CAPE Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 We need more mountain torque is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 hours ago, Ji said: JB going cold and snowy That's a shock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 hours ago, H2O said: It’s not something in the stratosphere that’s off Apparently he does golf tips too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 The snow is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Sprawling HP at day 9 on the gfs...not bad. Saw that too. Even if it returns to torch past 240, I'm happier with this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Hour 234 vs last run's hour 240 Last run's 240: I'd say we're making progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 41 as a high for Christmas. I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 In all honesty I would rather have a relaxation of the pattern in late December than in late January. Please keep in mind that December snow is bonus snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Work keeps getting in the way of looking at weather models...but today that was a good thing. LOL. 18z gfs was about as hideous as it comes in the LR. At least we get some good precip after being cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I wouldn't be surprised if the big dig into the SW ends up being persistent for a time. Makes sense. They've basically had a static ridge for a few weeks. The rubber band is snapping back to even things out. That bad part for us is with a +nao, the SE ridge will flex more than we want. Ens guidance is definitely moving towards that type of config hanging around vs hit and run like when it first showed up a few days ago. The silver lining is the cold loading pattern in canada is pretty strong so the way out of the ridge/warmth can be abrupt. Much better to have an unfavorable pattern with a quick way out instead of an AK or goa vortex roasting Canada. That's a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Work keeps getting in the way of looking at weather models...but today that was a good thing. LOL. 18z gfs was about as hideous as it comes in the LR. At least we get some good precip after being cold and dry. The h5 pattern seems to progress with noticeable improvement towards day 15 on the ensembles. A bit more so on the GEFS. Looks like the +heights from that monster EPO ridge build over into the AO/NAO domain, trough moves east, and the WAR is suppressed somewhat. Lets hope this has some semblance of reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Not hating this look. Its way out there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Cape, don't look at the 18z gefs. Especially after d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Cape, don't look at the 18z gefs. Especially after d10. Off run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Looks like we going be livin' on the edge at best, post relaxation. Btw, this semi-epic advertised cold/full of potential pattern seems to be a bit short lived, eh? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Off run We're def trending into a se ridge right now on the ens. Right or wrong, the trend is hard to ignore. When the gefs first picked up on it I was hoping it was on its own but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not hating this look. Its way out there though. 12z EPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cape, don't look at the 18z gefs. Especially after d10. Being one to believe in seasonal patterns, they may be a signal to a pattern change. Notice the ridge displaced north/west of Alaska from our optimal location. That was present for a week or so in November, if you recall, before the pattern changed and what I posted told me we'd have blocking this winter. Look for a return to a favorable pattern the end of December or early January IF the pattern repeats. Also, all should recall the great winter of 95/96 had several very warm interruptions through the winter after the blizzard. Am I saying we'll have another 95/96? No, but I am ahead of snowfall at this point in the season vs. 95/96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Lets see where the 0z runs go from here. We are certainly seeing pretty strong indications of a western trough/SE ridge on the ensembles for a time. Question is how persistent it will be. If HL blocking can build back into the AO/NAO domains, it should be relatively short lived. GEFS ens forecasts are suggesting this may be the case, with the AO/NAO possibly trending negative towards the end of the month. Of course, we have seen this (many times) before, and it almost always falls short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Being one to believe in seasonal patterns, they may be a signal to a pattern change. Notice the ridge displaced north/west of Alaska from our optimal location. That was present for a week or so in November, if you recall, before the pattern changed and what I posted told me we'd have blocking this winter. Look for a return to a favorable pattern the end of December or early January IF the pattern repeats. Also, all should recall the great winter of 95/96 had several very warm interruptions through the winter after the blizzard. Am I saying we'll have another 95/96? No, but I am ahead of snowfall at this point in the season vs. 95/96. I don't disagree with you or think we're doomed. Just pointing out the trend. My guess is if the d10-15 mean look does happen that it will probably bother us for a couple weeks. As long as canada doesn't go all Agung on us we can get back in the game really quick. As quick as a single strong front. The bothersome part of the look is its a pretty wet setup but lacking in the frozen dept. Would be a bit of a gut punch to have a rainy holiday week. Plenty of time before worrying about that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I agree that 0z should offer an idea of what direction we are heading in the LR.... 12z GEFS, 12z EPS and 12z GEPS look to pretty much agree on things...18z GEFS the odd run. For now at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't disagree with you or think we're doomed. Just pointing out the trend. My guess is if the d10-15 mean look does happen that it will probably bother us for a couple weeks. As long as canada doesn't go all Agung on us we can get back in the game really quick. As quick as a single strong front. The bothersome part of the look is its a pretty wet setup but lacking in the frozen dept. Would be a bit of a gut punch to have a rainy holiday week. Plenty of time before worrying about that though. The good thing is that we know the ensembles as depicted today will not be precise reality in 12-16 days. Therefore, we could end of on the right side of the gradient. Likewise, even if we start out on the wrong side, it should shift south as we enter the heart of winter in January-February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Back in November when the current pattern including last week was being advertised in the day 10 -15 range there were more then a few op and ensemble runs that wanted to dump lots of energy in the sw ...they fairly quickly adjusted . My money is on that disaster feature adjusting and verifying not near as severe . I agree with Mitch..pattern reload fairly quickly...hopefully Pattern would reload just in time for the annual early Jan icebox, so it should check out pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The good thing is that we know the ensembles as depicted today will not be precise reality in 12-16 days. Therefore, we could end of on the right side of the gradient. Likewise, even if we start out on the wrong side, it should shift south as we enter the heart of winter in January-February. Hopefully we're staring at some sort of reload in 10 days or so. Agree about the gradient. It's going to move around and there looks to be abundant cold in canada for the foreseeable future. The one troubling thing is while the ens don't agree on the trough axis down the line, they do all agree that the nao is going to work against us. We're pretty used to that though. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hopefully we're staring at some sort of reload in 10 days or so. Agree about the gradient. It's going to move around and there looks to be abundant cold in canada for the foreseeable future. The one troubling thing is while the ens don't agree on the trough axis down the line, they do all agree that the nao is going to work against us. We're pretty used to that though. Lol Reading other forums here at American, and came across the mention that as soon as the cold pool emerged South of Greenland this week, last week, etc., all the computer models turned away from forecasting a - NAO . Whether that continues to be the case for Jan and Feb not sure. I also believe we never had the conducive SST profile to begin with regarding a seasonal - NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Somehow I did not envision the chance of a SE ridge and losing the -NAO. Some of the looks in fantasy model land were so epic I thought the party would roll on for epic December. I need to put my expectations in check more often as I think I can see where this headed. SE ridges are stubborn like cockroaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Next week looks better temperature-wise Not sure about the implications, but a bout of wintry weather that becomes that 240 hour + event is seen at the end of the run. Cold is so close in Canada but yet so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Hopefully we can get an assist from the MJO as we close out the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Week after Christmas looks like a doozy. I think we'll have a lot of chances of snow/rain events following Christmas and on to New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Mean precip from the 23rd-28th jumps up a full inch and a half. Whoever gets on the wintry precip side of that Christmas event will probably cash in big time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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