BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not that I have been watching MJO closely but compared to others that have been posted over the last few days this is actually pretty crappy. Just barely broaches 7 before it takes a nosedive back into the COD Maybe, but people should realize chaos by now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, RobertRath said: this SER talk has me bummed! I’ve got a ski trip planned to snowshoe WVa just after Christmas. Sure looks “today” like it’s gonna be a warm trip. Anybody here from W VA? How bad does the SER affect that area? Thanks I mean, it should effect WVa slightly less so, especially if the SER is suppressed even a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: I mean, it should effect WVa slightly less so, especially if the SER is suppressed even a little bit. Also, see above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Maybe, but people should realize chaos by now! I agree, I don't think anything is locked in at this point. But the MJO chart you just posted basically agrees with us seeing a SW trough as there is no forcing (as it moves to the COD) to counteract the Nina influence. But I won't pretend to be an expert on the MJO so maybe I am misreading things here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 34 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not that I have been watching MJO closely but compared to others that have been posted over the last few days this is actually pretty crappy. Just barely broaches 7 before it takes a nosedive back into the COD That's the GEFS MJO plot. Here's a link that has the Euro MJO plot, which makes it into 8 that was posted earlier. That is the discrepancy. The MJO plots are near the bottom of the page at this link. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 22 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I will raise you el nino eta: expect changes of course That's likely in response to the 850 anomalies. If you go to that link I posted above, you can see that 850 anomalies in the western PAC have, and are forecasted to intensify, the Nino look. Temporary? Idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That's the GEFS MJO plot. Here's a link that has the Euro MJO plot, which makes it into 8 that was posted earlier. That is the discrepancy. The MJO plots are near the bottom of the page at this link. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html Nice link. I will have to save that one. Better look but we are still diving into COD as it is exiting 7. Trying to remember but for snow chances don't we want to see that going strong 8 through 1? And 2 later in the winter? 7 is basically a cold and dry look. Or am I misremembering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Nice link. I will have to save that one. Better look but we are still diving into COD as it is exiting 7. Trying to remember but for snow chances don't we want to see that going strong 8 through 1? And 2 later in the winter? 7 is basically a cold and dry look. Or am I misremembering? It's also different depending on when in winter. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ eta: It could theoretically ride the trend from start to finish for prime season values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Nice link. I will have to save that one. Better look but we are still diving into COD as it is exiting 7. Trying to remember but for snow chances don't we want to see that going strong 8 through 1? And 2 later in the winter? 7 is basically a cold and dry look. Or am I misremembering? The DJF correlation for 8-1-2 is colder (and potentially stormier) than normal in the east but it's just a correlation and not a guaranty. Amplitude of the wave is an important factor and no matter what the MJO does, it can still be overwhelmed by other factors. Models do utilize MJO phases progs just like enso for long range guidance so sometimes they are very accurate in the long range and other times they completely miss and major flips happen fairly abruptly. I look at the upcoming period in more simple terms and things I can easily relate to for sensible wx on the east coast. SE ridge has full agreement as does the +NAO. I know exactly what that means for my yard. How long it lasts will take a while to figure out but I've already set my expectations accordingly. The SE ridge is coming and the storm track is probably going to suck for a time. Past experience tells me that it's going to last longer than any of us want it to. Hope for the best and plan for the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 50 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Maybe, but people should realize chaos by now! The MJO forecast changing is due to the guidance picking up on new factors they previously didn't see not chaos. Things have cause/effect. Chaos is how people label things they cant understand. Just because we can't accurately forecast something doesn't mean its due to chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 Over 50 pages, so gonna start a new thread for the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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