BristowWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Hopefully we can get an assist from the MJO as we close out the year Never did understand what that does fr us. If the AO/NAO don't cooperate it seems this is useless even in promise land territory we are headed. I have been studying up because I know many get enthused with 7/8/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Mean precip from the 23rd-28th jumps up a full inch and a half. Whoever gets on the wintry precip side of that Christmas event will probably cash in big time.. DTW is my guess..PIT maybe. 12 days until Xmas. Imagine our fate will be determined sooner.going to take a huge turnaround to save Xmas for us. Clouds and rain I can deal with but 65 sunny I will have to surrender my soul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, BristowWx said: DTW is my guess..PIT maybe. 12 days until Xmas. Imagine our fate will be determined sooner.going to take a huge turnaround to save Xmas for us. Clouds and rain I can deal with but 65 sunny I will have to surrender my soul. Odds of temps over 50: 30-35% if seems. Not that bad odds judging our situation with a storm potentially going to our North. A shift 50 miles South could have us sitting at 40 degrees as a high. Odds above 70: Again, very low. Don't like even seeing odds there, but a less than 5% chance As compared to a 30-50% chance of low temperature being sub-freezing (Our first time in 4 years?) Maybe if that cold gets in early like I mentioned earlier with the temporary potential cold from the 21st-22nd, maybe we could get some wintry precip on the 23rd or 24th. Maybe some CAD action. Probably unlikely, but not fully unsupported. This is all based on the EPS, which probably has the most weight this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: That's one heck of a snow pack on the op 18z gfs 384 hour total in the eastern US ...sag it south 150 miles and were swimming in snow ...not too much to ask for a 10 to 16 day lead. Only 3 ensemble members completely shut us out through day 15. We surely have a chance to get some end of the month events. Get 1, and I'd say this is a December to remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 seriously....how did we get here. How did this long awaited pattern change end up lasting 44 seconds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 seriously....how did we get here. How did this long awaited pattern change end up lasting 44 seconds?December to remember........remember how good this epic advertised pattern once looked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 21 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Never did understand what that does fr us. If the AO/NAO don't cooperate it seems this is useless even in promise land territory we are headed. I have been studying up because I know many get enthused with 7/8/1 A decent MJO wave can help contribute to the AO and/or NAO going negative. There was a good thread discussing it here some years back, and in the thread our own Usedtobe links to some other threads as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 8 minutes ago, Ji said: seriously....how did we get here. How did this long awaited pattern change end up lasting 44 seconds? December to remember........remember how good this epic advertised pattern once looked? well it never looked snowy--just cold and dry(like tonight which is miserable) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 17 minutes ago, Ji said: well it never looked snowy--just cold and dry(like tonight which is miserable) That's true. It never looked warm/wet until recently. At least we are not inside 5 days. I think CAD might save torch. But not give us wintry precip. Just keep it below 50. But a complete turn around only seems to happen cold to warm. How did we get here? Quote of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: That's true. It never looked warm/wet until recently. At least we are not inside 5 days. I think CAD might save torch. But not give us wintry precip. Just keep it below 50. But a complete turn around only seems to happen cold to warm. How did we get here? Quote of the month. Still honestly better than a warmup during our best climo, that is mid-late January. I think by that time this pattern is reloaded and we're back into cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Never did understand what that does fr us. If the AO/NAO don't cooperate it seems this is useless even in promise land territory we are headed. I have been studying up because I know many get enthused with 7/8/1 The AO/NAO tends to trend along with it imo. Late December looks much better to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 54 minutes ago, Ji said: seriously....how did we get here. How did this long awaited pattern change end up lasting 44 seconds? Technically the change happened leading into thanksgiving so it's been around a while. We scored an event and look to prob fail on the rest. All in all that's a success but since it wasn't below freezing for 24 hours a day for weeks on end with snow piling up every three days it feels like a failure. We'll prob get some sort of jacked up lucky well timed event right in the middle of SE Ridgeville to remind us that good patterns are often wasted and many of our events happen for weird reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 17 hours ago, showmethesnow said: @cae If J.B. 2.0 swears by it during the winter it can't be all that bad. Right? Nice post. With weatherbell output marginal at best with the CMC I have found I have fallen to the wayside on using the CMC for anything more then verification for the other models. After reading your post I may have to give more weight to the CMC in the future. The one thing I have noticed over the years though, is that quite often a model may score higher overall during a given period of time and yet a lower verifying model would actually perform much better through our general region with the setup. Now this was due to the broad brush of the verification to that of the N hemi/N American (maybe a little smaller scale?) and not a more regional look. Now it has been some years since I really looked into the hows and whys of the verification process so maybe things have changed. So I guess I am asking, if you know, have they narrowed verifications to a smaller scale with a more regional look to give a better representation for our neck of the woods? Again, nice write up. Thanks. I'd love to see regional verification scores, but as far as I know they don't exist (at least publicly). The best I've found so far for our region is the North American verification score. It doesn't perfectly reflect what's going on around here, but it's better than I would have guessed. I think that's because a models tend to get things wrong in our region when they get the broader pattern wrong across North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 This actually looks good though, all things considered. NAO is trying to go negative. Nice 10 Day Stratosphere warming. Models may trend colder in the day 3-7 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 GFS not so bad. When we have a Stratosphere warming happening, it's cold 80% of the time. There is a nice healthy event happening through the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: GFS not so bad. When we have a Stratosphere warming happening, it's cold 80% of the time. There is a nice healthy event happening through the 21st. lol no there isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Much wetter pattern probably has to do with MJO wave (Check out the Low pressure south of greenland 55hr to 95hr. never seen the nao behave this way before.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 If we can keep that 540 line south of us... 00z GFS is advertising an intriguing run up to Christmas. Note the 486DM 1000-500mb thicknesses in NE MN into Canada... that might help in keeping us on the right side of the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: If we can keep that 540 line south of us... 00z GFS is advertising an intriguing run up to Christmas. Note the 486DM 1000-500mb thicknesses in NE MN into Canada... that might help in keeping us on the right side of the boundary Well it shows Christmas morning snow this run so it’s a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 big difference between the 18z and 00z for Christmas. Winter cancel cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Ji said: big difference between the 18z and 00z for Christmas. Winter cancel cancel 40 degree difference at 00z Dec 25 between the 2 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 00z Going for the stronger ridge bridge....and dif location of EPO ridge. Hoping this is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 00z Going for the stronger ridge bridge....and dif location of EPO ridge. Hoping this is a trend. It very well may be.https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/stratosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, Ji said: 40 degree difference at 00z Dec 25 between the 2 runs Mitch approves. Right side of the boundary this run. Now we have to hope the 18z gefs initialized with tequila. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 18z on top 00z bottom...I'm stepping away from the ledge. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Can I predict big snowstorm last week of December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 hours ago, poolz1 said: 18z on top 00z bottom...I'm stepping away from the ledge. lol Looks like the 12z GEFS panel I posted earlier. I commented on the look and was optimistic about where it might be headed with the -epo and possible rebuilding of HL blocking. Throw out the 18z run, and we have a nice trend away from any prolonged retrogression with a western US trough. EPS looks much the same, improving over the last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 0z EPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like the 12z GEFS panel I posted earlier. I commented on the look and was optimistic about where it might be headed with the -epo and possible rebuilding of HL blocking. Throw out the 18z run, and we have a nice trend away from any prolonged retrogression and a deep SW trough. EPS looks much the same, improving over the last 2 runs. Yes things do look better on 0z. At least GFS. Not sure about the other models. Puts us on the right side so speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 0z EPS: Now I know. SW trough idea not so much here. Better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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