Hoosier Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 I'm thinking around 2" here from this clipper. Maybe 3" if I'm lucky. The wild card is the lake plume but right now it looks too transient this far west to really add much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Looks like we can expect around a half inch or so tomorrow night. Looking forward to the first accums of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 hours ago, (((Will))) said: What are some good radars from good storms in your area? You talking LES or anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Maybe the 2010's lack of clippers caught Trumps eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 31 minutes ago, Jonger said: Maybe the 2010's lack of clippers caught Trumps eye. Alaska data isn't just about clippers... It is the lead location for any energy coming into the USA as there are RAOB sites into the Aleutians... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 What's really sad is I have to follow local Mets and Twitter to determine what's happening on our first potential snow of the season in the Chicago area.....get nadda here. Sad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Baum said: What's really sad is I have to follow local Mets and Twitter to determine what's happening on our first potential snow of the season in the Chicago area.....get nadda here. Sad! Honestly there's not much to this one... it's a medium/high confidence 1-2" type deal for most of the Chicago area, with some chance of higher amounts near the lake (especially across the border in IN). Nice little warmup for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 Although Gino is pessimistic Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 912 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 .UPDATE... 912 PM CST Going forecast for tonight on target and no changes planned. Looking ahead to tomorrow night, cursory glance at 00z NAM coming in would generally tend to support the trend in guidance today which has been toward less QPF. Conceptually, the track of the sfc low with this clipper solidly north of our CWA certainly wouldn`t favor much in the way of accumulating snow in the warm sector. Clipper warm sectors tend to be dominated moire by virga and certainly NAM forecast soundings support that notion. Given the strong/sharp upper trough, hard to totally discount the idea of some accumulating snow in our area tomorrow evening, but suspect amounts could end up solidly lower than going forecast. Not planning any changes to tomorrow night`s forecast, but will brief oncoming overnight shift about the concerns and let them get a look at the full suite of 00z guidance. Even if snowfall is light and only amounts to a couple/few tenths of an inch, the impacts on roads/travel could still be quite significant. Some of the highest impact snowfalls on travel/road conditions are the <1" snowfalls. - Izzi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like we can expect around a half inch or so tomorrow night. Looking forward to the first accums of the season. May have to catch the next clipper. Tonight's 00z runs look weaker, and further northeast with things. May not get anything measurable after all. Hopefully we can get some more mood flakes at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Clipper tomorrow has really fizzled, expecting hopefully an inch here, while Monday's looks more potent depending on track. The model circus has begun...which means winter is here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Believe it or not that snowblower I bought last December 20 still has the price tag on it. Stunning. LOT,beyond Izzi,giving no hint of reduced accumulations given recent guidance. I get its a minimal event, but based on recent past history this thing looked like a whopper. Also, nice to get off the schneid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, Baum said: Believe it or not that snowblower I bought last December 20 still has the price tag on it. Stunning. LOT,beyond Izzi,giving no hint of reduced accumulations given recent guidance. I get its a minimal event, but based on recent past history this thing looked like a whopper. Also, nice to get off the schneid. Didn' Chicago get like 6-9" with the March storm? I like to blow the bigger snows but shovel the rest lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Pavement was essentially wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Off topic a bit. But today I'm purchasing a new grill. Perhaps this will change the negative karma brought on by the snowblower purchase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Baum this winter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Didn' Chicago get like 6-9" with the March storm? I like to blow the bigger snows but shovel the rest lol. 7.7" at ORD from the 12th-14th. That morning of the 14th was wild around here when the lake band moved in. That stuff would've stuck on the pavement at noon in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 18Z GFS is looking a good amount better for the Monday night clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Some of the models are showing a decent little plume off of Lake Michigan all the way down into north central IN. over the next 48 hours so if it can set up over mby and we can get 3 inches to stick that'll be about half of what I measured all last winter . Even moisture starved clippers can surprise a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 First/last call for here 0.2-0.6". For QC T-0.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 NWS and the local mets' forecasts are still going as strong as possible, but TWC just stuck a fork on any snow in associated with tomorrow's clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Clipper for early next week looks better on the 0z NAM. Farther south and a little more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Who the heck listens to the Weather Channel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 41 minutes ago, Baum said: Who the heck listens to the Weather Channel? I did... in the 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I am not too impressed with this first clipper, I certainly don't see 1-3", right now at the surface it is too dry too 18 degree dew point depression is not what you want going into a snowfall. This was my concern with these clippers, too dry of a regime in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 This first clipper has definitely lost its luster. Mondays has beefed up. But who knows. I have seen many clippers overperform. And i fully expect to see that this winter. Tomorrow, however, will not be one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Spartman said: NWS and the local mets' forecasts are still going as strong as possible, but TWC just stuck a fork on any snow in associated with tomorrow's clipper. TWC used to be awesome in the 90s. Then they became obsessed with ratings and silly things to attract the non-weather geeks. I can't even watch it for longer than a minute. Our local NWS offices are much more reliable and not obnoxious. Stick with those goes. Any Chicago folks pick up a good covering of snow with that band that came through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Spartman said: NWS and the local mets' forecasts are still going as strong as possible, but TWC just stuck a fork on any snow in associated with tomorrow's clipper. Inch or less while the NWS is at 2-4” - someone is going to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomp2mp Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Stebo said: I am not too impressed with this first clipper, I certainly don't see 1-3", right now at the surface it is too dry too 18 degree dew point depression is not what you want going into a snowfall. This was my concern with these clippers, too dry of a regime in place. Agreed, HRRR and NAM NEST have both dropped snow totals for SE MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Yeah the HRRR is painting less than an inch around here. Would be similar to Wednesday’s non-event. But hey... north Atlanta will probably have close to a foot by tomorrow morning! You know it’s going to be an interesting season when the southern states get a blockbuster before the northern states even get a synoptic flake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Looks like tonight's clipper will result in a 10-20 minute period of light snow. The next few clippers should be even further northeast, so it looks like we'll be taking the T for the season into the last half of December lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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