northern jogs, so definitely glad to see hi res south. Although that is too south lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 The HRRRx looks to be on the southern end as well, but not as far south as the NMM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Received less than an inch from the 'first' clipper so far but interestingly enough it really hasn't stopped snowing since about Saturday midday. Near continuous flakes have made for a good snow covering, and it doesn't look to let up until the next larger disturbance passes. Almost as though the two systems have really just morphed into one longer, drawn out snow event. Thinking we have a shot at 3" by Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 12k NAM is being fairly aggressive with the third clipper rolling through the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon/night. Like the one over the weekend and the second progged for tomorrow, it once again says NO to IL/IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 First/last call for here/QC for tomorrow's clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Looking to be the jackpot zone here for Mondays clipper. More of the pic three winner, rather than the powerball though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Looks like we'll be good for 3-4" tonight across most of southern ON. More of a hybrid system for us in the eastern sub as the clipper phases with the southern stream and strengthens on its way east. Good initial conditions with a base of about an inch to start, and temps will remain around 23F throughout the event. Could maybe make a run at 5" if all goes well and some extra moisture from the lake comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Snowing so pretty outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Snowing so pretty outside! Came at a good time also, started after rush hour and ended before the rush hour home. I wonder how the rest of the forcast will play out tonight with this clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 NWS Detroit just went with a Advisory from 7:00 tonight till 2:00am, looks like this thing is trending south to me, Detroit might be in the sweet spot for snow from this one tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Winter weather advisory in place. Got 0.8" with round 1 This morning. Depth on ground about 1.5-2. Round 2 should drop several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 4 hours ago, harrisale said: Looks like we'll be good for 3-4" tonight across most of southern ON. More of a hybrid system for us in the eastern sub as the clipper phases with the southern stream and strengthens on its way east. Good initial conditions with a base of about an inch to start, and temps will remain around 23F throughout the event. Could maybe make a run at 5" if all goes well and some extra moisture from the lake comes into play. A little concerned about potential low-level dry air that may hinder amounts. Moisture is abundant, however, the dry air may keep us closer to 2-3" IMO. Lets see! The colder temperatures may allow for better snow ratios and potential lake enhancement as you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Euro has a really nice system at the end of next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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