CAPE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 EPS took a step back through day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 EPS looks a bit east if it’s 0z position for Friday-Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: EPS took a step back through day 8. Yeah, definitely a jump there. It's about the same through 5.5 then the dip becomes noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 There's an uptick in Euro Ensembles with significant snow in the next 10 days. Waiting for the full ensemble to come out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, definitely a jump there. It's about the same through 5.5 then the dip becomes noticeable. Its more suppressed/east than 0z for the late week deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 The control run is really pretty though, 3-6" for pretty much everyone here. More S&E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: The control run is really pretty though, 3-6" for pretty much everyone here. More S&E. For the Fri-Sat? Or all the way through Day 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 edit: that was 0z my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Euro EPS has some big stuff happening in the 10-15 range. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Bitter cold days 8-10+ on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Euro EPS has some big stuff happening in the 10-15 range. We'll see. Not surprising. I am not saying nothing can happen before then, but many have astutely pointed out we typically do better as this type of pattern matures and relaxes, not during the early stages. Once in a while we luck our way to something on the front end of these cold periods and those are the best because then we can have some extended snowcover and fun tracking, but more often then not we have to wait for a relaxation to have a significant threat. That period in the day 10-15 would fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Really surprised there isn't snow in this 1st wave. Maybe it'll sneak up in last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Euro EPS has some big stuff happening in the 10-15 range. We'll see. Day 10-13 sure looks nice at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Bitter cold days 8-10+ on the ensembles Oh thank goodness, I was super afraid it wouldn't be bone-numbingly cold while we are missing snow to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Bunch of really snowy ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Mean looks good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Oh thank goodness, I was super afraid it wouldn't be bone-numbingly cold while we are missing snow to our south. We need as much cold air as possible in these parts, in case you forgot. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: We need as much cold air as possible in these parts, in case you forgot. lol The kind of cold you all are chirping about tends to be dry as a bone, that much I recall from experience. Was privy to a -29 one Christmas Eve in central Ohio in the 80s. Clearest night sky I have ever seen. No snow anywhere around that air mass. I know this isn't to be THAT cold, but when people on here start getting all excited for frigid temps, I tend to immediately think they are courting dry at the same time. '09/'10 was NOT frigid. It was just right. Need moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: The kind of cold you all are chirping about tends to be dry as a bone, that much I recall from experience. Was privy to a -29 one Christmas Eve in central Ohio in the 80s. Clearest night sky I have ever seen. No snow anywhere around that air mass. I know this isn't to be THAT cold, but when people on here start getting all excited for frigid temps, I tend to immediately think they are courting dry at the same time. '09/'10 was NOT frigid. It was just right. Need moisture. excited?...no observation?...yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: The kind of cold you all are chirping about tends to be dry as a bone, that much I recall from experience. Was privy to a -29 one Christmas Eve in central Ohio in the 80s. Clearest night sky I have ever seen. No snow anywhere around that air mass. I know this isn't to be THAT cold, but when people on here start getting all excited for frigid temps, I tend to immediately think they are courting dry at the same time. '09/'10 was NOT frigid. It was just right. Need moisture. Yeah cold doesn't do it for me without snow cover. 10 degrees and brown dry leaves isn't fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: excited?...no observation?...yes My apologies, I wasn't saying you were excited yourself, but there are some on the board who get fired up over extremely negative temp departures in the winter. I am not one of them, mostly because such departures tend to kill real legit snow chances (unless we all want to chase to South Carolina...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: excited?...no observation?...yes Oh come on Mr. Freezemiser, you know you want the bone dry, brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 There's nothing like a 0 degree jebwalk first thing in the morning, over a nice dry bed of old leaves in the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Oh come on Mr. Freezemiser, you know you want the bone dry, brutal cold. OK, I admit it! I have a humidifier on my house furnace and know that many aren't as fortunate as me, so the thought of others suffering with static cling is a tolerable alternative to heavy snow imby. Doesn't everybody think like that???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 30 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Really surprised there isn't snow in this 1st wave. Maybe it'll sneak up in last few days. The models have sucked with the strength of the WAR the last several winters and continually strengthened it and moved systems west inside 4-5 days. I would not be surprised at all if this still ends up being an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Very hard to get below zero without snowpack. Ideal scenario is getting at least an inch or two down as early as possible so we aren't wasting cold upper levels on bare ground. Once that's established there's little point in getting more snow, just give me a HP with low wind and clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 LWX tossed in 40 POPS Friday night for snow for I-95 corridor in their 340 PM ZFPs... 50 POPS for St. Mary's and Calvert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, yoda said: LWX tossed in 40 POPS Friday night for snow for I-95 corridor in their 340 PM ZFPs... 50 POPS for St. Mary's and Calvert One more category and it gets to be snow likely. That’s enough to make me smile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Mount Holly doesn't sound too impressed- Friday through Saturday night...there are two main features we continue to watch through this period. First, a low developing on the previously mentioned cold front (by this time well southeast of our region), lifting northeast Friday into Saturday. Previously the GFS was showing this making a close approach to the region, but now it keeps the low well off shore, with little if any impacts for our area. Interestingly, while the ECMWF also keeps this well off shore (as it has shown for the last several model runs), it now depicts two slower lows propagating on the front. The second one is deep enough to possibly bring some precip to our region. For now though, I continue to favor a progressive and southeasterly solution with this feature, keeping PoPs around 20 to 30 percent through this time period, but not expecting major impacts for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Mount Holly doesn't sound too impressed- Friday through Saturday night...there are two main features we continue to watch through this period. First, a low developing on the previously mentioned cold front (by this time well southeast of our region), lifting northeast Friday into Saturday. Previously the GFS was showing this making a close approach to the region, but now it keeps the low well off shore, with little if any impacts for our area. Interestingly, while the ECMWF also keeps this well off shore (as it has shown for the last several model runs), it now depicts two slower lows propagating on the front. The second one is deep enough to possibly bring some precip to our region. For now though, I continue to favor a progressive and southeasterly solution with this feature, keeping PoPs around 20 to 30 percent through this time period, but not expecting major impacts for our region. My zone has a 0% chance of snow. I can only improve from there. And I can't get any worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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