Cobalt Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, supernovasky said: GFS snow totals. Someone make a thread quick or it will disappear forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 GFS shows frigid Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Someone make a thread quick or it will disappear forever Just wait til day 12.5... wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 With that kind of setup nothing is melting before the big man arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 This is acceptable. Weather it happens or not, a triple phaser during christmas week would fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Rest in piece our power lines Fantasy GFS is best GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Christmas night ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, supernovasky said: Christmas night ice storm. That's some heavy sleet. 2m temp is in the teens. Weather porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 If GFS were to verify (it won't, but storm near D9 will be something to track), we would have Big snowstorm a couple days before, one of the coldest Christmases in recent memory, and then 2" of ice and sleet on top of it. I like it, and I want to marry it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Christmas night ice storm. A 1043 isn't giving up like the redskins. Verification will be heavy snow before ice. Well that or rain and flip flops. One or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Another best run ever, more so then the last one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 The thing I like is that the GFS has been advertising stuff like this for the past week or so. I really like the potential of the pattern we are going into. Even if we torch for the beginning of it, the signal is wet, and no significant signal of torch. Maybe warm, but at worst 50 degrees and rain on Christmas, but at best 30 degrees and Blizzard. We just need the GEFS to be as good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: The thing I like is that the GFS has been advertising stuff like this for the past week or so. I really like the potential of the pattern we are going into. Even if we torch for the beginning of it, the signal is wet, and no significant signal of torch. Maybe warm, but at worst 50 degrees and rain on Christmas, but at best 30 degrees and Blizzard. We just need the GEFS to be as good And the EPS. That's the biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Let's not forget fantasy single digits and sub zeros to go along with our fantasy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 No wonder the board was down for a minute. Looks like a vintage December winter is back on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 I think the site was down for a bit. How did the GEFS look through Christmas? GFS looked great for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 The GEFS members aren't the only thing that's a little perturbed around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Just now, Conway7305 said: I think the site was down for a bit. How did the GEFS look through Christmas? GFS looked great for us. As per the GEFS, we're in average temperatures for the entire week of the 24th-29th. Worse than 12z, but better than 6z. Snow mean stays impressive during that time too. Honestly, I wouldn't put much weight in the temp anomalies for this far out. The models have all been jumpy, and have been nowhere near consistent. I think once we're within 240 hours, it's a much safer bet, especially in this situation. We're still on the positive side though, which is good. Don't be surprised if the models go from torch to cold back to torch again in the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I think the site was down for a bit. How did the GEFS look through Christmas? GFS looked great for us. Sadly, close to eps. But they'll change come thos time tomorrow, probably sooner! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sadly, close to eps. But they'll change come thos time tomorrow, probably sooner! Lol I only just like that the GFS showed snow within hour 240. Shows that at least the signal for an active precip period is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: I only just like that the GFS showed snow within hour 240. Shows that at least the signal for an active precip period is coming. Honestly, I can't remember when the ensembles have jumped around so much on any model suite. Frankly, GEPS has been pretty bullish with the cold for us. Maybe it does a repeat to last years excellent performance. We can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 37 minutes ago, Cobalt said: As per the GEFS, we're in average temperatures for the entire week of the 24th-29th. Worse than 12z, but better than 6z. Snow mean stays impressive during that time too. Honestly, I wouldn't put much weight in the temp anomalies for this far out. The models have all been jumpy, and have been nowhere near consistent. I think once we're within 240 hours, it's a much safer bet, especially in this situation. We're still on the positive side though, which is good. Don't be surprised if the models go from torch to cold back to torch again in the next few runs. I disagree about not weighting temp anomalies. That's a clear indicator that the 18z gefs has more members slowing down the boundary. It was a step towards the EPS. Not a bad run but if looking for trends it wasn't in the right direction. We know there's going to be a very important boundary approaching down the line. The slower it moves the lower the chances of getting on the good side before xmas. The ens didn't support the op's deep winter look d8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I disagree about not weighting temp anomalies. That's a clear indicator that the 18z gefs has more members slowing down the boundary. It was a step towards the EPS. Not a bad run but if looking for trends it wasn't in the right direction. We know there's going to be a very important boundary approaching down the line. The slower it moves the lower the chances of getting on the good side before xmas. The ens didn't support the op's deep winter look d8+ I agree. After looking at the temp profiles of the GEFS they resembled yesterday's 18z. Not great. Bit better but not deep winter. 10 days folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I agree. After looking at the temp profiles of the GEFS they resembled yesterday's 18z. Not great. Bit better but not deep winter. 10 days folks. I scanned through the members and it's a pretty equal split between holding the boundary back and pushing it through. I agree with Wes' post earlier about things probably going slower than we want. Models often rush things but as long as things get right at some point before the month is out we'll all be pretty happy. One more moderate event and Dec goes down as a very good start to met winter. One big event and it's the best start since 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 8-14day ^wet I don't know why CPC does this La Nina stuff -- it doesn't make sense: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 I really hope that this reloads in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, iFred said: I really hope that this reloads in January. I believe at one point during January, it certainly will. EPO and MJO are going into favorable periods, and we haven't had a -NAO in a while, so there's the potential of that tanking early January. Even if we torch early-mid Jan, you can tell from the get go that this winter will most likely not torch like last winter did. Could be wrong, but it looks more favorable than last year. Wetter Fall, slightly colder fall as well. Hopefully this translates to the rest of the Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 It was interesting that even with that horrid 500mb look on the EPS, the surface temps were basically near normal, even below normal at times. I'm not sure entirely what that means, but I would guess (without being able to look at individual members) that there's a huge spread on positioning of the boundary. You see the huge range of predicted surface high temps on the EPS meteogram on wx.graphics. Almost 50F of spread for the end of the run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Good news is that we will most certainly not have a 70 degree Christmas. SE ridge will most likely not cause that warm of a Christmas. EPS shows 0% chance of a max temp above 70 on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 I'm looking forward to when the boundary timing is locked in on the ops at reasonable range and the waffling back and forth is over. Gfs will probably waffle back and bury the trough in the southwest and then the gefs will speed things up again....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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