Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,610
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I reload the page and see snow maps with greens and pinks over MBY and I started pants tenting and then zoom in to see the dates. Damn all y’all teasers.

Trend since the 18z disaster are sweet. And this isn't way out in 15 day land either. I'm starting to feel relieved. Love the alignment on the 12z run. 

xcox49x.gif

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

CAD sig is showing up strong on the ens mean. Can't say that happens often way out in time... Some of those epic ice solutions we're seeing on the GFS from time to time could be real too. The EPS has the same general idea with the MSLP plots d10-15. Chances of an ice storm for someone in the east seem to be increasing as we move forward in time. Hopefully we are far enough north but I'll embrace an ice storm. EJ might be chasing a montreal redux. LOL

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_55.png

 

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_55.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cae

cae

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

During the summer I would think the verification scores are a fairly accurate reflection for our region as well. I am not so sure when it comes to the winter (late fall, early spring as well), at least at times. As we all know, what is paramount with most on these boards is snow so what we are concerned with is how do the models verify for short periods of time within our region. Considering the east coast (coastal waters) is quite often a volatile region , where the difference between storm, weak storm, no storm is often a fine a line to draw, one actually wants to know how the models verify within that specific small period of time within a fairly small scope of area. This is where I think the disconnect between verification and the handling of an actual storm comes into play quite often. So while a model may be aces across the board (N Hemi) with the macro features and verify high I think often enough they fail with the micro features in our small corner of the world (all of which is lost in the wash) to warrant some skepticism. I myself will put some weight into the verification scores but I think I place more weight on watching the actual model runs for those specific periods of time to form my own conclusions. It's a continual learning process as quite often a model may handle one setup extremely well and yet fail miserably in another setup. This is part of what makes tracking fun for me. The uncertainty and trying to guess where a model is headed.

I agree - the North American verification scores are correlated with what happens around here, but the correlation isn't perfect.  On average, the verification scores get the story about right though.  The models that perform the best globally also tend to perform the best in North America and also tend to perform the best locally, even (from what I've seen) for snow events.  But course the average verification scores are just averages -- there's a lot of fluctuation in the scores day-to-day.  That's why we can't just sit back and watch the Euro and call it a day.  Unless the Euro says we're getting a HECS.  Then it's totally justified.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...