Hoosier Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Since it's the first shot at real measurable snow for many areas outside of the Lakes, why not. Looks like there will be at least 2-3 systems during this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Last night's Euro was the most robust I've seen it yet in showing a clipper train. Wouldn't take much for one of them to become more significant as we get closer. Hope trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 GEM was champ with clippers 4 yrs ago, but did it get an upgrade or is that yet to come? Be interesting to see how it does with this pattern. Euro usually late to the Clipper party so I've been waiting for it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 46 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Last night's Euro was the most robust I've seen it yet in showing a clipper train. Wouldn't take much for one of them to become more significant as we get closer. Hope trends continue. I still think it's dicey to get a more sig clipper since both the GFS and CMC show only the one on Friday to have any potential of being decent, with all others being relatively weak. Although it is clippers, which can go either way in an instant, but I'm not terribly optimistic. However I hope that I am pleasantly surprised by some of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Your going to get buried.B)Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Pattern looks to be unsettled but with no biggies. Hopefully everyone gets some snow. Clipper patterns are always terrible with details until it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, (((Will))) said: It's raining. lol Calumet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 29 minutes ago, Hoosier said: lol Calumet He's right + fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Clipper this weekend looks like a good 1-3 for most people (not counting the LES) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Clipper this weekend looks like a good 1-3 for most people (not counting the LES) This has some decent lift, though fairly transient. I would agree with that general range of amounts at this point. Let's hope for some better trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This has some decent lift, though fairly transient. I would agree with that general range of amounts at this point. Let's hope for some better trends. I think that's an uptick from prior GFS runs, at least for inland SMI areas. Good trends, but it's still a global and not fully capable with LES parameters. Especially wrt moisture off the lakes themselves (compare GRR's map with 12-18" in NMI just for next 2 days for example). Eagerly awaiting till we get into short-ranger models. Expecting positive things from them. Also, a Clipper could come in with better overall moisture. It's not like it's the dead of late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Looks like the clipper I had been counting on to deliver an inch or two to get on the board looks to almost certainly whiff to the north and east. Leaving us high and dry. Unfortunate eastward trend with the whole pattern though, so kind of expected it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Fairly vigorous surface low on the NAM. Would be a bit breezy to accompany the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Fairly vigorous surface low on the NAM. Would be a bit breezy to accompany the snow. Appears to be the farthest north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Clipper for Saturday has beefed up. Starting to get excited for our first blanket of snow since mid-late March. Might see some good squalls tmrw first. Have already had plenty of flurries, I'm ready to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Clipper for Saturday has beefed up. Starting to get excited for our first blanket of snow since mid-late March. Might see some good squalls tmrw first. Have already had plenty of flurries, I'm ready to shovel. My yard is a mess with leaves. Want to get it cleaned up before the weekend snow but I guess I'll be outside in the dark lol NAM and GFS are at odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Not sure how accurate these graphics are yet. Only been checking them out for a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoachLB said: Not sure how accurate these graphics are yet. Only been checking them out for a couple weeks. It's on qpf. If the euro qpf ends up correct than that snow is all too low. Don't know what the ratios will be like, and you never want to go too crazy with them ahead of time, but no way will they be 10-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: It's on qpf. If the euro qpf ends up correct than that snow is all too low. Don't know what the ratios will be like, and you never want to go too crazy with them ahead of time, but no way will they be 10-1. DGZ depth looks decent but not too extreme. I'd go better than 10:1 but not something too crazy. Exception could be near the lakes but I'm mainly talking about the system snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman69 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 DGZ depth looks decent but not too extreme. I'd go better than 10:1 but not something too crazy. Exception could be near the lakes but I'm mainly talking about the system snows.I live in Fulton Illinois, about 3 hours from Chicago. I am more closer to Davenport, Iowa. I am hoping and praying for snow. Sent from my LGL82VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Interesting point from New England forum, about no longer having any 12z soundings from Alaska, due to NOAA budget cuts. In other words, focus on 00z runs instead, in situations where there are waves or vorts or other energy in and around Alaska. Not sure if it will make much of a difference for these upcoming clippers...but could be useful to know for future reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Although GOES-16 is a game changer, I'm scratching my head at spending a gazillbillion dollars (or maybe it's $10.83 billion) on the satellite, then cutting an important forecasting tool that costs a tiny fraction of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Interesting point from New England forum, about no longer having any 12z soundings from Alaska, due to NOAA budget cuts. In other words, focus on 00z runs instead, in situations where there are waves or vorts or other energy in and around Alaska. Not sure if it will make much of a difference for these upcoming clippers...but could be useful to know for future reference. Degradation of weather data continues, it is going to take something catastrophic to change the minds of idiots in Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Although GOES-16 is a game changer, I'm scratching my head at spending a gazillbillion dollars (or maybe it's $10.83 billion) on the satellite, then cutting an important forecasting tool that costs a tiny fraction of that. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 37 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Interesting point from New England forum, about no longer having any 12z soundings from Alaska, due to NOAA budget cuts. In other words, focus on 00z runs instead, in situations where there are waves or vorts or other energy in and around Alaska. Not sure if it will make much of a difference for these upcoming clippers...but could be useful to know for future reference. Wow. I didn't even know that. I guess they want to set forecasting back a few decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 It's the most wonderful time of the year...any snow is welcome! Hopefully the 00z runs are in general agreement for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 27 minutes ago, Stebo said: Degradation of weather data continues, it is going to take something catastrophic to change the minds of idiots in Washington. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Degradation of weather data continues, it is going to take something catastrophic to change the minds of idiots in Washington. Yikes. Talk about one step forward, two steps back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 20 hours ago, Stebo said: Degradation of weather data continues, it is going to take something catastrophic to change the minds of idiots in Washington. This is such a bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Degradation of the clipper regime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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