WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I know our crew knows this, but Christmas is still 13 days away. Not sure if there's any piece of guidance to put faith in, good or bad. Yeah, I know I'm just stating the obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 25-35% is above climo for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: 25-35% is above climo for our area. Hypothetically, if Christmas is warm and/or rainy but the rest of the week shows promise then I don't care nearly as much one way or another. That's what the EPS/GEFS look like right now. We haven't seen a 10-15d prog do well yet so I'm not jumping on anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hypothetically, if Christmas is warm and/or rainy but the rest of the week shows promise then I don't care nearly as much one way or another. That's what the EPS/GEFS look like right now. We haven't seen a 10-15d prog do well yet so I'm not jumping on anything. Yeah, I agree. After this week, all you can say is that the weather looks active and changeable and the guidance has been far from steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Hypothetically, if Christmas is warm and/or rainy but the rest of the week shows promise then I don't care nearly as much one way or another. That's what the EPS/GEFS look like right now. We haven't seen a 10-15d prog do well yet so I'm not jumping on anything. THIS.... yea the few actual white christmasses were amazing, 2002 probably my favorite because the 4" of wet paste was totally unexpected and happened christmas morning so it was a legit real white xmas and it totally covered the grass unlike some of the others...but second to that if we get snow sometime within the christmas week its good to me. I just like the idea of hearing holiday music and seeing the lights with snow on the ground. Makes the season feel more right. Even the event we just had satisfied me a bit but it was a bit early, rather have it within a few days of xmas on either side. But I am generally with you as long as its not a torch the entire period I am ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hypothetically, if Christmas is warm and/or rainy but the rest of the week shows promise then I don't care nearly as much one way or another. That's what the EPS/GEFS look like right now. We haven't seen a 10-15d prog do well yet so I'm not jumping on anything. I like your thinking. Seems like week after Christmas towards new years has a chance to be cold/wet. First ever blizzard that spans over different years maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 When I see an EPO ridge forecasted like the latest EPS, it is no surprise to see a MSLP prog like the one below. I know '13-14 has been thrown around a lot but this does remind a bit of what we would see in the long range or what the models "dont see" in the long range. A D13 mean has a 1030 ridge over the upper midwest, which is pretty impressive imo...low level cold is going to push its way into what looks like a warm h5 map. I could envision the models sniffing this out as we get toward midweek next week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Yes while the H5 maps looks warm with ridging, the temperature anomalies along the east coast aren’t torch worthy. The pattern as progged seems to leave the door open for messy mixed bag storms, but not an all out torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I mean, if you want to trust the CFS, cold from Christmas to new year. Seems to be similar to ensembles, at least after Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 As far as unmitigated disasters go, the GFS is a great example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, WhiteoutWX said: Yes while the H5 maps looks warm with ridging, the temperature anomalies along the east coast aren’t torch worthy. The pattern as progged seems to leave the door open for messy mixed bag storms, but not an all out torch. 12z GFS said hold my beer. The signal seems pretty consistent for a big storm around Christmas at least. But models heading in wrong direction for snow prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 There is about an 80-90 degree difference in the US on 2mT at hr 384 comparing VA to MT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 About as big a swing in the models in the long range as I can remember. From the heavens to hell. When you see such huge temp range across the country...you can be sure the arctic air is in the west and the summer in the east/southeast. Bah-humbug! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 On a positive, if the GFS was showing a huge snowstorm in the same timeframe nobody would believe it true....or....hey guys it's only December 12th....or....let's wait for the GEFS....or....the euro will save us....or Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Do you think winter is over? You seem to be in a 'gathering' type mode today....I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Do you think winter is over? did JI ask you to post this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Man, this went from a legit long-range thread to the Panic Room in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: did JI ask you to post this? No, Ji would have come out right away and said winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Nice trend. Models are again doing something weird with the NAO and storms at 156hr (it's too deep). Maybe this will start trend -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 One model shows a Xmas torch and its abandon ship? Since when do we see 1 run and go with it? Yeah. I know. When it shows fail. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 must be that strat warming that wasn't there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 The MJO will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 this promising winter crumbled in a hurry.....back to normal in DC. Missed threats and cold snaps that go from 6 weeks to 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The MJO will save us. JB going cold and snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Something in the atmosphere is off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Something in the atmosphere is off That's next Monday. We know next week is gonna be warm, but not hot. If you mean the average temperature anomaly North of Virginia which is squished in between warmer than average temps, I'm guessing that's just CAD for the potential storm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Stratosphere warming is very potent on models through Dec 23. It began Dec 9. This this time of the year, Stratosphere warmings have a correlation with NAO on 30-35 day lead time. This is strong -NAO/AO signal for Jan 9-28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 43 minutes ago, Ji said: this promising winter crumbled in a hurry.....back to normal in DC. Missed threats and cold snaps that go from 6 weeks to 6 days Promises are cheap if more than five days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 57 minutes ago, Ji said: JB going cold and snowy Kiss of death..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 It’s not something in the stratosphere that’s off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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