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December 8-16 Clipper Regime


Hoosier

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7 minutes ago, Baum said:

What's really sad is I have to follow local Mets and Twitter to determine what's happening on our first potential snow of the season in the Chicago area.....get nadda here. Sad!

 

Honestly there's not much to this one... it's a medium/high confidence 1-2" type deal for most of the Chicago area, with some chance of higher amounts near the lake (especially across the border in IN).  Nice little warmup for the season.

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Although Gino is pessimistic

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
912 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.UPDATE...
912 PM CST

Going forecast for tonight on target and no changes planned.

Looking ahead to tomorrow night, cursory glance at 00z NAM coming
in would generally tend to support the trend in guidance today
which has been toward less QPF. Conceptually, the track of the sfc
low with this clipper solidly north of our CWA certainly wouldn`t
favor much in the way of accumulating snow in the warm sector.
Clipper warm sectors tend to be dominated moire by virga and
certainly NAM forecast soundings support that notion. Given the
strong/sharp upper trough, hard to totally discount the idea of
some accumulating snow in our area tomorrow evening, but suspect
amounts could end up solidly lower than going forecast. Not
planning any changes to tomorrow night`s forecast, but will brief
oncoming overnight shift about the concerns and let them get a
look at the full suite of 00z guidance. Even if snowfall is light
and only amounts to a couple/few tenths of an inch, the impacts on
roads/travel could still be quite significant. Some of the highest
impact snowfalls on travel/road conditions are the <1" snowfalls.

- Izzi

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6 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like we can expect around a half inch or so tomorrow night.  Looking forward to the first accums of the season.  :snowing:

May have to catch the next clipper.  Tonight's 00z runs look weaker, and further northeast with things.  May not get anything measurable after all.  Hopefully we can get some more mood flakes at least.

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Believe it or not that snowblower I bought last December 20 still has the price tag on it. Stunning. LOT,beyond Izzi,giving no hint of reduced accumulations given recent guidance. I get its a minimal event, but based on recent past history this thing looked like a whopper.:santa: Also, nice to get off the schneid.B)

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18 minutes ago, Baum said:

Believe it or not that snowblower I bought last December 20 still has the price tag on it. Stunning. LOT,beyond Izzi,giving no hint of reduced accumulations given recent guidance. I get its a minimal event, but based on recent past history this thing looked like a whopper.:santa: Also, nice to get off the schneid.B)

Didn' Chicago get like 6-9" with the March storm? I like to blow the bigger snows but shovel the rest lol.

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5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Didn' Chicago get like 6-9" with the March storm? I like to blow the bigger snows but shovel the rest lol.

7.7" at ORD from the 12th-14th.  

That morning of the 14th was wild around here when the lake band moved in.  That stuff would've stuck on the pavement at noon in July.

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Some of the models are showing a decent little plume off of Lake Michigan all the way down into north central IN. over the next 48 hours so if it can set up over mby and we can get 3 inches to stick that'll be about half of what I measured all last winter :(.  Even moisture starved clippers can surprise a little.

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I am not too impressed with this first clipper, I certainly don't see 1-3", right now at the surface it is too dry too 18 degree dew point depression is not what you want going into a snowfall. This was my concern with these clippers, too dry of a regime in place.

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1 hour ago, Spartman said:

NWS and the local mets' forecasts are still going as strong as possible, but TWC just stuck a fork on any snow in associated with tomorrow's clipper.

TWC used to be awesome in the 90s. Then they became obsessed with ratings and silly things to attract the non-weather geeks. I can't even watch it for longer than a minute. Our local NWS offices are much more reliable and not obnoxious. Stick with those goes.

 

Any Chicago folks pick up a good covering of snow with that band that came through?

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

I am not too impressed with this first clipper, I certainly don't see 1-3", right now at the surface it is too dry too 18 degree dew point depression is not what you want going into a snowfall. This was my concern with these clippers, too dry of a regime in place.

Agreed, HRRR and NAM NEST have both dropped snow totals for SE MI

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Yeah the HRRR is painting less than an inch around here. Would be similar to Wednesday’s non-event. 

 

But hey... north Atlanta will probably have close to a foot by tomorrow morning! You know it’s going to be an interesting season when the southern states get a blockbuster before the northern states even get a synoptic flake! 

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