mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: was editing as i knew da smart guys were lurking..... lol I'm an exception to most lawyers. I can do more math than just figure a third of any number! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Yep, a cold first half of winter looks about as likely as I've ever seen it. Now we pray for the snow. Gefs is keeping me interested in Sunday. Wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a cold little event. Won't know one way or the other for a few days. The trend to dig the vort into the TN valley looks pretty good. Need to pop a surface low east of the apps and we're in business. I could care less about gefs snow panels. They have proven practically useless as a tool to gauge potential. You and i already know what kind of potential we have. Just have to let the chips fall and hope something breaks our way in the med-short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: I'm an exception to most lawyers. I can do more than just figure a third of any number! You’re a lawyer? Jeez I thought only unemployed gamers and the socially challenged psychopaths were weather addicts. Makes me feel better about my weather addiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You’re a lawyer? Jeez I thought only unemployed gamers and the socially challenged psychopaths were weather addicts. Makes me feel better about my weather addiction. You seeing this wxwatcher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You’re a lawyer? Jeez I thought only unemployed gamers and the socially challenged psychopaths were weather addicts. Makes me feel better about my weather addiction. I'm a school administrator We're all addicted to weather in a different way lol To make it back about weather... I am thinking that the 00z GFS will sharpen the trough a bit more and bring the system back a bit more to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: I'm a school administrator We're all addicted to weather in a different way lol To make it back about weather... I am thinking that the 00z GFS will sharpen the trough a bit more and bring the system back a bit more to the NW Yes I believe that will happen as well. Plan to stay awake for it. I was just kidding about my last post. I’m an aerospace engineer who builds satellites for an intelligence agency as well as a socially challenged psychopath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You’re a lawyer? Jeez I thought only unemployed gamers and the socially challenged psychopaths were weather addicts. Makes me feel better about my weather addiction. Ya forgot about crazy musicians! Extreme weather is awesomely inspiring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya forgot about crazy musicians! Extreme weather is awesomely inspiring! I've been playing the guitar since 1973. The summer after the 3-month trauma called the winter of 72/73 in Baltimore. And people wonder why I prefer playing blues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I just want some prolonged subfreezing to test out the new triple panes. Hope that won't be delayed another 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The models have sucked with the strength of the WAR the last several winters and continually strengthened it and moved systems west inside 4-5 days. I would not be surprised at all if this still ends up being an event Could be a big event if not for such warm temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Sparky said: I just want some prolonged subfreezing to test out the new triple panes. Hope that won't be delayed another 10 days. Triple panes? You're not in the Northern District. You only needed a 27 U factor if you were. Triples are usually 19-22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Triple panes? You're not in the Northern District. You only needed a 27 U factor. Triples are usually 19-22. I got triples, my man. U factor <20 and one patio door with the krypton. It gets cold in these hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Sparky said: I got triples, my man. U factor <20 and one patio door with the krypton. It gets cold in these hills. Air infultration is the key up in those hills. I replaced mine myself and went with a 28. I've tweaked them and they're tight...really tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 18z NAVGEM ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 18z NAVGEM ftw! Just one time...why can't it be right...one freakin time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 18z NAVGEM ftw! Looks pretty impressive. 24+ hours of precip, but that's all it shows. I wish it showed snow/precip totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 45 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Could be a big event if not for such warm temps. Temps aren't way too warm. Low/mid 30s at nighttime might be a stretch, but I'm assuming it would get colder depending on if we get heavier precip or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 It's official folks, we're getting a big event on Friday. I've got a big test and the potential snow event was put there to distract me from studying. If I remember correctly I had midterms on the day of the Blizzard of 2016, which ended up getting cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Just one time...why can't it be right...one freakin time You want more rain? Thickness level over us is around 5500+. No way we'd see snow with thickness levels that high. Our max potential out of this is likely .25-.5 qpf. Anything more and we have temp issues, which I guess are the kind of problems we're hoping for at this rate come to think of it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: It's official folks, we're getting a big event on Friday. I've got a big test and the potential snow event was put there to distract me from studying. If I remember correctly I had midterms on the day of the Blizzard of 2017, which ended up getting cancelled. 2016 maybe. Blizzard of 2017 was cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, eurojosh said: 2016 maybe. Blizzard of 2017 was cold rain. Whoops, you're right. I corrected it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Well at least the 84hr NAM is trending in the right direction, he says, for the first time this season, before being leaped on by a chorus of long-range-nam-bashing realists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I'm not quite sure what the NAM is doing, but it ain't snowing on us, just eastern shore. Sorta looks like it's keying on an earlier vort. In any event, I read in the NE forum the NAM is being retired next year. What a failed experiment that was. Eta was better imho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: I'm not quite sure what the NAM is doing, but it ain't snowing on us, just eastern shore. Sorta looks like it's keying on an earlier vort. In any event, I read in the NE forum the NAM is being retired next year. What a failed experiment that was. Eta was better imho.. Really? Then what are we gonna call it when a model goes crazy short range? Nothing sounds better than saying "We got NAM'ed" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Really? Then what are we gonna call it when a model goes crazy short range? Nothing sounds better than saying "We got NAM'ed" We can use it when we bust i.e. the Euro just Nam'd us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 00z NAM is trying to drop 6" of snow in ATL... now that would be something new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You want more rain? Thickness level over us is around 5500+. No way we'd see snow with thickness levels that high. Our max potential out of this is likely .25-.5 qpf. Anything more and we have temp issues, which I guess are the kind of problems we're hoping for at this rate come to think of it. Lol Come on mitch. We both know the navgem has a high thickness bias...or a wrong bias...one or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 27 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm not quite sure what the NAM is doing, but it ain't snowing on us, just eastern shore. Sorta looks like it's keying on an earlier vort. In any event, I read in the NE forum the NAM is being retired next year. What a failed experiment that was. Eta was better imho.. The NAM will eventually be retired, but it will NOT be in 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 40 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Temps aren't way too warm. Low/mid 30s at nighttime might be a stretch, but I'm assuming it would get colder depending on if we get heavier precip or not If there's no precip, it goes all the way to 40. The neg tilt works, but big storms need an arctic High. It will probably snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z NAM is trying to drop 6" of snow in ATL... now that would be something new fwiw, all NAM's (use em while u got em as per Mitch) seem to have ticked NW w/ QPF shield. Not worth a pinch of owl poop I know, but i'm searching for trends..... carry on....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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