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December 8-16 Clipper Regime


Hoosier

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21 minutes ago, Snowman69 said:

It hasn't just I don't really see anything major coming our way

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I think we'll have a better idea about a week from now about the chances of a white Christmas (at least 1" of snow on the ground on the morning of the 25th). Whatever snow falls in the next several days looks threatened to get wiped out in our areas, so we may be counting on a 5-7 day window up to the 25th to get something in time.

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Nice frontogenesis signal on the 00z NAM for the Monday system.

 

The parent wave for the Monday clipper is coming in off the Pacific tonight into BC so it is starting with better moisture to work with. Looks like the warm advection wing could produce some light accums late tomorrow night into Monday morning and then mid-level fgen could drive more appreciable accums during the afternoon. It's obviously TBD where that banding sets up assuming the NAMs have a decent handle on this system.

 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Nice frontogenesis signal on the 00z NAM for the Monday system.

 

17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The parent wave for the Monday clipper is coming in off the Pacific tonight into BC so it is starting with better moisture to work with. Looks like the warm advection wing could produce some light accums late tomorrow night into Monday morning and then mid-level fgen could drive more appreciable accums during the afternoon. It's obviously TBD where that banding sets up assuming the NAMs have a decent handle on this system.

 

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While the 00Z GFS is a complete whiff to the North...with both of you on the veeeery southern edge of precip. It seems the models are confused on whether to focus on a Low Pressure over Northern Michigan or a low moving much farther south. Transfer of energy confusion?

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Of the 1.7" that fell here, only about .7" of that was pure clipper snow. I know that this has been discussed ad nauseum, but it's kind of hard to differentiate between synoptic, lake enhanced, and pure LES, but I try to at least estimate and keep track.

Tomorrow/tomorrow night's clipper looks to be almost a whiff down here, but I should once again score some more nickle/dime LES on the backside.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

In general, the hi-res models seem to be a bit farther south with tomorrow's system. The most extreme example looks to be the NMM, but for my sake it's unfortunately an outlier.

wrf-nmm_asnow_ncus_48.thumb.png.8c0edea428ff8aef512e3233471ddcbe.png

Interesting... clipper comes trucking down north central Minnesota, through all of Wisconsin and then stops... turns the left turn signal on - transfers energy to the other side of the WI/IL state line - turns due East - shifts into 2nd gear and plows down I-80/6 with enhancement. 

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Received less than an inch from the 'first' clipper so far but interestingly enough it really hasn't stopped snowing since about Saturday midday. Near continuous flakes have made for a good snow covering, and it doesn't look to let up until the next larger disturbance passes. Almost as though the two systems have really just morphed into one longer, drawn out snow event. Thinking we have a shot at 3" by Tuesday night. 

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Looks like we'll be good for 3-4" tonight across most of southern ON. 

More of a hybrid system for us in the eastern sub as the clipper phases with the southern stream and strengthens on its way east. 

Good initial conditions with a base of about an inch to start, and temps will remain around 23F throughout the event. 

Could maybe make a run at 5" if all goes well and some extra moisture from the lake comes into play. 

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4 hours ago, harrisale said:

Looks like we'll be good for 3-4" tonight across most of southern ON. 

More of a hybrid system for us in the eastern sub as the clipper phases with the southern stream and strengthens on its way east. 

Good initial conditions with a base of about an inch to start, and temps will remain around 23F throughout the event. 

Could maybe make a run at 5" if all goes well and some extra moisture from the lake comes into play. 

A little concerned about potential low-level dry air that may hinder amounts. Moisture is abundant, however, the dry air may keep us closer to 2-3" IMO. Lets see! The colder temperatures may allow for better snow ratios and potential lake enhancement as you mentioned. 

 

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