aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: If there's no precip, it goes all the way to 40. The neg tilt works, but big storms need an arctic High. It will probably snow. It's snowing in Minneapolis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: The weeklies imply that this winter's base state is a -ao/-epo/+pna. Makes sense but weeklies can flip immediatey following an eps flip. The good thing right now is we don't have to look way down the line praying for a pattern change. We get to enjoy a winter type pattern pretty much right now and also enjoy the probability that it isn't going away anytime soon. My guess is the first relaxation is only going to be the pna. We can work with a -pna once we get into late Dec. I'd have to go back and sift through data but I have a hunch that a -ao/-pna still delivers snowfall sometimes but the risk of a mixed event goes up. Mixed events are pretty normal ways we get snow so no big deal there. No signs of the ao going positive is probably the biggest thing we have going for us. We're going to be in good shape if the -ao holds for another couple weeks. About dam time it cooperates too. Lol We know things can flip but this feels like something else. I don't like to flip around too quickly but I acknowledged all November that I saw the positive signs. Things were breaking out way. From signs we would get a -AO to the PDO settling into a more neutral and less hostile look and the Nina remaining east based and weak. Things were cooperating. I am now feeling much better about our chances this year. If we look at the really awful Nina years they didn't start out this way. Yes some devembers like this flip but usually if we get a sustained -AO like this early it tends to occur again at least some portion of the winter. The good news is the truly dreadful analogs are quickly falling off and some of the better outliers seem more possible right now. Of course luck plays a part. Even if we get a -AO winter we will still need to score when we get shots. But it feels like we will have shots this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 00z GFS looks to be east of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, IUsedToHateCold said: 00z GFS looks to be east of 18z Yeah, no luck for that wave. Let's see how the northern stream vorts turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Holy closed 700mb low Batman! Headed South of the region. That's interesting for overnight Sat into Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 This would be really sweet right here. Upside potential for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 700mb is damn impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Let’s get Friday out of the way to allow Sunday to dig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: 00z GFS looks to be east of 18z There is only one frame that is true for at hour 84. Overall, those two runs look consistent to me for Friday and Saturday, but I expect the chaos to return tomorrow at this time! For anyone who doesn't know, chaos is a statistical phenomena that is commonly referred to in meteorology. To clarify, I'm not implying the sky is falling when I say chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 CMC for potential weekend system....500mb :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Models look intriguing aloft....very energetic, signs of phasing trying to occur yet surface on most guidance look anemic. Why is that? Even without a full phased closed system those maps should imply more surface reflection, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 CMC brings the low 20s down to the gulf coast and central FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Time to stay up for euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Time to stay up for euro. we've got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark out, and we're wearing sunglasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Time to stay up for euro. Who are you? And its nice that it comes out in a lil over an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 You gotta love those cyclonic vorticity maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 0z gfs cooked up like 6 different ways to snow. Don't remember the last time I saw an op have that many chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 0z gfs cooked up like 6 different ways to snow. Don't remember the last time I saw an op have that many chances. And given how things go around here sometimes, we may need all 6 of those ways, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Impressive how close the coastal low is to the next trough diving out of Canada (which could be difficult to verify). Maybe it will time right to tilt the offshore low so negative to ramp up and move inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Euro looks tasty a week from nowSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 So Day 8 we have a 998 SLP around RIC... 850s are cold enough in our area... Day 9 SLP is in NE Canada at 959mb and 850s are arctic blast like.... interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 So Day 8 we have a 998 SLP around RIC... 850s are cold enough in our area... Day 9 SLP is in NE Canada at 959mb and 850s are arctic blast like.... interesting...Snow map looks weak though Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Day 10 extrapolated looks like it could be interesting with the development of SLP in N TX... at least I think so also looking at h5 at 240 on the 00z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Day 10 extrapolated looks like it could be interesting with the development of SLP in N TX... at least I think so also looking at h5 at 240 on the 00z EURODay 8 snow problem is that it's a warm rain lolSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I think we need 10s and 20s to get into the real snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 44 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro looks tasty a week from now Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Euro looked tasty and delicious 12 hours ago for many this weekend, now indigestion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 6z is the anti-snow run. Clipper looks like a big steaming pile of dung. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 6z is the anti-snow run. Clipper looks like a big steaming pile of dung. Yup, Cold and dry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I was cycling through the entire run just to see if there’s any snow whatsoever and that song tragedy came on by The Bee Gees. That gave me a chuckle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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